Grizzlies vs Knicks Picks and Predictions: Grizz Rebound From OT Heartbreak

Two teams having very different seasons collide Wednesday night as the Memphis Grizzlies visit the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden.

Memphis seemed bound for another lower-rung playoff seed in the West, but instead has the third-best record in the entire NBA. Contrastingly, New York appeared bent on building upon last year's surprise postseason appearance, and instead are stuck in the lottery.

Find out if the Knicks can break back into the play-in picture with our Grizzlies vs. Knicks NBA betting picks and predictions for February 2.

Grizzlies vs Knicks odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Memphis opened anywhere between -1.5 and -3.5 and sits as a 3.5-point favorite at most outlets as of Wednesday morning. The total hit the books between 216.5 and 217.5 and sits mostly at 217.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Grizzlies vs Knicks predictions

• Prediction: Memphis -3.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 217 (-110)
• Best bet: Memphis - 3.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Jackson Over 3.5 blocks+steals (+145)

Predictions made on 2/2/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Grizzlies vs Knicks game info

• Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
• Date: Wednesday, February 2, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Grizzlies vs Knicks betting preview

Injuries

Grizzlies: Steven Adams C (Questionable), Dillon Brooks SG (Out). 
Knicks: Derrick Rose PG (Out), Luka Samanic PF (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Grizzlies are 8-2 against the spread in their last ten games as a favorite. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Knicks.

Grizzlies vs Knicks picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

If the Knicks start to pick up some momentum at some point this year, don't count on tonight being the turning point. 

New York has been floundering all season, consistently struggling to compete with quality opposition. At just 1-6 straight up against plus-.500 teams in January, the Knicks are beating up on flotsam to stay anywhere near the playoff picture.

Instead of flotsam tonight, they get the Grizzlies, who have just flat-out been one of the best teams in the NBA. Memphis is also the league's very best squad against the spread this season, hitting in 64% of its games.

Often an indicator of legitimacy in the NBA's upper tier, the Grizz are a Top-10 team on both sides of the ball, ranking eighth in both offensive and defensive rating. They're everything the Knicks aren't: young, athletic, enthusiastic, and inspired. They play hard every night, win or lose. 

Ja Morant is unlike any weapon the Knicks have, and is currently on the hottest run of his fringe-MVP season, scoring 30+ in seven straight games. While the Knicks have been getting back to Tom Thibodeau-style defense with a Top-10 rating over their past 10 games, they're ill-equipped to contain Morant with a leaky backcourt. Expect Ja's off-the-bounce attacks to keep New York in constant flux — rotations will have to be on-point against a team with a not-so-small army of players that can create their own shots versus a scrambling defense.

Even if the Knicks manage to do an effective job containing the Grizzlies on defense (which we're not necessarily keen on — Memphis is No. 5 in the NBA in scoring over its past 15 games), where they're likely to lose this game is on the offensive end. Over that same 15-game sample, New York is 29th in scoring and 26th in offensive rating. It just doesn't have the punch to compete with the NBA's current hottest scorer and two of its higher-upside supporting triggermen in Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr.

The Knicks like to grind games to a halt and pray they can have a good-enough shooting night to survive within a low-scoring slog. The Grizzlies attack relentlessly, forcing turnovers at the NBA's fifth-best rate and leading the league in fast break points. They can impose their will on pretty much any lineup, and will almost certainly take the Knicks far out of their comfort zone. 

Every trend and matchup indicator here points to Memphis, who is actually a better ATS team on the road than at home this season. Don't count on the Knicks messing with that.

Prediction: Memphis -3.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

This total is set fairly competitively at 217, a shade under the 220.6 points per game Memphis totals on average, and well above the 208.7 New York produces.

This makes sense, given that we're expecting the Grizzlies to dictate tempo and force more quick possessions through fast breaks and Morant lightning strikes, rather than the Knicks suppressing them into a halfcourt grind. 

But while the Grizzlies force turnovers and defend the rim very well (Jackson had roughly 7,000 blocks in January), they also concede the NBA's sixth-worst opponent 3-point percentage, and often gamble on help to force said turnovers, leaving them a step behind on close-outs and in passing lanes. 

This creates opportunities for a Knicks squad that's sorely lacked go-to scoring, and can open up looks for guys like Evan Fournier and Alec Burks to make large contributions. 

The Grizzlies like to play fast and loose. This game should ultimately sneak Over, even if Memphis has to do most of the legwork itself.

Prediction: Over 217 (-110)

Best bets

Grizz biz

As mentioned, we think the Grizzlies are a poor matchup for the Knicks both in terms of on-court makeup and current form. Memphis plays better on both sides of the ball, is far deeper, and is led by a weapon of mass destruction that could mess New York up worse than a Michael Bay movie.

The Grizzlies have also covered in five straight games following an ATS loss, and after a tough OT defeat in Philly, are going to be pissed off tonight. Memphis pissed off is generally a bad thing for its opponents. 

Fade the Knicks here.

Pick: Memphis -3.5 (-110)

Jare bears

While we might have mildly exaggerated Jaren Jackson's January blocks tally in a section above, he's been an absolute force of late, averaging a combined 4.4 blocks + steals last month.

Jackson's total in the combined market is set at a plus-money 3.5 tonight, which we're hammering even in spite of the Knicks' slower pace of play. 

Jackson is 10-3 against this total in his last 13 games and because of the finite nature of defensive stats, there isn't a ton of room to maneuver when books set the markets, aside from adjusting juice. It seems outlandish to think Jackson won't regress at some point, but this is a true unicorn who was drafted with visions of a future DPOY-type uber-rim-protector. He just might be breaking the mold.

Regardless of the matchup or long-term sustainability of Jackson's numbers, we're getting +145 on a prop he's been consistently nailing for almost a month. We need to take that value and keep riding JJJ until his numbers taper off. 

Pick: Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 3.5 blocks + steals (+145)

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