Spurs vs Mavericks Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Betting an Out-of-Whack Wemby Prop

Much like when he was labeled “the next Michael Jordan,” there have been lots of young players dubbed “the best prospect since LeBron James” that fell well short of expectations.

But leading the San Antonio Spurs and Dallas Mavericks against each other on Wednesday, February 14 are two of the few players that have lived up to that lofty billing in Victor Wembanyama and Luka Doncic.

Victor is fresh off etching his name in the history books with a rare triple-double with blocks, while Doncic is pushing the boundaries of individual usage, production, and efficiency at every step of his career. By the NBA odds, the Mavericks are heavy favorites to win on Wednesday, but that doesn’t mean that Wemby won’t have another special performance.

My NBA picks and predictions for Spurs vs. Mavericks believe Victor is going to dominate the boards against Dallas.

Spurs vs Mavericks odds

Spurs vs Mavericks predictions

Victor Wembanyama has all but locked up the Rookie of the Year odds race. While it was a close-run thing against Chet Holmgren through the early months of the season, Victor’s transition to full time starting center has seen his per-minute production reach absurd new heights.

His latest feat? A 27 point, 14 rebounds, 10 blocks, five assists, and two steals game against the Toronto Raptors. That he did it all in less than 30 minutes of action should be scary to other teams hoping to compete for a title four or five years down the road.

While his blocks and scoring get most of the headlines, Wemby has transformed into an elite rebounder as well. But oddsmakers are still skeptical of his dominance on the glass, which is why these Victor Wembanyama odds are still available at just 9.5.

Given his matchup advantages on Wednesday, that doesn’t make a lot of sense. The Dallas Mavericks are one of the worst rebounding teams in the Association. Per Cleaning the Glass, they rank Bottom-5 in offensive and defensive rebounding rate.

Derrick Lively II is a middling rebounder as part of their starting five, and they have a series of small guards who provide little resistance against opposing bigs crashing the glass.

While their trade deadline reinforcements might help in other areas, the battle on the boards is not one of them. PJ Washington is consistently one of the worst rebounding power forwards year in and year out while Daniel Gafford is also solidly below average on the defensive glass.

On that note, Wemby’s rebounding prop was set as high as 12.5 when he played against the Washington Wizards on January 29. Washington is the worst rebounding team in the NBA, but it’s worth considering that was in part because Gafford was their starting center.

Dallas isn’t much better than the Wizards on the glass, and they might have gotten worse with these new additions. Lively is officially questionable for today’s game, but even if he plays, I’d expect Victor to match up against Gafford for at least one significant stretch of this game. 

Wemby had had 10 or more rebounds in eight of his last 11 games and is averaging 10.3 in that span. I’m expecting more of the same from him on Wednesday.

My best bet: Victor Wembanyama Over 9.5 rebounds (-136 at FanDuel)

Spurs vs Mavericks same-game parlay

Victor Wembanyama Over 9.5 rebounds

Over 239.5

Luka Doncic Over 9.5 assists

+423 at FanDuel

Taking the Over as part of my same-game parlay is as simple as betting against the public. It’s rare to see a line like this drop so far without a significant injury report update. This line has dropped a full five points from where it opened, and I thought that opening number was reasonable value. 

Lastly, while many are focusing on the defensive value that Gafford and Washington can theoretically add to the new-look Mavericks, I’m more inclined to see how they’ll further maximize the Mavs on offense. 

Washington is a worse shooter than Grant Williams who he replaced, but he can also do more with the ball. 

Gafford is another legit lob threat for Luka Doncic, and having another rim running center gives him so many ways he can rack up assists. Doncic is averaging 10.6 assists over his last 10 games.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Spurs vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis

Dallas opened as -12.5 point favorites against the San Antonio Spurs, but that’s fallen to between -11.5 to -10.5 at most sportsbooks.

Nobody would mistakenly believe that the Spurs are good this season, but they have made key strides over the last month or so. By doing the simple things like moving Victor to center on defense, getting him easier looks on offense, and tying his minutes to Tre Jones, the Spurs have become (somewhat) respectable.

They’re no longer double-digits negative in overall net rating, and over the past two weeks have sported a Top-10 defense per Cleaning the Glass.

Getting Gafford was costly, but it gives the Mavericks a higher floor overall. In games past when Lively was injured or otherwise limited, they simply went to pieces. Now they have 48 minutes of legitimate (if unspectacular) play at the five. That kind of competence is probably enough for them to win by double digits.

Still, the Mavericks have been a relatively disappointing home team. They’re just 12-17 against the spread in the American Airlines Center this season.

Wednesday’s total came in as high as 244.5, but early money on the Under has seen that come way down to between 239 and 239.5.

While the Spurs are still a mess on offense the Mavericks rank Top-10 on offense and 20th on defense. Luka and Kyrie Irving with a spread floor is a nasty combination, and the level of shooting they bring can somewhat neutralize Wemby’s importance as a rim deterrent. 

While the Spurs have shown improvements on defense of late, they haven’t proven enough of late to justify a five-point drop from the opening total.

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Spurs vs Mavericks betting trend to know

The Mavericks are 12-17 ATS at home this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Spurs vs. Mavericks.

Spurs vs Mavericks game info

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