Heat vs Celtics Picks and Predictions: Boston's Offense Shows No Signs of Slowing Down

Boston is back to being one of the premier teams in the NBA, and its offensive firepower plays a major part in that. Playing against a beaten-up Heat team, our NBA betting picks expect plenty of offense in this one.

Last Updated: Nov 30, 2022 1:54 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Jayson Tatum Boston Celtics NBA
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The red-hot Boston Celtics will try to win their fifth straight game when they host the Miami Heat on Wednesday night.

Boston has won nine of its last 10 and is currently on a nine-game home winning streak. Miami is playing well as of late too, having won its last three contests.

Both teams are playing well despite being banged up, and each has a few question marks heading into Wednesday’s game. We’ll break down what this means for bettors in our NBA betting picks and predictions for the Heat vs. Celtics on November 30.

Heat vs Celtics best odds

Heat vs Celtics picks and predictions

A year after reaching the NBA Finals, the Celtics once again look like the class of the Eastern Conference and can make a case as the best team in the NBA. Boston has a league-best 17-4 record, has been nearly unbeatable at home, and has continued winning despite injuries to some key players.

On Monday, the Celtics beat the Charlotte Hornets by 35 points despite being without Jaylen Brown and Al Horford. Brown remains questionable for Wednesday night, while Horford is listed as probable. 

Boston won big on the strength of its offensive firepower. Jayson Tatum led the way with 35 points, while Marcus Smart added 22 en route to a season-high 140 points. 

That output is nothing new for the Celtics. Boston leads the NBA in scoring, averaging 121.3 points per game. It's also the best in the league in 3-point shooting (40.3%) and free throw percentage (85.2%). 

The Heat have a long injury list, with virtually their entire roster listed as probable or questionable heading into Wednesday night. However, Miami will likely get star forward Jimmy Butler back for the showdown with the Celtics. Butler is scoring 20.9 ppg, but missed the last six games with a knee injury.

That addition should help spark a sputtering Miami offense. The Heat are averaging just 108.4 points per game, and only scored over 110 points once during Butler’s absence. The C's aren't a defensive-minded team, but they play well enough without the ball that Miami will need all of its weapons to stay in this game.

There’s no reason to think that this game will be low scoring. Boston has scored at least 122 points in each of its last four games and appears to be clicking on all cylinders right now. With the Over/Under set around 223 at most sportsbooks, even a typical Celtics night will leave Miami with relatively little to do to hit that number. 

With the Heat getting their best scorer back tonight, I expect they will own up to their end of the bargain and push the final total well beyond the current total on the market. Let’s hunt for the lowest total we can find, then hammer the Over before watching the points roll in at TD Garden tonight.

My best bet: Over 222.5 (-110 at Caesars)

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Heat vs Celtics spread analysis

Boston opened tonight’s game as an eight-point favorite. Since then, the line has moved to Celtics -9 at most books, with some going as high as -9.5. 

The Celtics haven’t just been great straight up this season, but they’ve also played well against the spread. Boston is 13-8 ATS on the year, including 8-3 ATS at home. The Heat are just 7-13-1 ATS on the season.

These two teams have already played once this year in Miami, with the Celtics winning 111-104. Boston led nearly wire to wire, with Miami tightening the game in the fourth quarter but never actually threatening to win. 

Boston has only played better as the season has gone on, and its recent offensive output will be hard for Miami to keep up with. The Celtics are also playing at home where they have been nearly impossible to beat this year. There’s also some uncertainty as to who will play for the Heat tonight, with Tyler Herro and Max Strus among those on the injury report heading into Wednesday’s game.

It’s hard to lay nine points in an NBA game, especially when the opposition isn’t awful. But in tonight’s matchup, I think the Celtics are the play. I’ll probably stay away from this market due to the large spread, but if you want to place a bet, lay the points with Boston.

Heat vs Celtics Over/Under analysis

Initially, books opened tonight’s game with a total of 225. Bettors have taken the Over/Under down to about 223 at most sites as of noon on Wednesday.

So far this season, both teams have a tendency towards the Over. The Over is 12-8-1 in Celtics games and 11-10 in Miami’s contests.

As I wrote above, my pick here is the Over. The Celtics have played Over the current total in 11 straight games, as they continue to engage teams in shootouts and score more points than any team in the NBA. 

The Heat are exactly the opposite, playing a lower-scoring brand of basketball. However, there have been a number of teams that have been able to push Miami into higher-scoring games throughout the season, while nobody has been able to slow down the Celtics over the past few weeks.

These teams did play a relatively low-scoring game with a total of 215 in their first meeting back in October. But that came before the Boston offense truly started to click, and the game was played in Miami, where the Heat were better able to control the tone of the game. 

In Boston, the Celtics should be able to continue their scoring barrage, and Miami should get over 100 points as they try to stay in the game. I’m betting the Over with confidence.

Heat vs Celtics betting trend to know

The Over is 7-1 in Boston’s last eight home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Celtics.

Heat vs Celtics game info

Location: TD Garden, Boston, MA
Date: Wednesday, November 30, 2022
Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET

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