Mavericks vs Pelicans Picks and Predictions: Red-Hot Mavs Roll Into the Break

The Dallas Mavericks continue to roll right along, as they head to the Big Easy to face off against the New Orleans Pelicans on Thursday night. 

The Mavs have been one of the league's hottest teams since the New Year began and look to head into the All-Star break with plenty of momentum. NBA betting lines have Dallas installed as a 2.5-point road favorite for this contest with the Over/Under at 215.

Here are our best free Mavericks vs. Pelicans NBA picks and predictions for tonight, February 17, with tipoff at 8 p.m. ET. 

Mavericks vs Pelicans odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

This line opened at Mavericks -3 with the Over/Under at 215. Early money has come in on New Orleans and the Under, shifting the line to Dallas -2.5 and moving the total to 214.5. When these teams last played against each other on December 3, the Pels won 107-91 as 7-point road underdogs. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Mavericks vs Pelicans predictions

• Prediction: Mavericks -2.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 214.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Pelicans TT Under 105.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 2/17/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Mavericks vs Pelicans game info

• Location: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA
• Date: Thursday, February 17, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: BSNO, BSSW-DAL

Mavericks vs Pelicans betting preview

Key injuries

Mavericks: Tim Hardaway Jr. SG (Out), Trey Burke PG (Questionable), Reggie Bullock SG (Questionable), Marquese Chriss PF (Out), Theo Pinson SG (Questionable), Frank Ntilikina PG (Questionable).
Pelicans: Zion Williamson PF (Out), Larry Nance Jr. PF (Out), Kira Lewis PG (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 16-6 in the Mavericks' last 22 games as a favorite. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Pelicans.

Mavericks vs Pelicans picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

The Pelicans pulled off a massive 30-point victory against the Raptors on Monday night and then promptly fell back into mediocrity by losing 121-109 versus Memphis the next day.

They are now 1-3 SU and ATS since acquiring C.J. McCollum to bolster their offense at the trade deadline. While McCollum has sizzled with his new club, the Pelicans have still struggled on defense and their recent hot shooting will be put to the test by a stingy Dallas stop-unit.  

The Mavericks are fresh off a 107-99 road victory against the Heat and have gone 18-6 SU (15-9 ATS) since December 31. Since that date, the Mavs have the league's second-best defensive rating and while their scoring has been middle-of-the-pack, Luka Doncic has been carrying the offense with 34.4 points, 9.8 assists, and 10.3 rebounds per game in his last eight contests. 

The Pelicans starting lineup doesn't actually look that bad and if they ever get Zion Williamson back, they might even be a playoff team. However, Williamson isn't coming back any time soon, with recent reports stating that he might need a second surgery on his foot, and the Pels are still a Bottom-10 team in both offensive rating and defensive rating.

With how well the Mavs have been playing lately, being able to grab them at -2.5 is tough to turn down. 

Prediction: Mavericks -2.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

The total is currently at a low 214.5 but both teams have been very reliable as an Under bet. The Pels are 8-2-1 to the Under in their last 11 games while the Mavs have gone a league-best 37-19 to the Under this season. 

Although McCollum and Brandon Ingram can get buckets, Devonte' Graham is horribly inefficient as a lead guard and the Pels scoring punch off the bench is non-existent. They won't find it easy to put up points against a Mavs team that is allowing just 99.8 ppg in its last 25 games and plays at the slowest pace in the league. 

That sluggish pace and the Mavs' lack of scoring depth behind Doncic has resulted in them sitting just 24th in the league in scoring with 106.3 ppg. Take the Under. 

Prediction: Under 214.5 (-110)

Best bet

The Mavericks' defensive play this season has been nothing short of remarkable, when you consider that it's essentially the same roster that ranked in the Bottom 10 of the league in defensive rating last year. New head coach Jason Kidd and his emphasis on that end of the floor has played a big role in that turnaround as has Dorian Finney-Smith evolving into one of the league's best defenders. 

The Mavs are coming off a contest where they held a strong Heat squad to 99 points on 42 percent shooting, and they have now allowed fewer than 100 points in five of their last six games.

In their "worst" defensive showing during that span, they still limited the Clippers to 105 points. With the Pels team total set at 105.5 tonight, we're taking the Under. 

Pick: Pelicans team total Under 105.5 (-110)

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