The Boston Celtics are on the brink of elimination as they take on the Miami Heat in the Western Conference Finals on Tuesday night. The C's looked listless in a 26-point shellacking in Game 3, and with that game getting out of hand early, almost every starter on both teams went below their NBA player prop point totals.
Although I'm expecting a closer contest tonight, I'm once again looking to fade a few players when it comes to scoring and 3-pointers made props. I've dug through NBA odds and am here to bring you my three favorite NBA prop picks for the Celtics vs. Heat on Tuesday, May 23.
Be sure to also check out Jason Logan's full Game 4 picks and predictions piece before tonight's tip-off!
Celtics vs Heat Game 4 player prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Celtics vs Heat Game 4 props
Down on Brown
Boston Celtics superstar Jayson Tatum struggled in Game 3 but his All-Star teammate Jaylen Brown has struggled all series. The All-NBA wing averaged 26.6 points per game during the regular season but is putting up just 16.7 ppg on 37.7% shooting in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Brown scored just 12 points on Sunday after being held to 16 in Game 2. While he had 22 points in Game 1, that was still below the O/U on his points total. The Under 23.5 on his points total may look tempting again, but I like the Under 2.5 on his 3-pointers made even more.
Brown has gone just 2-for-20 from long range this series and has also been unable to get to the line, totaling just four free-throw attempts. If Brown wants to make an impact, he's going to have to stop settling for outside shots and start attacking the rim. Look for him to get to the basket more frequently and take fewer threes as a result.
PICK: Jaylen Brown Under 2.5 threes made (-135)
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Miami's Caleb Martin is averaging 19.3 ppg this series and is coming off an 18-point performance in Game 3. The O/U for Martin's points total for Game 4 opened at 11.5 (juiced at about -130 towards the Over) but has ticked up to 12.5 (and juiced towards the Under) at some books.
If you look at the fact Martin has scored at least 15 points in every game this series, you might lean toward playing the Over tonight — but I disagree.
Martin is shooting a sizzling 63.2% from the field while knocking down 3.3 treys per game at a 47.6% clip. Those numbers would be unsustainable for Stephen Curry let alone someone like Martin, who had a 46.3 FG% and averaged 1.2 threes per game at a 35.6% conversion rate during the regular season.
With Martin averaging just 9.6 ppg during the regular season and being held below 12 points in six of his last seven games coming into this series, I'm backing his scoring to regress tonight.
PICK: Caleb Martin Under 11.5 points (+110)
Twos over treys
Jimmy Butler has been incredible during the Miami Heat's playoff run, carrying them with his scoring, playmaking, rebounding, and elite defense. However, one thing that Jimmy Buckets doesn't do at a high level is knock down many shots from beyond the arc.
Over the last two games, he has taken a total of just two attempts from long range and didn't knock down either of them.
Since the start of the previous series against the Knicks, Butler has been held without a single made 3-pointer in six of eight contests. With the Under 0.5 on Butler's threes paying out at plus money, grab the Under.
PICK: Jimmy Butler Under 0.5 threes made (+116)
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