The Sacramento Kings will host the New Orleans Pelicans at Golden 1 Center on Monday, with a spot in the semifinals of the NBA In-Season Tournament in Las Vegas on the line.
The Kings advanced to the quarterfinals with a perfect 4-0 record in Group C in the Western Conference, while the Pelicans went 3-1 to win West Group B and eliminate the defending champion Denver Nuggets from the tournament.
The Kings and Pelicans are very familiar with each other, as they just played two games back-to-back in New Orleans on November 20 and 22, both of which were won by the Pelicans.
The Kings will need to find a way to slow down Zion Williamson, considering it was a significant problem for them in the previous two matchups. Find out if they can in our free NBA prop picks for Pelicans vs. Kings below.
Best Pelicans vs Kings player props today
- Ingram Over 21.5 points (-110 at BetMGM)
- Fox Under 27.5 points (-114 at BetRivers)
- Sabonis Over 17.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)
Picks made on December 4 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Pelicans vs Kings player props for December 4
Prop bet #1: Bait and switch
It isn’t a secret that the Sacramento Kings lack defense on the interior and rim protection; they tried to address it in some capacity this offseason by signing JaVale McGee. The problem for the Kings is that the New Orleans Pelicans possess a roster that can completely exploit this mismatch.
Zion Williamson is a matchup nightmare for the Kings, and their defense will be looking to build a wall wherever they can to help slow him down. While Williamson is the biggest mismatch for the Kings on the defensive end, this makes me more inclined to attack Ingram’s points prop against the Kings, especially with the current NBA odds.
Sacramento's frontcourt will have to devote so much attention and help defense to slowing down Williamson that it will leave Ingram with a ton of space to operate.
Plus, don’t forget the Kings also don’t have anyone who can challenge Ingram at the rim. If Ingram can easily put pressure on the rim and has a ton of space to operate in the mid-range thanks to Williamson, I really like the Over on his points prop.
Ingram is projected to score 23.2 points on Monday against the Kings, which allows us to price the Over 21.5 points at -127, but it's available at BetMGM at -110. You'll want to jump at this price quickly because we're seeing quite a bit of steam on the Over for Ingram’s prop.
Brandon Ingram prop: Over 21.5 points (-110 at BetMGM)
Prop bet #2: Fox in the hole
De'Aaron Fox is an absolute stud who is having an All-NBA type of season, and nobody's going ever going to enjoy playing an Under on his points prop, but I do think taking this side on Monday against the Pelicans is the correct decision.
The Pelicans possess multiple defenders who can disrupt Fox’s game and make his night incredibly difficult. Completely shut Fox down? No, but keeping him Under 27.5 points, for sure.
Herb Jones will get the first crack at guarding Fox, but it doesn’t stop there; the Pelicans can also utilize Dyson Daniels and Jose Alvarado on Fox. In their previous matchup, Daniels and Alvarado were picking Fox up full court and making him work for 94 feet.
We should expect much of the same on Monday from the Pelicans, who can afford to have Alvarado and Daniels expend so much energy on the defensive end because of their limited roles on offense.
Fox is projected to score 26.7 points against the Pelicans on Monday, which allows us to price the Under 27.5 points at -125. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 4%.
De'Aaron Fox prop: Under 27.5 points (-114 at BetRivers)
Prop bet #3: Don't overlook Domantas
The same reason I like Fox to go Under his points total is the same reason I favor Domantas Sabonis to go Over his. The advantage for the Kings' offense against the Pelicans' defense will be found in using Sabonis at the nail as a hub and utilizing the corner 3-point shooters in Harrison Barnes and Keegan Murray.
For Sabonis, this matchup is personal, as he's going head-to-head with his fellow Lithuanian forward, Jonas Valanciunas. These two work out together in the summer and are expected to represent Lithuania at the Olympics in Paris this summer.
The Kings need Sabonis to be aggressive against this Pelicans' defense; it was a point of emphasis for the Kings the last time these two played on November 22. Sabonis had a very efficient game, scoring 23 points on 8 of 11 shooting, and the Kings should be looking to exploit that matchup even more on Monday.
Sabonis is projected to score 18.9 points on Monday against the Pelicans, which allows us to price the Over 17.5 points at -125, but it's available at DraftKings for -110.
Domantas Sabonis prop: Over 17.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)
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