The NBA really outdid itself here with the return from the All-Star break, as we have a massive slate of games on back-to-back nights, and we've searched through the NBA odds to find the best player prop bets for Friday's games.
It'll be hard to top the Luka Doncic and Devin Booker showdown from Thursday night; that was appointment television. But the Milwaukee Bucks taking on the Minnesota Timberwolves will also have me glued to my television on Friday night.
Maybe Doc Rivers can use some of that foresight and come up with a game plan to slow down Anthony Edwards and company?
Find out which NBA player props I'm backing from that matchup, along with my other free NBA picks for Friday, February 23.
Best NBA player props today
- Jonathan Kuminga Over 16.5 points (-115 at Caesars)
- Karl-Anthony Towns Over 2.5 assists (-120 at BetMGM)
- James Harden Over 7.5 assists (-127 at Caesars)
Picks made on February 23 at 6:00 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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NBA player props for February 23
Prop bet #1: King Kuminga
Right before the NBA All-Star break, Jonathan Kuminga was on fire, and we were all eager to play the Over on his points prop when it was trading at 18.5 points. In the one game against the Philadelphia 76ers, the market steamed it up to 21.5 points. It's amazing how fast perception of a player can change.
Mix in four straight Unders, and all of a sudden, not only are bettors not backing the 18.5, but the sportsbooks have had to drop the total to 16.5 points. I personally still think very highly of Kuminga, even with the four straight Unders, and if we're going to drop the total to 16.5 because of some recent box scores, I'm betting the Over on his points prop.
The Golden State Warriors have one of the older rosters in the NBA, and the Warriors will be on the back end of a back-to-back on Friday fresh out of the All-Star break after defeating the Los Angeles Lakers on Thursday. This is a spot where the Warriors will have to be careful with the minutes of their veterans, but not Kuminga; the 21-year-old should see plenty of playing time.
Not only do I think we could see the Warriors lean more heavily on Kuminga because of the spot in the schedule, but the matchup against the Hornets also plays right into his game. The high-flying Kuminga should thrive against the Hornets' defense, as his primary defenders will be either Miles Bridges or Brandon Miller, which is the weak point of the Hornets' defense.
Kuminga is projected to score 18.4 points on Friday against the Hornets, which allows us to price the Over 16.5 points at -142, but it is available at Caesars at -115. Based on this projection, Jonathan Kuminga odds are showing a positive expected value of 10%.
Jonathan Kuminga prop: Over 16.5 points (-115 at Caesars)
Prop bet #2: Towns & country
Every so often, when you're looking at the board, you come across a number that you know is an immediate bet, and that's exactly what we have with these Karl-Anthony Towns odds. Towns' assists prop is one we have bet plenty of times this season, so a 2.5 (-120) I already know is a number that requires my attention, but with the Minnesota Timberwolves facing the Milwaukee Bucks, yeah, sign me up.
If you've been following my NBA player props this season, you'd know that we've consistently attacked the assists props for frontcourt players against the Bucks when we have the right player and price point to do so. Towns and a 2.5 (-120) fit both of those molds on Friday.
There are two things I like about this for Towns against the Bucks specifically. For starters, he is a three-point threat, so Giannis Antetokounmpo has to step out and guard him on the perimeter. If this is the case, it will open up driving lanes and cutters for the Timberwolves that Towns should be able to find on the bounce. Antetokounmpo is also long and very athletic, so it could force Towns into making an extra pass to the corner on some of those 3-point attempts as well.
If the Bucks opt to use Jae Crowder on Towns so they can keep Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez near the rim, Towns will be able to put the floor and get to the rim on Crowder. Once he is there, he will be met by Lopez and Antetokounmpo and will have Rudy Gobert in the dunker's spot for potential assists or a shooter in the corner.
Towns is projected to drop 3.3 dimes on Friday against the Bucks, which allows us to price the Over 2.5 assists at -172, but it is available at BetMGM at -120.
Karl-Anthony Towns prop: Over 2.5 assists (-120 at BetMGM) 50% boost available
Prop bet #3: Harden helpers
The Los Angeles Clippers began the second half of the season with a blowout loss against the Oklahoma City Thunder, in a game where we saw James Harden only have two assists. Perfect, because it dropped the total on Harden on the second night of a back-to-back from 8.5 to 7.5 and opened the door to a probability gap that we can exploit.
This bet on Harden has similar vibes as the one we placed on Kuminga. The Clippers are on the back end of a back-to-back fresh out of the All-Star break, and I'm sure there are some load management concerns with their star players, Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. Remember, Leonard did miss some games heading into the All-Star break with an adductor injury.
At 7.5 (-127), I like this bet on Harden either way, but I do think there's a chance we catch some injury report shenanigans from the Clippers throughout the day, which adds an additional boost to this wager. If it's Harden sitting out, no big deal, the bet runs void, but I have a feeling we could see Leonard miss this game.
The Clippers are also taking on the Memphis Grizzlies on Friday, and I just attacked an assists prop against the Grizzlies right before the NBA All-Star break. I watched Damian Lillard convert 8 potential assists into 7 actual assists and hit the Over against the Grizzlies' defense. Harden should have way more than 8 potential assists, and the ease at which Lillard converted his against the Grizzlies is very promising.
Harden is projected to have 8.8 assists against the Grizzlies on Friday, which means we can price the Over 7.5 assists at -176, but James Harden odds are available at Caesars at -127.
James Harden prop: Over 7.5 assists (-127 at Caesars)
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