Most Mavs vs. Celtics predictions and NBA picks will take until nearly midnight to settle. But why wait? There are plenty of ways to find value earlier than that when looking at the first quarter alone.
If you have an early Friday morning to worry about or are simply stumped by this game’s broader lines, there is value to be found in the first 12 game minutes after this tips on Thursday, June 6.
Mavs vs Celtics first quarter predictions Game 1
Keeping it close
Did you see Luka Doncic in Game 5’s opening frame against the Minnesota Timberwolves? In the first 4:32, he hit his first five buckets on the way to scoring 22 points. He went 9-of-12 shooting in the quarter, including 4-of-6 from deep, adding two assists, two rebounds, and a steal.
That is not the only reason to back the Dallas Mavericks early tonight, but it is the loudest reason.
Dallas has covered the first-quarter spread in 10 of 17 games this postseason, most notably going 5-2 against the spread in the first quarter when an underdog that night. Both losses came at Minnesota, games which the Mavericks eventually won outright. That can serve as an ounce of worry, but the 5-2 ATS mark should outweigh it.
The Boston Celtics have had a full 10 days off, not to mention a relatively easy path to the Finals. This is not another round of lampooning Boston for beating injured foes — it could play only the opponents on the court — but it is acknowledging this uptick in competition could take a minute to readjust to, particularly after that long layoff.
And the Celtics have not played particularly well in first quarters, no matter who they have gone against this postseason. Boston is — and this record may be charitable, giving the Celtics the benefit of the doubt on some varied numbers — 2-6 ATS in the first quarter in its last eight games. The depleted Cavaliers and Pacers repeatedly kept things close through the first frame.
The Mavs should do so tonight, as well.
NBA Finals first quarter prop: Mavericks 1Q +2 (-105 at Caesars)
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No first quarter nerves
The casual take would be that the first quarter of the NBA Finals could be a slog. Nerves may win the moment.
But if they do, that is more likely to show up defensively than offensively. First of all, that is the modern NBA. Second of all, the two Mavericks who are most accustomed to this moment are Kyrie Irving (fourth career NBA Finals) and Doncic (been playing high-level international basketball for a decade now). Irving and Doncic are offensive-minded powers, obviously.
If they are dialed in while other Mavs fray, then Dallas will need to commit to its offense early.
Two of the last three NBA Finals Game 1s went Over their first quarter totals, including Boston’s 2022 appearance, a 32-28 quarter loss to the Warriors in a game with an overall total of 214.5.
Furthermore, eight of Boston’s last 11 first quarters would have cleared this total. Admittedly, three out of four of those were against the Pacers and those games had inflated scores thanks to the Pacers’ general preferred style. But five out of seven were in games with lower totals, ones against the Cavs and the Heat.
The Celtics’ defense does not dial in early, certainly not consistently. Combine that with Dallas’s most-veteran stars and this early total should be cleared quickly.
NBA Finals first quarter prop: Over 55.5 1Q (-105 at DraftKings)
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Brown brings it early
Jaylen Brown won Eastern Conference Finals MVP for a reason. He has shined this entire postseason, averaging 25 points with 6.1 rebounds and hitting 54.1% of his field goals.
The Celtics forward has not wasted any time in putting up those numbers. In 14 postseason games, he has taken the first shot in four of them. That rate alone presents value on betting Brown to score tonight’s first basket at +500.
He has made the first basket in six of them. That rate strengthens this value to a point of making it a must-bet.
The greatest risk to this value may be the opening tip. But Kristaps Porzingis' return to action lessens that risk. In his 61 games this season, Boston won the opening tip 68.8% of the time (42 games).
By comparison, in Daniel Gafford’s 38 games starting for the Mavericks, he won the tip on just 17 of them, 45.5%.
This will be the quickest bet of your Finals, but it could also be your quickest profit of the NBA Finals.
Jaylen Brown prop: First basket scorer (+500 at DraftKings)
