In possibly the most highly anticipated series of the 2026 NBA Playoffs, the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder kick off the Western Conference Final tonight.
To get you ready for the action, our computers have been working overtime to bring you the best NBA player prop projections.
It's all part of our full Spurs vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks for Monday, May 18.
Spurs vs Thunder computer picks for Game 1
 Spurs |
 Thunder |
|---|---|
| Fox o16.5 points +100 |
Hartenstein o7.5 points -110 |
| Vassell o11.5 points -112 |
Dort o5.5 points -130 |
| Wembanyama o1.5 threes -110 |
Gilgeous-Alexander u6.5 assists -105 |
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout!
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game NBA moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your team goes up by 20+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review!
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Spurs Game 1 computer picks
De'Aaron Fox Over 16.5 points (+100)
Projection: 17.61 points
Some books have De'Aaron Fox's scoring line listed at 15.5, but we're getting even money on him clearing 16.5 at bet365. Either way, Fox is projected to go Over the number as he's expected to flirt with 18 points tonight.
The San Antonio Spurs guard has 16+ points in nine of his last 10, and is averaging 21.6 points per game over his last five road games.
Devin Vassell Over 11.5 points (-112)
Projection: 12.84 points
While Devin Vassell has only gone Over 11.5 points in five of his last 10 games, he fared better against the Timberwolves than the Trail Blazers, topping this number in four of six.
The Spurs have the highest-scoring offense on the road over the last 25 away games, and all hands will need to be on deck against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Victor Wembanyama Over 1.5 made threes (-110)
Projection: 2.01 made threes
Victor Wembanyama didn't take a ton of shots from deep against the Trail Blazers, but he hit 2+ threes in three of his six games against the Timberwolves.
When it comes to treys, the Spurs' remarkable 37.5% rate of converted threes when playing on the road settles in as the fifth-highest in the league over the last 20 games.
🔥 Bet Wembanyama Now at bet365!
Thunder Game 1 computer picks
Isaiah Hartenstein Over 7.5 points (Odds)
Projection: 9.53 points
Despite coming up short in the series-clincher vs. the Lakers, Isaiah Hartenstein has topped 7.5 points in eight of 10, including eight straight before the last game.
The Thunder will likely see a spike in opportunities in this contest from sharing the court with the fifth-speediest tempo offense in the league over the last five games.
Projections are generally bullish on Hartenstein, expecting him to also go Over his 8.5 rebounds and 2.5 assists line.
🔥 Bet Hartenstein Now at bet365!
Lu Dort Over 5.5 points (-130)
Projection: 7.33 points
This is such a low number, and while Lu Dort has missed it on occasion, he's still nabbed at least six points in seven of his last 10 games.
Similar to Hartenstein, the Thunder are expected to distribute scoring in a tougher matchup, looking for contributions up and down the roster against San Antonio.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 6.5 assists (-105)
Projection: 6.03 assists
This may be a bit of a sweat, especially as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has finished north of 6.5 assists in eight of his last 10.
But this is a massive step up in competition, and the Thunder's fifth-worst offensive rebounding offense may be exposed by the Spurs, while SGA becomes more of a scorer than a facilitator.
In four games against the Spurs this season, SGA finished with fewer than seven assists three times.
How to watch Spurs vs Thunder Game 1
| Location | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date | Monday, May 18, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
