As the Miami Heat and the New York Knicks prepare to face off in tonight's riveting NBA matchup, bettors should closely examine the key factors that could sway the game's outcome, including the dominant performances of stars like Jimmy Butler.
With Butler's history of scoring big against the Knicks — and the teams' past matchups resulting in closely-contested, high-scoring games — this showdown promises to be a thrilling spectacle for fans, and a potentially profitable opportunity for savvy bettors.
Find out your best options with our free NBA picks and predictions for Heat vs. Knicks on Wednesday, March 29.
Heat vs Knicks best odds
Heat vs Knicks picks and predictions
Jimmy Butler is poised for a big night against the New York Knicks, and there are several factors that indicate he will score Over 23.5 points.
Butler's history against the Knicks clearly indicates that he has the ability to dominate them on the offensive end tonight. He’s averaging 24.8 points per game against them since joining the Miami Heat.
New York has consistently shown that it has difficulty containing Butler’s aggressive and tenacious style of play. Furthermore, his recent streak of scoring at least 23 points in nine straight games overall demonstrates his offensive consistency and ability to put up big numbers night after night.
The Knicks' defensive struggles are another factor contributing to Butler's potential success in this spot. Their inability to effectively guard small forwards has been evident throughout the season, as they currently allow a league-high 23.6 points per game to players at this position.
The Knicks' starting lineup lacks the necessary defensive prowess to contain Butler, with players like Quentin Grimes and RJ Barrett often struggling against him. Additionally, while Josh Hart has had some success guarding Butler, he still lacks the physicality to consistently prevent him from getting to the free-throw line.
Butler's knack for drawing fouls and converting from the charity stripe plays a significant role in his scoring output. In the last two games against the Knicks, he managed to get to the line an impressive 34 times. His ability to draw contact and make free throws at a high rate will be crucial in helping him achieve the 23.5-point mark against the Knicks tonight.
Finally, Butler's performance in the previous matchup between these two teams is an encouraging sign for his prospects tonight. Scoring 35 points and making frequent trips to the free-throw line, he displayed his ability to exploit the Knicks' weaknesses.
Given his history against New York and his current form, it's reasonable to expect Butler to continue his scoring streak and surpass the 23.5-point threshold here.
My best bet: Butler Over 23.5 points (-115 at FanDuel)
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Heat vs Knicks spread analysis
Tonight's game between the Knicks and the Heat has a spread of -5 in favor of the Knicks, which could make for an interesting wager considering their previous matchups this season. In the three games they've played against each other so far, the Knicks hold a 2-1 ATS record.
Both teams are known for their gritty, hard-nosed style of play, with stars like Butler and Julius Randle often having a significant impact on the outcome. These factors contribute to the expectation of a closely-contested, grind-it-out game.
The Heat rank eighth in the NBA with a 114.2 defensive rating. However, the Knicks have been able to put up impressive offensive numbers against them, scoring 120 or more points in their last two matchups. The Heat held Randle in check last time around (15 points), and that could be the case again if they continue to get physical with him.
It's worth noting that the Knicks have a few players on the injury report, but their recent performance against the spread is hard to ignore. New York boasts a 9-3-1 ATS record in their past 13 games overall, and an impressive 7-2-1 ATS record in their last 10 games at Madison Square Garden.
On the other hand, Miami has been struggling on the road, with a 2-6 ATS record in their last eight away games, and a 3-8 ATS record in their past 11 games against winning teams.
Heat vs Knicks Over/Under analysis
The Over/Under for this one is set between 222.5 and 223 points, depending on the sportsbook. Bettors should strongly consider the recent Over trends for both of these teams.
The Over has cashed in six of the Heat's past eight games, and has hit in five of their last six meetings with the Knicks, including two games since March 3.
While the Under has cashed in four consecutive games for the Knicks, the Over boasts a 9-1-1 record in their last 11 games against teams with a winning overall mark. This suggests that the Knicks tend to be involved in high-scoring games when facing more formidable opponents, whether it’s due to their offense answering the bell, their defense failing to step up, or a combination of the two.
Given these trends, and the fact that both teams have key players who can contribute significantly to the score on both offense and defense, bettors should carefully weigh the likelihood of a high-scoring game tonight.
Heat vs Knicks betting trend to know
The Over is 9-1-1 in the Knicks' last 11 games against teams with winning SU records. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Knicks.
Heat vs Knicks game info
|Location:||Madison Square Garden, New York, NY|
|Date:||Wednesday, March 29, 2023|
|Tip-off:||7:30 p.m. ET|
|TV:||Bally Sun, MSG|