The New York Knicks scuffled to the season’s end while Jalen Brunson recovered from an ankle sprain, going just 11-9 outright after he first suffered that injury in early March. Much of New York’s offensive profile can be ignored from that stretch, falling to No. 22 in offensive rating after the All-Star Break, but its defensive tendencies still hold predictive value heading into these conference semifinals against the Boston Celtics.
My Knicks vs. Celtics props and NBA picks trust New York to limit looks from deep while Boston struggles in that exact regard. Tip comes at 7 ET on Monday, May 5.
Best Knicks vs Celtics props
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Towns o1.5 threes (-145) -
Tatum u3.5 threes (-150) - Hart o3.5 attempted threes (+135)
Knicks vs Celtics player props for May 5
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 1.5 threes (-145 at bet365)
Focus on Karl-Anthony Towns in this series. This is the matchup that prompted the New York Knicks to want the best shooting big man in history.
A few years ago, the Timberwolves traded for Rudy Gobert specifically to build a team that could beat the Nuggets, which we then saw them do last postseason. The Knicks tracking down Towns made clear a similar intention. New York knows it needs a roster designed to beat the Boston Celtics, and Towns’s shooting is a crucial part of that.
Boston gives up looks from deep, ranking No. 22 in the NBA in opposing 3-point rate since the All-Star Break, foes taking 43.4% of their shots from beyond the arc. The only valid criticism of Towns’s shooting is that he does not shoot enough. When hitting 42.0% of your 3s, as he did this season, you should take more than 4.7 of them per game.
This is the series to lean into that. Set up Towns from deep. Draw out Kristaps Porzingis. Spread out Boston’s defense to give Jalen Brunson chances to drive.
And if Towns is going to shoot, particularly against a team susceptible to looks from deep, then he is going to make some of them. That is usually the Celtics’ strength, preventing those looks from being good looks. But at Towns’s height, any look is a good look. That is why he made 42.0% of them this season.
Jayson Tatum Under 3.5 threes (-150 at bet365)
Losing Brunson for most of March and some of April impacted New York’s offense. He is the straw that stirs that drink. However, he does not dictate much of the Knicks’ defense. Look to Josh Hart or OG Anunoby for that emphasis.
New York held opponents to just 35.1% from deep since the All-Star Break, No. 8 in the NBA, while those foes heaved from beyond the arc on only 41.1% of their shots, also No. 8 in the NBA.
Living on the perimeter is Boston’s trademark. It is why it took them so long to find a title; when the shots do not fall, the Celtics fail.
They will still get shots off. Again, Boston considers shooting 3s as vital as breathing oxygen. But they will not get as many off, and they will not get as many good looks.
For all his qualities, Jayson Tatum has never become a prolific shooter. He hit only 34.3% of his attempts this season, actually a negative on most possessions, despite taking 10.1 per game.
While Tatum did clear this prop twice against Orlando, the looks will be tougher to come by against New York.
Josh Hart Over 3.5 three-point attempts (+135 at bet365)
New York does not love it when Josh Hart shoots. His strengths are defense and rebounding, with a healthy amount of playmaking, averaging 9.6 rebounds and 5.9 assists this season while making just 33.3% of his 3.3 attempts from deep per game.
But the Celtics give up shots, and Boston will almost assuredly give up those shots as wide open for Hart. That will be a reasonable defensive strategy, even if he hits a few 3-pointers tonight.
Hart is simply not a shooter.
But he is going to need to be for the Knicks to expose the Celtics’ defense.
Recognizing that likelihood ahead of time provides value on this plus-money prop.
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