While the Edmonton Elks are off to a surprising 3-0 start, the winless BC Lions are in complete free fall to begin the 2026 season.
With the Elks' offense firing on all cylinders and their defense proving stingy through the first three games, I expect the road team to prevail as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday in Kelowna.
Find out more in my Elks vs. Lions predictions and Week 5 CFL picks for July 4.
Who will win Elks vs Lions: Elks (-130)
As good as Nathan Rourke is, having the defending MOP at quarterback won't matter if your defense can't get a stop.
The BC Lions are staring at an 0-3 start, and their defense has been the primary culprit. QBs are completing 79% of their pass attempts against Mike Benevides’ unit, and the Leos are surrendering touchdown drives on 36.1% of possessions.
Don't expect the Leos' defense to magically turn things around against the Edmonton Elks, as starting linebacker Ben Hladik and veteran defensive back T.J. Lee are both listed as questionable, while corner Garry Peters has yet to suit up this season after posting All-Star campaigns in 2022 and 2023.
Cody Fajardo has been steady under center through three games with Edmonton, and running back Justin Rankin has hit the ground running by leading the league in rushing yards and boasting 14 carries of 10+ yards and five of 20+. Meanwhile, the Elks' defense is allowing a league-best 22.7 points per game to start the season.
Lions special teams coordinator Cory McDiarmid was relieved of his duties after BC's Week 4 loss to Calgary, and there’s no reason to bet on BC until more heads roll.
Playable to -150.
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Elks vs Lions total prediction: Over 58.5 (-108)
Opposing offenses have averaged 7.75 yards per play against the Leos, forcing BC into a pass-heavy game script for three straight games. Rourke has surpassed 290+ passing yards in all of those contests, with BC’s offense averaging 29.0 points per game — the majority coming in the second half.
One area where Edmonton has struggled is penalties, totaling a league-high 29 alongside Calgary. Until Edmonton proves more disciplined, the Lions could benefit from drawing a few calls to keep the scoreboard churning.
COVERS INTEL: BC’s offense has generated only five "big plays" this season (20+ yard rushes or 30+ yard passes), ranking dead last in the CFL.Elks vs Lions same-game parlay
I have no problem laying the spread with Edmonton, and I project the Elks as 2.5-point favorites in the latest CFL odds.
The Apple Bowl doesn't provide nearly enough of a home-field advantage for the Leos, with the outdoor venue seating fewer than 2,500 fans.
Edmonton is 3-0 ATS this season, while the Lions have helped cash the full-game Over in all three of their matches to start the year.
Elks vs Lions SGP
- Elks -1.5
- Over 58.5
Elks vs Lions weather
The forecast in Kelowna calls for sunny skies and a high of 27C, with light winds of 10-15 km/h.
Elks vs Lions odds
- Spread: Elks -1.5 (-110) | Lions +1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Elks -130 | Lions +110
- Over/Under: Over 58.5 (-108) | Under 58.5 (-112)
Elks vs Lions key injuries
Elks: Joe Robustelli WR (Questionable), Brett Boyko OL (Out), Brock Morgensen LB (Out), Royce Metchie DB (Out).
Lions: Ben Hladik LB (Questionable), T.J. Lee DB (Questionable), Levi Bell DL (Questionable), Kieran Poissant WR (Out), Maxime Rouyer LB (Out).
Elks vs Lions trend
Edmonton is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games dating back to last season.
How to watch Elks vs Lions and game info
| Location | Apple Bowl, Kelowna, BC |
| Date | Saturday, July 4, 2026 |
| Kick-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | TSN |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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