With voter fatigue now behind him, Nikola Jokic enters the 2025/2026 season poised to reclaim his spot as NBA MVP.
The NBA offseason always gives us plenty to unpack. From Luka Doncic eating avocado toast to Kevin Durant joining the Rockets, we’ve seen moves that could dramatically shake up this season’s NBA futures and awards races.
Here are some of my favorite NBA picks in the futures market heading into the new season.
Want to make sure Covers shows up often in your Google search results and Discover feed?
Simply click here and add Covers as one of your "source preferences".
NBA Awards picks and futures best bets
| Award | Player/Coach | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Most Valuable Player |  Nikola Jokic |
+300 at FanDuel |
| Defensive Player of the Year |  Amen Thompson |
+1600 at FanDuel |
| Rookie of the Year |  Ace Bailey |
+1000 at DraftKings |
| Most Improved Player |  Derrick White |
+6000 at DraftKings |
| Sixth Man of the Year |  Jordan Clarkson |
+4000 at FanDuel |
| Clutch Player of the Year | Kevin Durant |
+1700 at DraftKings |
| Coach of the Year |  Rick Carlisle |
+5000 at DraftKings |
Most Valuable Player: Nikola Jokic (+300 at FanDuel)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander enters the season as the favorite in this market, but I just don't see him winning this award in back-to-back years.
He was absolutely deserving last season, but let’s be honest — part of the reason he won was that voters were looking for reasons not to give it to Nikola Jokic for the fourth time in five years. Now that SGA has his MVP, it feels like the door is open for Jokic to reclaim it.
The main argument against Jokic last season was team success — the Thunder finished with a much better record than the Nuggets. That might not be the case this year. Denver made major improvements to its depth this offseason, and swapping Michael Porter Jr. for Cam Johnson in the starting lineup is a clear upgrade.
I’d be surprised if the Thunder and Nuggets don’t finish first and second in the Western Conference standings, and if the gap isn't huge, Jokic should have the statistical edge over SGA.
As for Luka Doncic, he’s certainly a live option in this market, but I’d rather wait to back him until the Lakers are fully his team and LeBron James has officially moved on.
Defensive Player of the Year: Amen Thompson (+1600 at FanDuel)
If Victor Wembanyama gets to the 65-game mark, he’s winning this award. His highlight-reel blocks will be impossible to ignore, and his sheer presence in the paint completely alters shots — even when he doesn’t record a block.
That said, Wemby's already trading at -185 to win DPOY. So rather than stating the obvious, let’s look at another player worth considering if you’re interested in fading Wembanyama.
The DPOY narrative usually takes time to build. Once a player earns a reputation as a defensive disruptor, their name starts circulating in the conversation. Entering his third NBA season, Amen Thompson has already laid the foundation to be that kind of player.
When you turn on the film, Thompson’s defensive impact jumps off the screen — his anticipation, athleticism, and energy make him one of the most disruptive defenders in the league. The analytics back that up, too, as he finished Top 5 in Defensive EPM last season.
While the award is technically an individual honor, it often goes to the best defender on one of the league’s top defensive teams. The Rockets fit that profile, and with Kevin Durant now on the roster, Thompson will have more national exposure and plenty of opportunities to showcase his defensive brilliance.
Rookie of the Year: Ace Bailey (+1000 at DraftKings)
This bet gives me the same feel as the DPOY market with Wemby. If you’re asking who I think wins outright, without factoring in odds, it’s Cooper Flagg, but he's trading at -170 right now. I’m looking for better value — and that value is Ace Bailey. The play is to grab Bailey early, then keep an eye on Flagg’s price later in the season if it drifts to a more reasonable number.
Most rookies in this class won’t have a clear path to high usage or big minutes, since many landed on contending teams. Meanwhile, the Jazz offense should run through Bailey from Day 1. Even if some of his production ends up as empty stats on a losing team, he’s got a legitimate chance to average more points per game than any other rookie.
Flagg will also see meaningful minutes right away, but he’ll be sharing the floor with Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving (eventually), and several other proven veterans in Dallas. His numbers won’t be empty calories, but his situation could cap his counting stats just enough to make Bailey a stronger value play.
Realistically, who else will the Jazz run their offense through: Taylor Hendricks? Walker Kessler? Bailey’s going to have the ball in his hands a ton, and he’s never been shy about letting it fly.
Most Improved Player: Derrick White (+6000 at DraftKings)
Derrick White to win MIP at +6000 is my favorite futures bet in this article. There’s a certain type of player who usually wins this award, and White fits that profile perfectly.
While Dyson Daniels broke that trend last season, this award typically goes to someone who makes the leap from being a solid starter to becoming an All-Star. White has never earned that honor, but playing for the Celtics in the weaker Eastern Conference gives him a much clearer path to an All-Star nod than most players in the West.
White will also take on a much larger role in this offense with Jayson Tatum out for the season and both Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday on new teams. Last year, White averaged a career-high 16.4 points per game — right in that sweet spot where players often take the next step to 20+ points per game and enter this conversation. If he were already putting up 20-point seasons, I wouldn’t like the bet, but a jump from 16.4 to 20+ fits the narrative voters look for
The path for White is straightforward: his usage will have to increase this season in Joe Mazzulla’s offense — there’s no way around it. Payton Pritchard might have a similar opportunity, but with White trading at +6000, he's the player I'm hitting the button on.
Sixth Man of the Year: Jordan Clarkson (+4000 at FanDuel)
Jordan Clarkson is trading at +4000 to win Sixth Man of the Year, while his price is much shorter at other sportsbooks. This kind of discrepancy should immediately catch your attention, even without digging into the stats.
Let’s keep it simple: there’s one thing Jordan Clarkson does in the NBA — he scores points off the bench. He’s a textbook sixth man for the Knicks, and that consistency is what makes this market interesting. Some players start the season as bench scorers only to see their roles shift — Clarkson is not one of them. He’s a microwave scorer through and through.
What makes this season different is that Clarkson is now with the Knicks instead of the Jazz. He’ll be playing in meaningful games on national TV, and awards voters often favor players in big media markets.
The New York spotlight will certainly help his narrative, but the system matters too. Mike Brown’s fast, up-tempo offense perfectly suits Clarkson’s playing style. If Tom Thibodeau were still coaching, I wouldn’t consider him for this award, but look at how Brown maximized Malik Monk’s scoring in Sacramento. Clarkson is poised to thrive in a similar way.
Clutch Player of the Year: Kevin Durant (+1700 at DraftKings)
This award market might have the clearest parameters of any NBA voting award: lead the league in clutch points, and you’ll have a great shot to win.
A clutch point is any basket scored in the final five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime when the game is within five points. With that in mind, I’m focusing on someone from the Western Conference, where games are generally more competitive and provide more opportunities for clutch scoring.
At +1700, I’m backing Kevin Durant. This is exactly why the Rockets acquired him — to provide veteran leadership and scoring in late-game situations. He'll be surrounded by a lot of youth this season, including Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., and Reed Sheppard. In clutch moments, the Rockets will turn to KD.
Durant scored 100 clutch points last season for the Suns, and that was while sharing the court with Devin Booker, where he wasn’t the clear No. 1 option. Alperen Sengun will take some looks for Houston, but Durant is clearly the clutch scorer on this roster and the best bet to rack up the points when it matters most.
Coach of the Year: Rick Carlisle (+5000 at DraftKings)
After the Pacers’ run to the NBA Finals last season, many agreed on one thing: Rick Carlisle and his staff might be the best of the best in the NBA. Could that NBA Finals push influence voters this season and help Carlisle in this market? I absolutely think it could — there’s a strong desire among voters to reward him.
The Pacers enter this season with much lower expectations. Tyrese Haliburton’s Achilles tear will sideline him for the year, and Myles Turner has left for Milwaukee. At first glance, that might make you hesitant to bet on Carlisle, but I actually see it as setting up a powerful narrative.
What if the Pacers make the Eastern Conference playoffs without Haliburton? That would be credited to another masterful coaching job by Carlisle — and it’s far from impossible given how weak the Eastern Conference looks this year.
Winning this award usually requires exceeding expectations, and Indiana's win total is set at 36.5. Few teams around the league seem capable of surpassing their win totals by 10 games if everything clicks, but I wouldn’t rule it out for the Pacers.
With Carlisle’s guidance, players like Andrew Nembhard and Bennedict Mathurin could take big steps forward, and the team could easily outperform projections.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
