The Grizzlies visit the Warriors today in an NBA betting matchup with all the marbles on the line, where the winner gets the eighth and final playoff spot and the loser can look forward to next year.
Wait, what's that? There's a "play-in" tournament? OK, so maybe not ALL the marbles are in play, but the winning side does have a more favorable spot in the play-in tournament, while the loser will have to win consecutive games to get into the playoffs.
Oddsmakers have the Dubs as solid home favorites, as Steph Curry is also looking to put a bow on his second career scoring title.
How does the game play out? Check out our free NBA picks and predictions for Grizzlies vs. Warriors to find out, with tip-off set for 3:30 p.m. ET.
Grizzlies vs Warriors game info
• Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
• Date: Sunday, May 16, 2021
• Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Grizzlies vs Warriors odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonGolden State opened -4.5 overnight at PointsBet USA, dipped to -3.5, rose to -5, then again fell back to -3.5, where the line stands at 1 p.m. ET. "Seventy-three percent of bets and 58 percent of money on the Warriors," PointsBet's Wyatt Yearout said. The total opened at 229.5, peaked at 230.5 and is now 228, with 55 percent of bets and 77 percent of money on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gameGrizzlies at Warriors betting preview
Injuries
Grizzlies: Grayson Allen G (Out), Sean McDermott F (Out).
Warriors: Damion Lee G (Out), Kelly Oubre Jr. F (Out), James Wiseman C (Out), Klay Thompson G (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
[Stat]. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Warriors.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Let's start with what's at stake here: the winner of this game will finish eighth in the West, meaning they could lose their first play-in game and still have a shot at the postseason, while the loser will finish ninth and have to win two straight games to reach the traditional postseason.
Memphis is well-rested heading into this pivotal showdown with Golden State. The Grizz sat eight players — including all five starters — in Friday's win over Sacramento so they are coming in locked and loaded. They also appear to be surging at the right time, winning six of their last seven games, but it's hard to tell if they're actually playing well because they haven't played many good teams lately.
Five of those six wins came against the Timberwolves, Raptors, Pelicans and Kings (twice) — all non-playoff teams. The only postseason-bound team they've played in that stretch is Dallas, but it's their only win against a team over .500 in three weeks.
And guess what? The Warriors are over .500 and they're coming to steal ALL your lunch money.
The Dubs have won (and covered) five straight and seven of eight, including wins over No. 1 seed Utah and No. 2 Phoenix, with Steph Curry leading the way for a hypercharged offense that resembles the peak Warrior teams of years past.
Curry is averaging 36.7 points per game since the beginning of April and even without a number of key rotational pieces, the Warriors have been averaging 120.5 over their last eight contests as Andrew Wiggins 22.9 ppg and Jordan Poole (18.1 ppg) are among the five additional warriors averaging double figures over this stretch.
Golden State has also clamped down on defense, giving up just 106.4 points per game over their last eight, and have given up an average of 107 points in two games against the Grizzlies this year — splitting a back-to-back set in Memphis back in late March.
This is the first meeting between these clubs in the Bay, where the Warriors have covered in 7 of the last 10 head-to-head matchups, and considering Memphis hasn't been tested that much recently we're going to lean with Steph & Co. to punch a ticket into the top half of the play-in tournament.
PREDICTION: Warriors -5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The total for this game currently sits at 230, and it's a classic matchup between a hot Under team and a club that's been hitting Overs recently—but beyond the surface this has us leaning towards a higher scoring game.
Golden State has cashed the Over in four straight games overall and four straight at the Chase Center. The Grizz, meanwhile, have seen the Under cash in five of their last six, but again a deeper look shows that against playoff teams, Memphis is actually 10-3 O/U is the last 13 such matchups.
We like the Warriors to come away with a win, which means their strong offensive outputs should likely continue. Golden State has dropped at least 118 points in six of their last seven, and even if they finish around that number, it's not a stretch to have the Grizzlies score enough to get this over the number.
PREDICTION: Over 230 (-110)
Player prop pick
We mentioned above how Steph Curry has gone supernova to finish out the season, well this nuclear stretch has also vaulted him to the top of the NBA scoring race, where his 31.8 ppg on the season sits just ahead of Bradley Beal's 31.4 ppg.
The Wizards will tip-off at 1:00 p.m. ET and while Beal isn't guaranteed to play, Curry will certainly go into this game knowing exactly how much he'll need to score. That said, Curry won't even need to top 30 points unless Beal drops 50, but when have we ever known Chef Curry to not cook up something spectacular when the spotlight is on?
He has a high point total for today but with a chance to emphatically clinch the scoring title, and also put the finishing touches on an insane late-season surge where he's dragged the Dubs to the No. 8 seed... are you really going to bet against Steph?
No, I didn't think so.
PREDICTION: Steph Curry Over 35.5 points (-115)
Grizzlies vs Warriors betting card
- Warriors -5 (-110)
- Over 230 (-110)
- Steph Curry Over 35.5 points (-115)
Picks made on 5/16/2021 at 11:24 a.m. ET
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