Kings vs Jazz Picks and Predictions: Domantas Dominates Down Low

Domantas Sabonis has scored 23+ points in three of his last four games, including a 30-point masterclass against Washington over the weekend. With his point total set at a conservative 20.5, our NBA betting picks are expecting more of the same tonight.

Last Updated: Mar 20, 2023 3:30 PM ET Read Time: 4 min

The Sacramento Kings continue their improbable NBA season in Salt Lake City, attempting to go a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS as they close out their current road trip against the Utah Jazz tonight.

Sacramento sits second in the West after winning the first three stops on this four-game swing. The Kings are the hottest team in the West with just two losses since the All-Star break and a 10-3 ATS record in that span.

Utah has shown life after a slow start to March with three wins in its last four, including an upset over Boston last time out. That turnaround has the Jazz back in the mix for a spot in the play-in tournament, sitting 11th heading into Monday, but they'll be without All-Star Lauri Markkanen.

I dissect the point spread and Over/Under total for this Western Conference clash and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Kings at Jazz.

Kings vs Jazz best odds

Kings vs Jazz picks and predictions

A lot of basketball heads have been waiting for the other shoe to drop for the Sacramento Kings, but those doubters could be waiting a while.

The team hasn’t taken its foot off the gas in the second chunk of the schedule and head coach Mike Brown won’t let his team – even his stars – get too comfortable.

Brown stressed the importance of winning every game as the Kings chase the No. 1 seed in the West and even calls out his best players, like Domantas Sabonis, for crucial miscues that could cost his team in the postseason.

But even the level-headed Brown couldn’t contain his amazement of the 7-footer on Saturday. Sabonis was nearly flawless in Sacramento’s win at Washington on the weekend, shooting 10-for-12 from the floor and getting to the foul line for 10 of 12 free throws, collecting 30 points in the victory.

Sabonis locks horns with a large Utah frontcourt tonight and NBA odds have his points prop parked at 20.5 (Over -130). He's gone Over his point total in back-to-back games and in three of his last four, putting up 30, 24, 14, and 23-point performances in that span. He’s scored 21+ points in seven of his last 10 contests overall.

The Utah Jazz may have plenty of beef up front, but they do struggle to slow down rival big men. Utah is the second-worst defense vs. opposing centers, giving up 38.3 points per game to the position. Sabonis is a matchup nightmare, with the ability to play with his back to the basket as well as stretch the defense with his shooting touch.

He can also beat his matchups off the dribble and that aggressiveness has paid off at the stripe in recent games, collecting 18 (on 21 free throws) of his 54 total points from the foul line the past two games. Utah sits 20th in personal fouls given and sends rivals to the stripe an average of 24.2 times per outing.

In the previous two matchups with the Jazz, Sabonis totaled 21 and 28 points on a collective 20-for-25 shooting as well as went 7-for-10 on free throws. I expect Sabonis to stay aggressive and attack a Utah interior that gives up 53.4 points in the paint per game.

Sabonis’ points prop is starting to tick up to 21.5 at some sportsbooks, so grab the lower number while you can. 

Pick: Domantas Sabonis Over 20.5 points (-130)

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Kings vs Jazz spread analysis

Sacramento opened as big as -6.5 late last night and that spread has since slimmed to Kings -5, with some books dealing -4.5. That move was an early indicator of Markkanen’s status, as the Jazz’s star was ruled out with a sore back after battling through that pain the past five games.

Utah has covered the spread in each of those five games, going 3-2 SU with the two losses each coming by four points. Some softer defensive opponents have led to an uptick in offense during this span (Dallas, Orlando, Charlotte) and Utah was able to catch Boston in a bad situational spot, with the Celtics having to play the second of back-to-back nights in the thin air of Salt Lake City.

Without Markkanen, it'll be tougher for the Jazz to keep pace with the King, who could be down guard Kevin Huerter and forward Trey Lyles tonight. Sacramento continues to overwhelm opponents with its scoring depth and even showed some defensive chops on this current road trip, boasting a rating of 111.2 the past three games.

That’s allowed the ATS windfall to continue to Kings bettors, who have enjoyed a 40-29-1 ATS record on the season, including a 23-12 ATS count on the road. As for Utah, it’s 18-15-1 ATS inside Vivint Arena which is part of an overall 39-29-2 ATS record.

These teams last met back in early January, with Sacramento winning 117-115 as a 3.5-point road underdog in Utah. However, the Jazz’s lineup looks a little different now after an active trade deadline.

Kings vs Jazz Over/Under analysis

This Over/Under number hit the board at 237.5 points and spiked as high as 241 as of Monday morning.

The Kings are the most potent offense in the NBA, topping the league in points per game and offensive rating. Sacramento was slowed a touch in the first two games of this road swing – scoring 117 at Chicago and 101 at Brooklyn – but found their form with a 132-118 victory at Washington on Saturday.

Oddsmakers have done a solid job padding Sacramento’s totals for most of the season, which is why the Kings own a 35-34-1 O/U record overall, but those tall totals haven’t been enough the past two months, with the Kings running out a 13-6 O/U streak in their last 19 outings, including an Over result from the win in Washington.

Utah has also been a solid performer for fans of the Over, with a 39-29-2 O/U mark on the season. The Jazz sit No. 6 in offensive rating and pour in more than 117 points per game, with that jumping to 118.4 average points at home.

They enter Monday’s contest having gone 6-0-1 O/U in seven games this month, thanks in large part to a defense that has struggled to be consistent despite having one of the bigger lineups in the land. Utah is 25th in defensive rating on the year but does allow just 115.3 points at home – almost four less than on the road.

The Jazz and Kings run a similar tempo in terms of pace rating (ranked 12th and 10th) on the season, and both have revved the engines since the All-Star break, sitting No. 4 and No. 6 respective in pace rating in that span.

These teams split their Over/Under results in their two meetings this season. The 117-115 Sacramento win in Utah on Jan. 3 played Under the closing total of 242.5 while the Kings’ 126-125 home win on December 30 went Over the 242.5-point total.  

Kings vs Jazz betting trend to know

The Over is 7-3-1 in the Kings’ last 11 road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Kings vs. Jazz.

Kings vs Jazz game info

Location: Vivint Arena, Salt Lake City, UT
Date: Monday, March 20, 2023
Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: ATTSN-Rocky Mountain, NBCS-California

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