Grizzlies vs Nuggets Picks and Predictions: Memphis Continues to Defy the Odds

The Denver Nuggets have just about lost sight of homecourt in the West, and now must jockey with Utah for the No. 5 seed.

Speaking of Utah, the Memphis Grizzlies just rolled into Salt Lake City and took the Jazz to overtime, and now will aim for an even better result in the Mile High. 

Find out if the Nuggets can keep pace with one of the conference's best in our Grizzlies vs. Nuggets NBA picks and predictions for Thursday, April 7.

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Grizzlies vs Nuggets odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Books opened Denver as a -2.5 favorite early Wednesday afternoon, with some movement to -3 as of Wednesday night. The total opened between 232 and 233 and has moved up as high as 233.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Grizzlies vs Nuggets predictions

• Prediction: Grizzlies +3 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 232.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Grizzlies ML (+126)

Predictions made on 4/6/2022 at 7:55 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Grizzlies vs Nuggets game info

• Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
• Date: Thursday, April 7, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Altitude, Bally Sports South East

Grizzlies vs Nuggets betting preview

Key injuries

Grizzlies: Ja Morant PG (Out), Dillon Brooks SF (Questionable).
Nuggets: Jamal Murray PG (Out), Michael Porter Jr. SF (Out), Jeff Green PF (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Grizzlies are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Nuggets.

Grizzlies vs Nuggets picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

The extent to which small-market Memphis has outperformed expectations this season continues to be one of the NBA's most feel-good stories — and, perhaps, one of the most impactful to its ultimate outcome.

The Grizzlies have beaten the living crap out of teams all season long, both with and without former Top-5 NBA MVP odds contender Ja Morant. Since Ja last played against Atlanta on March 18, the Grizzlies are 7-1 straight up, with wins over the Nets, Bucks and Suns, and an average margin of +17.7 points in the seven wins. Overall, the Grizzlies are 20-2 SU without Morant this season — this team's depth cannot be oversold.

Meanwhile, Denver has looked very shaky down the stretch, despite Nikola Jokic's constant heroics. The Nuggets are just 5-5 SU and 3-7 ATS in their past 10 games, including a 19-point drubbing by the Spurs in their last outing. Without consistent backup scoring (Joker is the only guy giving them 15+ ppg), Jokic can only drag this team so far, especially with an average-at-best defense that's sunk to the league's fourth-worst rating over the last 10 games. 

Over that same 10-game sample, Memphis has the league's best defense and third-best offense. The Grizz match up very well with Jokic, as the rare team that can counter him with both a big body (Steven Adams) and elite rim protector (Jaren Jackson Jr.). Jackson is also mobile and long enough to cover Jokic in space, so he won't be any more comfortable setting up shop on the perimeter. 

And while the Grizzlies' leading scorer is down, their arsenal has been put on full display the past several weeks, with multiple guys who can easily drop 20+ and a litany of double-digit scorers, while causing the defensive uncertainty that such a diverse attack fosters. Denver's going to have to step up considerably on D from its current form to stop Memphis.

Forget any ostensible "mile-high advantage" the Nuggets might have here — they're an awful 14-25 ATS at home this season, the NBA's third-worst mark. Memphis covers on the road at a 64% rate and is perpetually one of the league's hottest teams. Don't fade them here.

Prediction: Grizzlies +3 (-110 at DraftKings)

Over/Under analysis

This matchup gives us two of the league's best offenses, both Top-10 on the season and at an identical 118.9 O-rating (tied for third) over their past 10 games.

We should also regard the Grizzlies as enablers in most circumstances, pushing the action with their fast-breaking, turnover-forcing tendencies. Denver, while typically methodical on offense (20th in pace on the season), is a bit of a chameleon that can battle in shootouts and has topped this total in six of its past 10.

The Grizzlies have shut down poor offenses (and, quasi-randomly, the Bucks) for one-sided Unders recently, while averaging 121.2 ppg since Morant went down. Denver's doing their part with 118.7 over the same sample, and Jokic's presence should prevent the Nugs from being completely stymied.

The Nuggets have been trending towards higher-scoring games in recent weeks, and Memphis has been liable for high-scoring games all season long. 

We're getting a total that's safely below these teams' combined recent output, in an environment where they should both be positive catalysts for an Over.

Prediction: Over 232.5 (-110 at Caesars)

Best bet

The fact that Denver's favored in this game speaks to some sort of public misperception about what these two teams are accomplishing right now. 

Yes, it's easy to glance at this game and see a Grizzlies team punching above its weight that's due for a regression, and a Denver team with the reigning (and possibly repeating) MVP in a sport where star power means everything. 

But the Grizzlies have just been too thorough, now matter how depleted their lineup. They've recently beaten tougher teams than Denver, consistently, with as many as four starters missing — and again, by an average of 17.7 points since Morant went down. 

This Grizz team is hungry, almost to a defiant extent, and seems intent on proving itself to the entire league, no matter how little a need remains to do so. 

Denver's floundering, and while Jokic can easily put up another MVP-type effort, Memphis is flying so high right now that it might not matter. At this price, back it to make another statement.

Pick: Grizzlies moneyline (+126 at FanDuel)

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