NBA odds are bearish on the Milwaukee Bucks’ chances of winning back-to-back titles.
Sportsbooks have installed the reigning champs as heavy NBA betting underdogs (in the +170 to +175 range) against the Boston Celtics in their upcoming Eastern Conference semifinals, set to tip off on Sunday, May 1.
| Team | Odds to win series |
|---|---|
| Boston Celtics | -210 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | +175 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of April 28, 2022.
Opening odds were released late on Wednesday evening, just minutes after the Bucks had finished crushing the Chicago Bulls 116-100 in Game 5 of their first-round series. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way with 33 points in 30 minutes and Bobby Portis had his best game of the series, chipping in 14 points and 17 rebounds in place of injured forward Khris Middleton.
Giannis posted his 28th playoff game with 20 paint points, passing Tim Duncan for 3rd-most over the last 25 years.
— Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) April 28, 2022
33 PTS | 9 REB | 3 AST | 73% FG pic.twitter.com/hiJE5PK7cs
The Bucks are expected to face considerably more resistance against the Celtics, who have the second-shortest odds to win the 2022 NBA Championship. Boston silenced Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant en route to a clean sweep of the Brooklyn Nets.
Here are three reasons why the Celtics are favored to steamroll the Bucks:
The Bulls were decimated
Milwaukee deserves credit for taking care of business against the Bulls, but the team it faced in the first round barely resembled the squad that cruised to 46 wins in the regular season.
Chicago began the series without starting point guard Lonzo Ball, who tore the meniscus in his left knee on January 14, just as he was emerging as one of the best perimeter defenders in the league. Fellow guards Zach LaVine and Alex Caruso also missed the Bulls’ pivotal Game 5. Caruso was placed in concussion protocols after colliding with Bucks guard Javon Carter, while LaVine entered the league’s health and safety protocols on Tuesday after falling ill.
It's possible the Bucks still would have won even if all three players had been available, but it would likely have been a far tougher series with LaVine’s playmaking and Ball and Caruso’s ball-hawking.
Speaking of untimely injuries…
Milwaukee is hobbled
The Bucks will enter the semifinals without their second-leading scorer after Khris Middleton suffered an MCL sprain in Milwaukee’s Game 2 loss. The three-time All-Star is expected to miss up to two weeks, which could have a devastating impact on the Bucks’ performance at both ends of the court.
The left MCL injury of Bucks All-Star Khris Middleton is a Grade 2 sprain and he is expected to miss the entire second-round series vs. Celtics, sources tell @TheAthletic @Stadium. The recovery of Grade 2 MCL places a potential Conference Finals in jeopardy for him as well.
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) April 28, 2022
Not only did Middleton average 20.1 points per game this season, but he’s also a superb one-on-one defender who uses his length and instincts to good effect against rival wings. His absence will put even more pressure on Giannis, who will be tasked with slowing down Jayson Tatum and protecting the paint against Jaylen Brown’s fearless forays to the rim.
The Celtics’ D is legit
The key to Boston’s first-round victory over Brooklyn was its suffocating defense, especially on Kevin Durant, who shot just 33% from the floor and 38% from beyond the arc. The former MVP never looked comfortable as the Celtics consistently swarmed him with multiple defenders whenever he touched the rock. Boston’s ability to switch 1-through-5 and recover quickly put the onus on the Nets’ role players, who proved incapable of picking up the slack.
Boston also made life miserable for Kyrie Irving, who was held to 20 points or less in each of the series' final three games. Much of the credit goes to newly-minted Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart, who wore Irving down and kept him out of the lane with his relentlessly physical pressure.
The Celtics had the league’s best defensive rating during the regular season and are poised to shut down the shorthanded Bucks once their second-round series gets underway.
The Bucks stop here
Game 1 of Bucks vs. Celtics is scheduled for Sunday at 1 p.m. ET on ABC. Boston opened as 4.5-point favorites with the total set at 218.5.
As of Thursday afternoon, most books are already offering a full range of prop bets — with more markets opening soon.
