There’s a good chance that if you found your way to this NBA betting breakdown for Boston Celtics at Phoenix Suns, you’re likely killing time before something “super” starts. Am I right?
Boston makes stop No. 4 of a five-game Western road swing, playing its fourth game in six days. Phoenix, on the other hand, is in its second game of an extended seven-game homestand and is one of the better bets in the NBA at 12-9 ATS, including covering in four of its last five outings.
These are our NBA free picks and predictions for Boston Celtics vs. Phoenix Suns on February 7.
Boston Celtics at Phoenix Suns Betting Preview
Injuries
Celtics: Jaylen Brown G (Out), Daniel Theis F (Out).
Suns: Jae Crowder F (Doubtful), Abdel Nader F (Probable), Dario Saric F (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Celtics are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games as underdogs. Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Suns.
NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonPhoenix opened -3 at PointsBet USA on Saturday night, dipped to -2.5 late this morning, then returned to -3, where the number remains at 1 p.m. ET, an hour before tipoff. Boston is landing 61 percent of bets and 53 percent of money on the spread. The total opened at 215, peaked at 216.5 this morning and is now back to 215, despite 82 percent of bets/77 percent of money landing on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAgainst the Spread (ATS) Pick
The Celtics staked their claim in the league’s pecking order with a big win over the L.A. Clippers earlier in the week. Boston, which was without Brown due to a sore knee, got strong efforts from stars Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker (combined 58 points) and won the turnover battle, with only six giveaways versus 16 turnovers from the Clippers.
The Celtics converted those 16 mistakes into 26 points and enter Sunday ranked seventh in the league in points off turnovers, with an average of 19.1 on the season. Boston faces a Phoenix offense that turned the ball over 22 times in its win against the Detroit Pistons on Friday, with those mistakes burning the Suns for 21 points against.
The Celtics defense won’t just be looking to convert turnovers into easy buckets. They’ll also have their heels above the 3-point line, protecting the perimeter from one of the more aggressive outside shooting teams in the league. Boston ranks ninth in opponent 3-point percentage (37.8 percent) and limits foes to only 32.3 attempts from distance per game (fifth lowest).
The Suns jack more than 37 triples per game (seventh-most) and pick up more than 36 percent of their scoring output from beyond the arc. Phoenix could be down two of its better perimeter threats with Jae Crowder and Dario Saric nursing injuries, with the pair combining for nearly four 3-pointers on almost 11 attempts per contest.
PREDICTION: Boston +3 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Losing Brown is a big chunk of the Celtics’ production, with the shooting guard dropping in 26.4 points per game and adding another wrinkle to this Boston offense. While Tatum and Walker can up their offensive output, the Celtics will continue to lean on defense to get the job done.
Boston is giving up just under 110 points per contest and has slowed things down considerably in the first three games of this road trip, averaging only 99.7 possessions per game compared to a pace of 102.5 before making the trek West.
Phoenix is also playing a plodding pace, ranked third-slowest in NBA pace metrics (99.3). The Suns are averaging 109.9 points an outing and have stayed below 110 points in all three efforts so far in February. There’s a good chance they role out a bigger lumbering lineup for Sunday, matching the size of the Celtics up front.
PREDICTION: Under 217.5 (-110)
Player Prop Pick
Suns superstar Devin Booker will draw the ire of the Celtics defense in this matinee matchup and Boston will try to get into his shorts early on, not allowing the dangerous shooting guard to find his rhythm.
Booker has struggled with turnovers in recent games, coughing the ball up 20 times in his past five showings (he missed two games at end of January with a hamstring injury), including four turnovers in the win over Detroit.
The Celtics force opposing guards into an average of 9.5 collective turnovers per game – fifth most versus the position – and also sit fifth in steals per game with 8.8 on the year.
PREDICTION: Devin Booker Over 2.5 turnovers (-159)
Celtics vs Suns Betting Card
- Boston +3 (-110)
- Under 217.5 (-110)
- Devin Booker Over 2.5 turnovers (-159)
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