A light NBA betting night on Tuesday features a matchup between the East-leading Philadelphia 76ers and the surging Denver Nuggets.
Both teams are playing good ball right now as they jockey for top seeds in their respective conferences. One team is doing it with a powerhouse offense while the other is a nightly problem on the defensive end, making for an intriguing showdown in Denver.
Here are our best free picks and predictions for 76ers vs. Nuggets, with tip-off set for 9:00 p.m. ET at Ball Arena.
Philadelphia 76ers at Denver Nuggets betting preview
Injuries
76ers: Joel Embiid C (Out), George Hill PG (Out).
Nuggets: Gary White SF (Questionable), Monte Morris PG (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Philadelphia is 11-3-1 ATS over its last 15 games. Find more NBA betting trends for 76ers vs. Nuggets.
NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonAs of 5:15 p.m. ET today, Denver is out to a 5-point favorite at PointsBet USA, after opening -3.5 Monday afternoon. The Nuggets are attracting 72 percent of spread bets and 79 percent of spread dollars. The total is down to 220.5 from a 222 opener, with the Over drawing 77 percent of bets, but just 52 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAgainst the spread (ATS) pick
Denver has been rolling lately, winning three of its last four games and 11 of its last 14. The Nuggets, 9-5 ATS over that stretch, are fifth in the West at 10 games over. 500 and made one of the biggest trade deadline moves by acquiring Aaron Gordon from the Orlando Magic.
They are playing their best basketball of the season after a lot of inconsistent play and have been the No. 1 team in the NBA in offensive rating, effective field goal percentage, and rebounding percentage over those 14 contests.
While Nikola Jokic continues to cement himself in the NBA MVP mix with his strong all-around play, Denver has gotten big production out of Michael Porter Jr. of late and he’s been a big reason why this dynamic offensive team is humming along so well. Since the All-Star break, Porter Jr. is averaging 20.5 points on 58 percent shooting from the field (51 percent from deep with 2.6 triples per game) and pulling in 8.3 rebounds.
Denver will have a hard time playing at this offensive level against the 76ers, who are the No. 1 team in defensive rating over that same 14-game stretch.
Philadelphia hasn’t missed a beat since Joel Embiid went down with a knee injury, going 6-2 without its superstar big man, and is impressively holding on to the top seed in the East. The 76ers are 12-3 SU in their last 15 games and have gone a sizzling 11-3-1 ATS over that stretch. Doc Rivers’ Sixers have been a strong ATS play all season - covering at the fourth-best rate in the NBA at 59.1 percent - and we’re going to back them in this spot.
PREDICTION: Philadelphia +4.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Do you lean on the elite offense or the elite defense for this marquee matchup?
It’s no fluke that these teams have been the NBA’s best offense and defense over the past month. Through 46 games, the Nuggets are second in offensive rating, second in field goal percentage, third in assists, fourth in points per game, and fifth in 3-point percentage. Behind the Jokic-led offense, they’ve been a Top-5 team at going Over, with a 28-18 O/U mark.
The Sixers, meanwhile, are second in defensive rating, trailing only the Los Angeles Lakers. They lead the NBA in blocks per game, are second in steals, and hold opponents to the fourth-lowest mark from the field. Philadelphia is 24-22 O/U on the season, but 3-5 since Embiid went down.
Before giving up 122 to the Los Angeles Clippers in their last game, the Sixers had held teams to 101 points or fewer in five of the seven games Embiid missed. They have a good offense but are obviously worse off without their star big man, and his absence will always cap their offensive upside. But so far it has done nothing to hurt them on the defensive end and we like them to be able to at least partially slow down a Denver team that plays at the second-slowest pace in the NBA.
PREDICTION: Under 221 (-110)
Player prop pick
One player who has benefitted from Embiid’s absence is Danny Green.
The veteran is capitalizing on his increased usage and averaging 15.3 points per game over his last eight and he’s been unconscious from long range. He’s shooting 50 percent from deep and drilling 4.3 per contest, nailing 13 in his last two games alone. That’s nearly six more points per game, two more 3-balls, and a 10-percent improvement from deep since Embiid got hurt.
Green has fit in really well with the Sixers and provided them with a much-needed threat from outside. As long as Embiid is out, look for Philadelphia to keep him highly involved in the offense. Green is at -118 odds to go Over 2.5 3-pointers tonight, which seems automatic for him. If you’re really feeling him to stay hot, he’s at +230 to nail four-plus 3s and +330 odds to go score 15 or more points. Either way, the sharpshooter provides good value in this matchup for bettors looking at a prop play.
PREDICTION: Danny Green Over 2.5 Made 3-pointers (-118)
76ers vs Nuggets betting card
- Philadelphia +4.5 (-110)
- Under 221 (-110)
- Danny Green Over 2.5 Made 3-pointers (-118)
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