NBA futures for league leaders in points, rebounds, and assists are usually pretty chalky — the favorites often dominate.
However, I wanted to dig deeper and find some longer-shot plays with real upside.
Think Bradley Beal’s 30.5 points-per-game breakout or Hassan Whiteside’s 14.1 rebounds-per-game surge — unexpected leaps that cashed props for bettors.
Here are three NBA picks that offer strong value to lead the NBA in points, rebounds, or assists per game this season.
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NBA Points, Assists, and Rebounds Leaders Best Bets
| Award | Player/Coach | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game leader |  Jaylen Brown |
+6000 at DraftKings |
| Rebounds per game leader |  Jalen Duren |
+6000 at DraftKings |
| Assists per game leader |  Josh Giddey |
+8000 at DraftKings |
NBA Points Per Game Leader: Jaylen Brown (+6000 via DraftKings)
This is an extremely chalky market — it’s tough for someone to break through who the sportsbooks didn’t already see coming.
That said, if you’re looking for a long-shot play, Jaylen Brown is your guy, especially at +6000.
Everyone at the top of this market is well-known, and we know what their roles and usage will be. Brown, however, brings question marks — and those questions could work in our favor.
The Boston Celtics will be without Jayson Tatum this season due to injury, and they’ve traded away Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis while also losing Al Horford in free agency.
In 2022-2023, Brown averaged a career-high 26.6 points per game as the team’s second option, while Tatum averaged 30.1 as the primary scorer. That was before Porzingis and Holiday joined the team, and now both are gone.
Can Brown average a career-high 30+ points per game this season and potentially lead the NBA in scoring? It’s a tall order, but at +6000, it’s worth considering. His usage will be extremely high, and his minutes could climb as well.
The Celtics won’t be blowing teams out every night, so they can’t dial back Brown’s workload. If they want to make a serious run at the NBA playoffs, Brown will need to carry a much larger burden during the regular season than he has in the past.
NBA Rebounds Per Game Leader: Jalen Duren (+6000 via DraftKings)
At some point in his career, Jalen Duren is going to win a rebounding title — and I feel very confident about that. The Detroit Pistons center will still be just 21 years old when the season tips off, and the best is clearly yet to come.
What makes Duren such an appealing play in this market is his room for growth. Many of the top centers in the league are already playing near their ceiling in terms of minutes per game.
Duren isn’t. Last season, he averaged 10.3 rebounds in just 26.1 minutes per game — and his upside in both categories is massive.
The encouraging sign came during the NBA Playoffs, when J.B. Bickerstaff showed full trust in Duren, playing him 34 minutes per game against the New York Knicks. If that level of usage carries into the regular season, his rebounding numbers could skyrocket.
As Duren continues to develop — gaining experience, strength, and consistency — the path to a rebounding title becomes even clearer. The talent and instincts are already there; it’s simply a matter of playing time.
At +6000, Duren is an excellent long-shot bet to make that leap this season.
NBA Assists Per Game Leader: Josh Giddey (+8000 via DraftKings)
At first glance, this bet might seem like way too long of a shot — but Josh Giddey is much closer to Trae Young in this market than many of the players listed right behind Young on the odds board.
The difference? Giddey’s price is far longer, and the Chicago Bulls forward quietly showed last season that he can compete in this category.
In the first half of last season, Giddey averaged around 28 minutes per game for the Bulls. His role was unclear, and it’s tough to post big assist numbers when you’re not even hitting the 30-minute mark.
But once Zach LaVine was traded to Sacramento, Giddey’s role became far more defined. He started playing 34+ minutes a night and immediately looked more comfortable running Billy Donovan’s offense.
Over the final 15 games of the regular season, Giddey averaged 16.7 potential assists per game — third in the NBA behind only Trae Young and Tyrese Haliburton.
This offseason, the Bulls doubled down on Giddey’s potential, giving him a $100 million extension and making no major additions in free agency or the draft to take the ball out of his hands. He’ll be running the offense from Day 1, and if he keeps his minutes in the mid-30s, it’s not unrealistic for him to average 10+ assists per game for the first time in his career.
Trae Young set a high bar last season, leading the league with 11.6 assists per game. However, with Jalen Johnson healthy and added depth in Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Young’s numbers could dip slightly.
At +8000 compared to Young’s -130, the value play is clear — Giddey offers massive upside at a long price.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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