LeBron James and his loveable band of misfits built a shocking 3-0 series lead over the Houston Rockets, much like the script from some 90’s Disney movie.
The past two games, however, have been more like a horror flick for the Los Angeles Lakers.
Houston has rallied to force a Game 6 showdown at home, and even with Austin Reaves returning for L.A., the Rockets are favorites to send this series to seven games.
I dive into the player markets for my best Lakers vs. Rockets props and NBA picks for Friday, May 1.
Best Lakers vs Rockets props for Game 6
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Luke Kennard |
Over 1.5 threes | +140 |
 Alperen Sengun |
Over 6.5 assists | +110 |
| Tari Eason |
Under 7.5 rebounds | -125 |
Game 6 Prop #1: Luke Kennard Over 1.5 threes
Luke Kennard made the biggest splash among the Los Angeles Lakers’ role players early in this series. With Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves out, Kennard stepped into the starting lineup and knocked down eight of his first 11 attempts from deep.
The past three games haven’t been as kind to Kennard, who is a collective 1-for-11 from beyond the arc since Game 3.
After such a hot start to the playoffs, the Lakers haven’t shot the ball well as a team, but I expect this up-and-down success to level out in Game 6.
Kennard still played 30+ minutes with Reaves back in the rotation in Game 5, and it’s not like the Houston Rockets are clamping down on the perimeter. Over the past three games, 10 of Kennard's 11 3PAs have been graded as “open” to “wide open”, with the closest defender at least four feet away.
Projections for Game 6 range from 1.6 to 2.1 makes from beyond the arc from Kennard, with a healthy plus-money return on the Over.
Game 6 Prop #2: Alperen Sengun Over 6.5 assists
Alperen Sengun dished out eight assists in the Rockets’ win on Wednesday, and the Turkish center has been their most active passer in the series. Sengun has registered 61 potential assists through five games, with Houston converting those setups into 27 actual dimes.
His teammates made good on eight of 16 potential assists in Game 5, which is impressive considering how poorly the Rockets shot the ball in that slog of a win.
The return home tonight will give Houston a bump in field goal success (48.1% at home vs. 46.9% on the road), which means more of those potential plays will translate into buckets. Sengun’s projections all sit north of 6.5 dimes, with a ceiling of seven assists in Game 6.
You can find expensive Over 5.5 or plus-money Over 6.5 totals across the market. Shop around for what you’re comfortable with.
Game 6 Prop #3: Tari Eason Under 7.5 rebounds
Tari Eason has been excellent defensively during the Rockets’ turnaround. He’s drawn the daunting assignment of guarding LeBron while also cleaning the glass, averaging seven rebounds in the series.
Eason hit the boards hard in the opening two games, pulling down 18 total rebounds on 23 rebounding chances — a sharp surge from his season average. Over the past three games, he’s collected 17 total rebounds on 28 chances, including five boards on just nine rebounding chances in Game 5.
With Eason primarily guarding James, his floor positioning shifts with Reaves back in the L.A. rotation. LeBron takes over as the primary ball handler, playing more on the perimeter while Reaves looks to attack the Houston interior.
As a result, Eason is pulled out to the perimeter, which helps explain why his rebounding opportunities dipped with Reaves back in Game 5 — and why his projections fall short of tonight’s rebounding total. The 6-foot-6 forward is forecasted for around seven boards, with most models sitting south of 7.0.
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