Best NBA Player Props Today: Kings' Ransom

Prop bet #1: Dominant Sabonis

Both the Sacramento Kings and the New Orleans Pelicans are looking to improve their position in the Western Conference standings. The Pelicans are trying to fend off the Phoenix Suns and avoid the Play-In Tournament, while the Kings are fighting to avoid having to play in the 9 vs. 10 game, and still have an outside chance of getting the sixth seed.

What this means for Domantas Sabonis is his minutes should be very secure, and they could even be higher than the projection. It's one thing to need a win, but it's another to need a win when you're facing the team you're chasing in the standings.

When it comes to Sabonis' assists prop, he has a favorable matchup going head-to-head against Jonas Valanciunas and the Pelicans. Valanciunas doesn't have the foot speed to guard Sabonis when the Kings use him as a mini-hub at the elbow or the nail, so the center has to back off. With Valanciunas giving Sabonis space, it creates a scenario almost like when a quarterback has 10 seconds in the pocket. Sabonis is an excellent passer who sees the floor extremely well, and without this pressure, he has time to find open teammates.

With Herb Jones guarding De'Aaron Fox, it also makes sense for the Kings to run the offense through Sabonis more than they typically would. Sabonis has the bigger advantage, so increase his usage and get him a ton of touches.

Sabonis is projected to have 8.8 assists, which allows us to price the Over 7.5 assists at -180, but it is available at Caesars at -131. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 13%.

Domantas Sabonis prop: Over 7.5 assists (-131 at Caesars)

Prop bet #2: Ayton's string of Overs ends

Deandre Ayton has gone Over his points total in five of his last six games since returning from an injury, but with the total on the rise, I'm hitting the Under. When this streak started six games ago, Ayton was trading at 18.5 points, and now we are all the way up to 24.5.

The Portland Trail Blazers' goal is to increase Ayton's and Scoot Henderson's confidence down the stretch to allow them to build on their chemistry. These two are running a ton of pick-and-roll sets, and Henderson is consistently finding Ayton at the high post for mid-range jump shots.

That being said, do you really think Draymond Green will allow Ayton to get this shot off as easily as some of his other defenders? Green has the foot speed to get up in Ayton's grill because he doesn't have to worry about his ability to blow past him on the dribble.

The Trail Blazers are also on the front end of a back-to-back as 14.5-point underdogs to a Golden State Warriors team that needs this win, and does playing Ayton for extended minutes against Green feel like much of a confidence booster?

I like Ayton to go Under this number at 24.5 even if he plays his projected minutes, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if Chauncey Billups pulls the plug on Ayton's floor time to play him more on Friday against the Houston Rockets, where the matchup is more advantageous.

Ayton is projected to score 22 points, which wouldn't have us even thinking about an Under bet if Ayton's total was still 18.5, but at the new number of 24.5 points, it's a different story. Based on this projection, we can price the Under 24.5 points at -191.

Deandre Ayton prop: Under 24.5 points (-122 at BetRivers)

Prop bet #3: McCollum doesn't answer

CJ McCollum has been on an absolute heater, going Over his scoring total in nine of his last 10 games, averaging 26.7 points. Naturally, I'm playing the Under tonight.

McCollum is scoring a bunch and flying Over the total, but it's not like this number has remained stagnant. If we rewind to when this stretch started, his points total was trading at 18.5 and now we are six points higher. McCollum could score 22 points against the Kings, which would be a sweat-free winner on his old number, but at 24.5, that's an easy Under.

This current version of the Kings' roster also plays a role in why I believe McCollum will go Under the total of 24.5 points. When McCollum played the Kings in the past, his matchups would include Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk. Excellent offensive players for the Kings whose faulty defense McCollum could exploit.

With Monk and Huerter injured, Keon Ellis is now seeing elevated minutes in the starting lineup. This switch hurts McCollum's points prop because Ellis is a plus defender and the Kings' best option on the perimeter. These injuries have also led to Davion Mitchell seeing more minutes off the bench, who is also a better defender than Monk and Huerter.

McCollum is projected to score 21.8 points on Thursday against the Kings, which allows us to price the under 24.5 points at -196, but it is available at FanDuel at -115.

CJ McCollum prop: Under 24.5 points (-115 at FanDuel)