The Los Angeles Lakers' season ending at the hands of the Oklahoma City Thunder in a disappointing — albeit expected — four-game sweep has most in the basketball world asking: Will LeBron James retire?
King James enters the summer as a free agent after completing his contract with the Lakers. Set to turn 42 years old in mid-December, LeBron averaged 20-plus points for a 23rd straight season, to go with 6.1 rebounds and 7.2 assists per game across 60 regular-season games. He elevated his game once again in the playoffs to average 23.2/6.7/7.3 over 10 games.
Will he return to the Lakers (or another team) to chase a fifth championship ring? We make our NBA picks for the offseason's hot-button topic below.
Will LeBron James retire?
Traders at Kalshi, one of our best prediction market apps, are giving LeBron James a 25.6% chance of announcing his retirement before the 2026-27 season following the Los Angeles Lakers' Game 4 loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder. The market has drawn $429,529 since it opened on June 14. James was initially given an 11% chance of retiring before the 2026-27 campaign. It peaked at a high of 46% in mid-January but has dipped again.
The Lakers failed to make the third round of the playoffs for a third straight year. But James, Luka Doncic, and Austin Reaves can keep this team competitive for several more seasons.
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
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LeBron James' contract
LeBron James completed the final year of a contract with the Los Angeles Lakers that carried a $59.5-million cap hit this season, according to Spotrac. The 23-year NBA veteran has reportedly not yet made any decisions on his playing future.
“I don’t know what the future holds for me, obviously, as it stands right now tonight,” the 41-year-old James said, according to Greg Beacham of the Associated Press. “I’ve got a lot of time now.
“I think I said it last year after we lost to Minnesota. I’ll go back and recalibrate with my family and talk with them and spend some time with them, and then obviously when the time comes, you guys will know what I decide to do.”
LeBron's son Bronny James averaged 2.9 points, 1.2 assists, and 0.5 rebounds per game over 42 games in the regular season, and averaged 5.3 minutes per game in the playoffs — he didn't play in Game 4 against the Thunder. Bryce James took a redshirt year as a freshman at Arizona, and will need to wait until at least the 2027 NBA Draft.
How old is LeBron James?
LeBron James, now done his 23rd NBA season, is 41 years old, and will turn 42 in December. The first overall pick of the 2003 NBA Draft played at least 45 regular-season games each year of his career. He played 60 games this season and didn't miss a playoff game.
Prediction
Despite several NBA teams likely to have interest in pursuing James as a free agent this offseason — including the Los Angeles Lakers, Cleveland Cavaliers, Golden State Warriors, and potentially the Los Angeles Clippers — I firmly expect James to call it quits before next season.
A $100 investment on James to retire at a Yes price of 22 cents at Kalshi would return a profit of $355.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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