March usually belongs to the college kids and their “madness,” but if you’ve ever tried tackling NBA player props in the waning days of the schedule, you know a thing or two about going mad.
With so many mixed motivations, along with injuries and changing rotations, the home stretch of the NBA season is loaded with pitfalls for prop bettors.
I search for simplicity in these complicated times and close out the month with my best NBA picks for Tuesday, March 31.
Best NBA player props today
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Paolo Banchero |
Over 23.5 points | +100 |
 Karl-Anthony Towns |
Over 17.5 points | -105 |
 Scottie Barnes |
Under 7.5 assists | -140 |
Prop #1: Paolo Banchero Over 23.5 points
The Orlando Magic hit rock bottom in an embarrassing loss to the Toronto Raptors this past weekend.
But hey, you can only go up from there, right?
That’s true for Paolo Banchero, who finished 3-for-14 from the floor and scored just nine points in Toronto. His putrid performance kept Orlando on a 1-7 SU slide, pushing it back into the Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament.
I like a bounce-back spot for a desperate Banchero, with the team returning home to face the Phoenix Suns. Before that blip north of the border, he was on a tear, posting 30, 36, and 39 points in his previous three games while averaging more than 25 points this month.
Sunday’s shooting slump has knocked Banchero's points prop down a few pegs. His scoring total was as high as 25.5 O/U during that hot streak, and tonight’s projections sit between 23 and 25 points, with most books leaning above 24.
- Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FanDuel Sports Network Florida, KPHE
Prop #2: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 17.5 points
The New York Knicks continue to take three steps forward and two steps back, following a seven-game winning streak with back-to-back losses.
That stumble puts New York off the pace of the Celtics and Pistons atop the Eastern Conference standings and has fingers pointing at standout Karl-Anthony Towns, following an offensive power outage.
Towns has shot the ball just 17 total times in those losses, hitting 10 of those attempts and finishing with outputs of 13 and 15 points. NBA analysts are calling for KAT to play a bigger role and demand touches in the Knicks’ offense, especially with the playoffs closing in.
His point totals are shrinking like they jumped in a cold swimming pool, down from 20.5 to 17.5 O/U. That presents a buyback spot at Houston tonight.
Towns already torched the Houston Rockets for 25 points on 10-of-15 shooting back in February, and his player projections all sit well above this 17.5-point mark, ranging from 19.4 to as high as 23.4.
Before going MIA the last two games, KAT has scored 21 or more points in seven of eight games.
- Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBC/Peacock, MSG
Prop #3: Scottie Barnes Under 7.5 assists
Scottie Barnes is doing his best John Stockton impersonation. The Toronto Raptors' small forward has stepped up as a primary ball handler, with the lineup missing key cogs in Immanuel Quickley and Brandon Ingram.
He’s dished out 10, 12, 12, and 15 dimes over his last four outings, generating 16.8 potential assists per game in that span.
Helping those helpers has been a slate of foes immune to playmaking, facing the likes of Utah, the L.A. Clippers, and New Orleans — all of which sit in the bottom half in opponent assist rate. Toronto has also shot a blistering 53% from the field in those outings.
Barnes, who was averaging 5.4 assists on 9.4 potential dimes before this stretch, will see his passing prowess come back to earth tonight. The Raptors visit the Detroit Pistons and their top-tier defense.
The Pistons’ drum-tight No. 2 defensive rating doesn’t let opponents pass gas, let alone the basketball. Detroit boasts the fifth-lowest defensive assist rate and the fewest assists allowed (23.4), tightening that belt to 22.5 assists allowed over the last dozen games.
Ingram could also return to action tonight after sitting out two of those previous four games. That will take the ball out of Barnes' hands more often.
Projections remain grounded while the prop market isn’t. Barnes' assist total is up to 7.5 O/U, but models barely breach six dimes, sitting as short as 5.3 assists. The Under is a juicy play, but worth it considering the contrast in forecasts and foe.
- Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FanDuel Sports Detroit Extra, Rogers Sportsnet Toronto, WMYD
These props are available now at bet365, one of our best betting sites.
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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