The Atlanta Hawks continue to wage war with mediocrity, sitting at 23-23, just above the East's scrap-heap of underachieving squads.
But mediocre won't cut it tonight, as they visit the NBA's best ATS team — the Phoenix Suns.
Let's break down the matchup and find out where the best NBA betting value lies with our free picks and predictions for Hawks vs. Suns on March 30.
Atlanta Hawks at Phoenix Suns betting preview
Injuries
Hawks: Cam Reddish SF (Out), Kris Dunn PG (Out), Clint Capela C (Questionable), Bogdan Bogdanovic SG (Questionable), Danilo Gallinari SF (Questionable), De'Andre Hunter SF (Questionable).
Suns: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Suns are 7-0 ATS in their last seven following an ATS loss. Find more NBA betting trends for Hawks vs. Suns.
NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonPhoenix went up Monday night as a 6.5-point favorite at FanDuel, briefly touched -7 this morning, then slid down to -5.5, where the number sits at 7 p.m. ET. Still, the Suns are taking 77 percent of spread bets and 83 percent of spread money. The total bounced from 221 to 220 to 221.5 and is now 221, with 69 percent of bets/70 percent of cash on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this game
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Hawks are in tough tonight, on the road against the very best ATS team in the NBA. Phoenix has covered in exactly two-thirds of its games this year, including a fairly-consistent 24-13 mark as favorites.
Atlanta comes into this game having beaten up on a fairly buttery schedule earlier this month, reeling off eight straight wins against sub-.500 teams, plus the crippled Lakers. The Hawks have also covered in six of their past nine games.
Of note for Atlanta is the possible return of De'Andre Hunter tonight. Hunter was the Hawks' best two-way player before going down with a knee injury, which has limited him to just two games since January.
But in general, the Hawks' injury report reads like an NFL team, with as many as three starters and their sixth man all possibly sidelined tonight.
The Suns' exploits speak for themselves, and Phoenix should be a nightmare defensive matchup for Atlanta's Trae Young to try and permeate. With so many bodies potentially in suits, it's very tough to side with Atlanta against the cream of the NBA's ATS crop.
PREDICTION: Phoenix -7.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The Hawks were one of the NBA's most automatic Under bets early in the season after oddsmakers were slow to adjust to their slower-than-expected pace and shocking competence on D.
Atlanta corrected that margin by reeling off eight straight Overs in February, and has split its totals at 8-8 O/U since then. Phoenix has been reliant on its defense so far this season – mildly surprising for a team with several potent weapons on offense – and is currently the league's ninth-worst team at eclipsing the total.
Bettors shouldn't expect a track meet tonight, as Phoenix and Atlanta are the league's fifth and seventh-slowest teams, respectively. The game script also suggests more of a defensive effort, with Atlanta weathering so many injuries and less apt to a well-rounded scoring effort if the Suns clamp down on Young.
We wouldn't be surprised if this game turned into a bit of a ground-and-pound, and the Under seems like the safer bet.
PREDICTION: Under 222.5 (-110)
First quarter prop pick
The Suns one-up their full-game ATS excellence by going 30-14-1 against first-quarter spreads, another NBA-best mark for this ascendant roster.
Atlanta could be severely hampered from their usual starting set, with as many as four of their top guys sidelined, putting even more onus on Young, who, again, draws a poor matchup.
Atlanta has pounced on soft defensive teams in their past few opening quarters - don't count on that happening here.
PREDICTION: Phoenix 1Q -1.5 (-110)
Hawks vs Suns betting card
- Phoenix -7.5 (-110)
- Under 222.5 (-110)
- Phoenix 1Q -1.5 (-110)
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