It took 20 games, but the Dallas Mavericks have finally strung together back-to-back wins. However, the Miami Heat have just one loss in their last eight and are four-point favorites.
My Heat vs Mavericks predictions and NBA picks see Miami kicking off a season-high 7-game road trip with a convincing win on Wednesday, December 3.
Heat vs Mavericks prediction
Heat vs Mavericks best bet: Heat -4.5 (-110)
Offense has been a huge part of the Miami Heat’s success early on, as they rank second in the NBA in scoring at 124.3 points per game.
They’re second in assists at 30.3 per game, and fifth in 3-point shooting (38.2%).
The Heat beat the Dallas Mavericks on this current fun-run, where they held Dallas to 39% from the field, including a rough 12-for-40 night from 3-point range.
Dallas’ leading scorer in that game, PJ Washington, and leading rebounder Daniel Gafford, are both questionable in the rematch, both dealing with ankle injuries. Another frontcourt player, Dereck Lively (foot), has already been ruled out.
The Mavericks still have plenty of frontcourt heft to deal with. Rookie Cooper Flagg dropped a career-high 35 points in their win over the Clippers, while Anthony Davis went for 32 points and 13 rebounds against Denver.
Dallas has struggled at home, though, with its 4-9 record tied for the third-fewest home wins in the Western Conference.
Despite averaging 122.5 points per game over the last two victories, Dallas is a Bottom-5 scoring team, even before the possibility of Washington or Gafford sitting.
There’s no chill in Miami’s road splits, either. It actually has higher outputs in scoring, field-goal shooting, and 3-pointers, and should run through Dallas to kick off this trip.
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Heat vs Mavericks same-game parlay
The books seem to undervalue Davion Mitchell’s assist totals. He’s sixth in the NBA, averaging 7.8 per game, and has gone for at least nine dimes in four of his last five.
Bam Adebayo has topped his 18.5 scoring prop just three times in his last 10, including 17 against Dallas. He’ll come close, but will contribute more in non-scoring categories.
Heat vs Mavericks SGP
- Heat -4.5
- Davion Mitchell Over 6.5 assists
- Bam Adebayo Under 18.5 points
Our "from downtown" SGP: Holding out for a Herro
Davis is coming off his best scoring game (32 points) of the season. He had been eased back into the lineup the previous two games after a leg injury before busting out in Game 3. Taking out those tune-ups, AD has scored at least 23 points in four of the other five games.
It’s been buckets for Tyler Herro since returning from a foot injury, scoring at least 22 points in all four games. That includes 24 in his season debut on November 24 against Dallas.
Heat vs Mavericks SGP
- Heat -4.5
- Davion Mitchell Over 6.5 assists
- Bam Adebayo Under 18.5 points
- Anthony Davis Over 22.5 points
- Tyler Herro Over 21.5 points
Heat vs Mavericks odds
- Spread: Heat -170 | Mavericks +145
- Moneyline: Heat -4.5 (-110) | Mavericks +4.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 241.5 (-110) | Under 241.5 (-110)
Heat vs Mavericks betting trend to know
Miami has cashed the Over in four of its last six games. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Mavericks.
How to watch Heat vs Mavericks
| Location | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date | Wednesday, December 3, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSN Sun, KFAA |
Heat vs Mavericks latest injuries
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