Hawks vs Warriors Picks and Predictions: Home is Where the Dubs Are

Tonight's matchup between the Atlanta Hawks and the Golden State Warriors is a lesson in adversity. The 17-19 Hawks have been struggling all year long, and it’s devolved into public speculation about Trae Young’s future with the team as well as that of head coach Nate McMillan. 

By contrast, the Warriors have turned their season around absent two of their three best players, and look unbeatable at home. At 19-18, they’re now over .500 for the first time since October.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Hawks vs. Warriors expect Golden State to keep their winning streak rolling at Chase Center.

Hawks vs Warriors best odds

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Hawks vs Warriors picks and predictions

All teams, even the exceptionally good ones, struggle in the minutes they play without their No.1 option. If you look at data for lineups without Luka Doncic, Nikola Jokic, or LeBron James on the court through the years, it’s a grisly sight. Coaches often get a ton of blame for those minutes, because it seems like they have a simple problem: figure out how to play credible basketball when your star rests for 12 minutes a game. 

It doesn’t seem like too much to ask, but it’s proven to be one of the most persistent issues in the modern NBA. Even in the halcyon days of the 2017 Golden State Warriors, the Dubs still lost the minutes without Steph Curry in the game, even when Kevin Durant was surrounded by the other starters.

So it wasn’t surprising that the Warriors, with a roster overstuffed with young and not quite ready for primetime players, fared very poorly in the games immediately following Curry’s injury. 

But the Warriors have now won four straight without Steph or Andrew Wiggins around to help, in part due to a totally irrational reality: this team, which is not all that good, is practically unbeatable on its home floor. It's nearly beyond belief but the Warriors simultaneously own the league's worst road record (3-16) and the league’s best home record (16-2). 

At home, the averages and efficiency for every player on the Warriors skyrocket, particularly Jordan Poole, who is up to 30.75 points per game during this four-game homestand without Steph. One thing that seems clear is that while Poole is no Curry, he’s a much better player when emulating Steph than when he's playing off of him, as this recent stretch has seen him play some of the best ball of his life as the Warriors' go-to guy.

The Warriors' home dominance extends to the spread, too, where they are continuing to outperform even oddsmakers-adjusted expectations at Chase Center, going 13-4-1 against the spread at home.

It remains to be seen if this newfound confidence as a unit will hold up on their first Steph-less road trip, but for tonight’s matchup, they should continue to prove fierce competition for a sputtering Hawks team.

My best bet: Warriors -2.5 (-107 at Pinnacle)

Hawks vs Warriors spread analysis

While it’s not quite as striking as Golden State's' road woes, Atlanta has also been fairly futile away from State Farm Arena. The Hawks are 6-11 ATS on the road and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall. There’s an overall joylessness to Hawks basketball at the moment that stands in stark contrast to the chemistry the Warriors have shown over the last four games.

Atlanta’s underwhelming performance as the road team extends into last season, and this year's version is noticeably weaker in the wake of trading Kevin Huerter and the continued absence of Clint Capela. Atlanta is 5-21 ATS in its last 26 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Most teams don’t fare particularly well against such dominant home squads, but that is an abysmal mark that augers poorly for their chances tonight.

Further, in terms of spread differential, only the turbulent Minnesota Timberwolves have fared worse ATS this season than the Hawks. That’s only gotten worse over the last six games, where they’ve posted a -4.1 spread differential per Cleaning the Glass. 

Hawks vs Warriors Over/Under analysis

Tonight's total has come in at a sky-high 233.5. That seems to follow from the Hawks’ side of things, who have seen the Over cash in eight of their last 11 games and four of their last five on the road. 

But the Warriors have been winning largely with defense and have even more substantial trends supporting the Under. The Under has cashed in all four games of the Warriors' current winning streak at home and is also 12-2 in their previous 14 home games overall.

On top of that, it’s 6-0 when they play against teams with a losing road record. The Warriors defense really does come to play at home, and it's not clear if the Hawks will be able to exploit Poole with their current alignment.

But I’d still be wary about betting the Under because Golden State is missing so many frontcourt players. There was initially hope that Wiggins could make his long-awaited return to action for Monday’s game but he’s now set to miss his 13th straight contest. Now, Jonathan Kuminga, who has been closing games recently and making some big defensive plays, is also going to be out. The Warriors' backup minutes at the four and five could lead to a lot of Hawks buckets.

Hawks vs Warriors betting trend to know

The Hawks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Hawks vs. Warriors.

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