Two slightly confounding teams face off Tuesday night for NBA betting, as the reigning Eastern Conference champion Miami Heat host the New York Knicks.
Despite an expected slow start following their blink-and-you-missed-it offseason, Miami has looked rudderless in struggling to a 9-14 record. Meanwhile, New York is off to an 11-14 start under Tom Thibodeau, and look to have a competent - and competitive - basketball team for the first time in ages.
As Miami looks to trend in the other direction while New York looks to prove it's for real, let's check out our Knicks vs. Heat picks and predictions for Tuesday, February 9, with tipoff at 7:30 p.m. ET.
New York Knicks at Miami Heat Betting Preview
Injuries
Knicks: Nerlens Noel C (Questionable), Derrick Rose PG (Unavailable)
Heat: Goran Dragic PG (Out), Gabe Vincent PG (Probable)
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
Over is 21-8 in Heat's last 29 home games vs. teams with losing records. Find more NBA betting trends for Knicks vs. Heat.
NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonFanDuel pegged Miami a 7-point favorite to open Monday night, dropped to -5.5 this morning and quickly rebounded to -6, where the number remains at 4 p.m. ET. New York is landing 59 percent of bets and 57 percent of money on the spread. The total initially ticked down from 208 to 207.5, but it's now at 209, with 84 percent of tickets and money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this game
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
The Heat have been very up-and-down to start this season, for a variety of reasons.
There can be inherent pressure in living up to their inspired bubble run, especially on the heels of (cliche alert) "the shortest offseason in pro sports history!" It also didn't help that Jimmy Butler was sidelined by COVID-19 protocols for three weeks, pilfering their best player. To boot, Miami missed having Jae Crowder's unsustainably-hot hand around, and hasn't really seen Tyler Herro's next step as of yet.
And while adding Butler back into the mix has yet to fully move the needle, there's no question he makes them a far more dynamic team on both sides of the ball. Butler can be both a go-to scorer on cue and a de-facto point forward, helping to negate Goran Dragic's absence.
Butler can also keep RJ Barrett, the Knicks' struggling sophomore, in a straitjacket (three points on 1-6 shooting on Sunday), and is another strong help body to wall off the Julius Randle freight train.
Miami's going to snap out of it eventually. Last season was no fluke, and as Butler continues to get re-acquainted, the Heat should only improve. The extra point the spread's given us since it opened only helps entice us to side with the Heat here.
PREDICTION: Miami -5.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
This just feels like a trap. Every stat and trend points to an Under here. The Knicks are one of the best Under bets in the league at 8-17 O/U. They play at the league's slowest pace, allow the fewest points per game, and score the fewest points per game themselves.
But this total is just so low at 207.5, a total that the Heat and Knicks have hit Under on only once in their past five games, respectively.
We're certainly not expecting a shootout, but Butler's presence makes Miami far more competent offensively, and it should see enough better looks to push this Over such a measly total.
PREDICTION: Over 207.5 (-110)
Player Prop Pick
As stressed repeatedly above, Butler's return was a welcome addition for a Heat squad that's spent the season battling several minor identity crises.
Jimmy Buckets has been averaging 21/8.4/8 since coming back from COVID protocols and is finding a way to leave his mark on every game, in one way or another.
On Sunday, he was an assist shy of a triple-double and looks like he's becoming a nightly threat to flirt with one. This makes his 31.5 total pts+rebs+asts market attractive, even at fairly heavy juice.
PREDICTION: Jimmy Butler Over 31.5 pts+rebs+asts (-140)
Knicks vs Heat Betting Card
- Miami -5.5 (-110)
- Over 207.5 (-110)
- Jimmy Butler Over 31.5 pts+rebs+asts (-140)
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