The Indiana Pacers, fresh off a convincing win over the Memphis Grizzlies, head to Milwaukee for their second game in as many nights with first place in the Central Division on the line.
While Milwaukee is a tougher test than the Grizzlies, with NBA odds setting the home Bucks as eight-point favorites, the Pacers have played well in these situations this year, entering Wednesday's game 3-0 on the second half of a back-to-back set.
We'll get two of the better offenses in the Eastern Conference going at it in what should be a high-scoring affair, as the total is sitting at 232.5.
Check out our NBA betting free picks and predictions for Pacers vs. Bucks on February 3, with tip-off set for 7:00 p.m. ET.
Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks Betting Preview
Injuries
Pacers: Caris LeVert G (Out), T.J. Warren F (Out)
Bucks: No key injuries to report
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Betting Trend to Know
The Under is 6-1 in the last seven head-to-head meetings. Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Bucks.
NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonMilwaukee opened as an 8.5-point favorite at FanDuel, fell to -8, rebounded to -9, and as of 4 p.m. ET, the line is back to -8.5. The Pacers are attracting 51 percent of point-spread bets, while the Bucks are getting 55 percent of spread money. The total opened at 232 and now sits at 233.5, with the Over getting 59 percent of bets and 58 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAgainst the Spread (ATS) Pick
As mentioned, the winner of this matchup will sit alone in first place in the Central, and these two foes should battle it out for the top spot in the division all season, as there are no clear threats behind them. It will be a good opportunity for each team to size one another up, as they've yet to play this year and figure to be among the top squads in the Eastern Conference by season's end.
Neither team has yet to really find its groove, with the Pacers battling injuries and roster maneuvering and the Bucks taking a major step back defensively—going from the No. 1-ranked team in defensive rating last season to 15th through 20 games. Yet, in a division that features the lowly Chicago Bulls, Detroit Pistons, and a Cleveland Cavaliers team that’s still emerging, they are clearly the cream of the crop.
Milwaukee is a tough team for the Pacers to run into on the second night of a back-to-back, but the Bucks have struggled ATS this season, going 9-11, including 3-6 in their last nine contests. Indiana, which got a career-high-tying 32 points from Domantas Sabonis to snap Memphis' seven-game winning streak last night, is a slightly-better 11-10 ATS on the season.
The Bucks are elite at home (8-2), losing only to the Utah Jazz and Los Angeles Lakers – the top two teams in the NBA – and will be a stiff challenge for the Pacers in their quest to improve to 4-0 in back-to-backs, but that doesn't mean Indiana can't hang with them.
This line opened up at Milwaukee -8.5 before dropping to -8, but the points still feel a little high here.
PREDICTION: Pacers +8 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
We should get a lot of scoring in this one, putting the 232.5 total (the highest among the 10 games tonight) well within striking distance. Both teams are coming off 134-point performances and have well-run, efficient offenses while sitting middle of the pack in defensive efficiency.
Milwaukee, which got a breather Tuesday after destroying the Portland Trail Blazers by 28 on Monday, is No. 1 in the NBA in offensive rating and its whopping 120.5 point-per-game average is second in the league. The Bucks are doing that while converting on nearly half their shot attempts, ranking second in the NBA with a 49.1 field goal percentage. They trail only the Brooklyn Nets - who have an unfair superstar trio at their disposal - in those categories.
Led by Giannis Antetokounmpo's 27.3 points per game and Khris Middleton's career-best mark of 21.2, the Bucks are 12-8 O/U this season and have hit the Over in five of their past seven contests. They've been held under 110 points in only three of their 20 games this season, proving they can put up points against anyone.
The Pacers, meanwhile, are no slouch on the offensive end, either. They are right behind the Bucks in a number of key categories, ranking third in field goal percentage, seventh in offensive rating, and eighth in points per game at 114.1. Indiana has gone Over in six of its last nine games and is coming off a season-best 134 points against one of the best defensive teams in the league in Memphis.
Simply put, both these teams can score and we don't expect that to change tonight.
PREDICTION: Over 232.5 (-110)
Player Prop Pick
One of the big areas where the Bucks should exploit the Pacers is on the glass. Milwaukee is one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA, ranking fourth in rebounding rate and second in rebounds per game, led by the reigning MVP's 11 boards per contest.
The Pacers, on the other hand, are 29th in the NBA in rebounds per game, averaging six fewer boards than the Bucks. Indiana fares a little better when looking at the team's rebounding rate, but is still in the bottom third in the league and is up against one of the elite rebounding teams in the Association. Sabonis ranks fifth in the NBA with 12 rebounds per game, but he alone can't make up the difference here.
While Antetokounmpo leads the Bucks in this area, his O/U rebounding prop is a little high at 12.5, so we're looking elsewhere here. Enter Jrue Holiday.
The Bucks' starting point guard is averaging 4.9 boards per game, in line with where he's been the last few seasons, but he has gone over that number in each of his past six games.
Against a weak-rebounding Pacers team, it feels like a good spot for him to make it seven in a row.
PREDICTION: Jrue Holiday Over 4.5 Rebounds (-134)
Pacers vs Bucks Betting Card
- Pacers +8 (-110)
- Over 232.5 (-110)
- Jrue Holiday Over 4.5 Rebounds (-134)
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