It’s a light night on the hardcourt with just four games for basketball fans to bet on, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t plenty of value to be found in the NBA player prop markets.
I’ve dug through the NBA odds to bring you my three favorite for today, which include Derrick White lighting up the Bucks like a Christmas tree, and Amen Thompson putting in work on the glass against the Clippers.
Here are my NBA picks for Thursday, December 11.
Best NBA player props today
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Derrick White |
Over 3.5 threes | -105 |
 Amen Thompson |
Over 6.5 rebounds | -115 |
 Cameron Johnson |
Over 2.5 assists | +100 |
Prop #1: Derrick White Over 3.5 threes
The Milwaukee Bucks without Giannis Antetokounmpo are tough to watch. Also, they’re pretty bad at basketball without the former two-time MVP.
The Bucks have lost 10 of their last 12 games to sit at 10-15 and have become one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA without their star player. Milwaukee ranks 24th in defensive rating during this 12-game slump, and now they’ll have to deal with a Boston Celtics team that is finding its groove.
The Celtics enter this game winners of seven of their last eight, including the last five in a row, and are 8-0 against the spread.
This run has the Celtics now ranked second in the NBA in offensive rating, and they are particularly dangerous from beyond the arc. Boston takes the third-most threes per game, and their 16 makes per game leads the NBA.
The C’s will keep letting it fly against the Bucks' soft perimeter defense that ranks 24th in opponent three-point attempts and 23rd in opponent three-point shooting percentage.
That has me looking at C’s sharpshooter Derrick White. Like the Celtics in general, White got off to a slow start this season, but he’s certainly found his shooting rhythm.
White is shooting 41.2% on 11.3 attempts from deep over his last six games. He’s hit four or more threes five times during that run, including the last four in a row. He makes it five in a row tonight.
- Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSB, FanDuel Sports Network-Wisconsin
Prop #2: Amen Thompson Over 6.5 rebounds
The Los Angeles Clippers are a disaster. They enter tonight’s matchup against the Houston Rockets at 6-18. Only the New Orleans Pelicans and the Washington Wizards have worse records.
If you are 6-18 you are obviously bad at a lot of things. The Clippers rank 25th in defensive rating, and 29th in assist-to-turnover ratio. They also struggle to compete on the glass, ranking 20th in rebounding rate and tonight they’ll go against on of the best rebounding teams in the NBA.
The Rockets lead the NBA in rebounding rate and have four players on the roster hauling down more than six boards per game, and the guy I am highlighting here is Amen Thompson.
The 22-year-old is a big reason why the Rockets are having so much success this season. He comes into this game averaging 17.4 points, 7.0 rebounds and 5.1 assists, and he’s been putting in some extra work on the glass lately.
He is up to 8.5 rebounds over his last 10 games, grabbing seven or more boards eight times over that stretch. His rebounding prop for this one is sitting at 6.5 with very little juice, and that’s too good to pass up.
- Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FanDuel Sports Network-SC, SCHN
Prop #3: Cam Johnson Over 2.5 assists
The Denver Nuggets and their top-rated offense continue to roll this season. The Nuggets are 17-6 and in second place in the Western Conference, yet they still dropped a matchup with the slumping Sacramento Kings recently.
The 6-18 Kings upset the Nuggets 128-123 as 11-point road underdogs back on November 22, but an encore by the Kings seems unlikely, given Denver’s talented, deep offence.
Speaking of that depth, the Nuggets have done this with Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun sidelined for the last little while. But it has shown why getting Cameron Johnson was a good move for this team.
Johnson is averaging 11.1 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 2.3 assists in his first season with Denver, and I like him to get his teammates involved in this one. Johnson has upped those assists to 3.0 over his last five games, dishing out three or more dimes three times over that stretch.
And he gets a great matchup against a Kings team that has really struggled to prevent buckets. Sacramento enters this game with the fifth-worst defensive rating in the NBA and surrenders the sixth most assists per possession.
At even money, backing Johnson to notch at least three assists in this matchup looks like a great bet on Thursday night.
- Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ALT, NBCSCA
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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