With the Boston Celtics holding a 3-0 series chokehold over the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference finals, there’s a lack of drama entering Monday’s Game 4. Well, unless your NBA picks include first basket props.
Odds on which player will score the first basket of the game are one of the most fun and frenzied wagers you can place, putting you on the edge of your seat for the first 30 seconds of the game.
I rundown the most likely players to crack the scoreboard first for both the Celtics vs. Pacers with my “First Basket” picks for May 27.
Celtics vs Pacers first basket picks
Click on each name to jump to the full analysis
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Boston Celtics
First basket pick: Jaylen Brown
(+550 bet365)
Is anyone but Jaylen Brown “dead money” to score the C’s first basket?
Brown has drawn first blood in each of the three games against the Indiana Pacers and has scored the team’s opening bucket in seven of the Boston Celtics 13 postseason outings. That’s a near 54% clip and coincides with Brown’s team-leading 24% “first basket” rate in the regular season.
I tried to get cute and squeeze value out of this market with bets on Jayson Tatum and Jrue Holiday to score first... but those died a quick death. At this rate, it’s just about shopping for the best price on Brown to drop the first basket. Some books are as low as +375 but you can find +550 at bet365 this morning.
Indiana Pacers
First basket pick: Andrew Nembhard
(+800 FanDuel)
Much like Brown’s role with Boston, Pascal Siakam has broken the seal on Indiana’s scoring at a very high rate this postseason. Before Game 3, Siakam recorded the team’s opening basket in five of 15 playoff showings — including Game 1 and Game 2 on the East finals.
However, he missed the opening shot in Saturday’s contest (something he’s attempted in seven of 16 postseason outings), and Andrew Nembhard recorded the Pacers’ opening bucket with a floater on the next possession.
Nembhard hasn’t been as active as Siakam in terms of first-shot attempts, but he’s been Indiana’s opening scorer in six of 16 playoff games during the tournament (37.5%). He’s got the hot hand, coming off a 32-point effort in Game 3, and will handle the ball to start Tyrese Haliburton likely out.
Nembhard sits as low as +650 at some “first basket” books, which puts him alongside Siakam and Jayson Tatum. However, you can find him as high as +800 to score the first basket of Game 4.
Celtics at Pacers first basket odds
- Jaylen Brown (+500)
- Pascal Siakam (+500)
- Jayson Tatum (+550)
- Myles Turner (+600)
- Jrue Holiday (+800)
- Andrew Nembhard (+950)
- TJ McConnell (+950)
- Al Horford (+1,000)
- Derrick White (+1,200)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel
