An unexpected first round in the NBA playoffs has forced oddsmakers to adjust on the fly, with the Los Angeles Lakers being named new series favorites, albeit narrowly, and the San Antonio Spurs’ title dreams dwindling in light of Victor Wembanyama’s head injury.
Key Takeaways
- The Lakers were the most-bet team to win their first-round series.
- Oddsmakers moved L.A. up from +10,000 to +3,500 to win the NBA Finals.
- Top books dropped the Spurs from +550 to +700 to win the championship after Wembanyama’s concussion.
The Lakers were supposed to be an afterthought for the Houston Rockets, who opened as -750 favorites (88.2% implied chance) to win the series. The Rockets have fallen a considerable distance to their current line of +115, although that still gives them a 46.5% implied chance to win four of the next five games.
Conversely, the Lakers are up to to -135 after opening at +550. LeBron James has never lost a series after taking a 2-0 lead, going 32-0.
LeBron James' playoff series record when:
— Underdog NBA (@UnderdogNBA) April 21, 2026
Winning Game 1: 29-2
When up 2 games: 32-0
LeBron has won 20 straight series when he wins Game 1. pic.twitter.com/TdY5iH1lBl
That’s positive news for the betting public, as Los Angeles was the most-bet team to win a first-round series in the entire playoff bracket.
The purple and gold finished the season 53-29, one game ahead of the Rockets and in fourth in the Western Conference. They also won two of their three regular-season matchups, including both meetings in 2026.
However, the injury absences of leading scorers Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves prompted the oddsmakers to mark the 5-seed Rockets as the team to beat.
The Lakers have also made up substantial ground in the NBA championship odds picture. DraftKings has them eighth at +3,500 after they began the playoffs at +10,000 and were as long as +12,000.
DraftKings still has the Rockets as -9.5 favorites in Game 3. Reaves has a chance to return from an oblique injury before the end of the series, while Doncic is presumed to be unavailable until the second round.
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Spurs' odds slide
Heads turned away from screens and hands covered eyes Tuesday night when Wembanyama went clattering to the hardwood while trying to grab a loose ball.
The 7-foot-4 Frenchman, who set franchise records for points scored and threes made in a playoff debut the game before, appeared to lose consciousness on the court and was later confirmed to have suffered a concussion. He did not return to the game, finishing with five points, four rebounds, one assist, and one block in 12 minutes.
SCARY SIGHT IN SAN ANTONIO 😳
— Covers (@Covers) April 22, 2026
Victor Wembanyama fell and slammed his face off the court while driving to the basket and had to be taken to the locker room 🤕pic.twitter.com/JIpub8b56z
The Portland Trail Blazers took advantage of Wembanyama’s absence, finishing the game on a 16-4 run to win 106-103 and knot the series at one game apiece. The teams will take the floor for Game 3 in Portland on Friday night.
The Spurs went from +500 to +550 in odds to win the NBA Finals at major online sportsbooks prior to Wemby’s fall and resultant injury. BetMGM has them at the shortest odds of all leading operators at +550, while FanDuel now lists them at +700.
The NBA has a 48-hour minimum before players can return from concussions. Wembanyama could still be back in time for Game 3 if he doesn’t need any extended recovery time.
The earliest that a player has ever returned from a concussion in the playoffs was four days, which would be the rest day between Games 3 and 4. Following a typical recovery timeline would put the Spurs’ star back sometime between Games 5 and 7.
Wemby's concussion return timeline: pic.twitter.com/RCDv1M38WA
— WembyMuse (@Wemby_Muse) April 22, 2026
DraftKings still has the Spurs as -550 favorites to win their series matchup with the +400 Blazers.
NBA title odds picture
The Oklahoma City Thunder still lead DraftKings' NBA title odds at -120. The Spurs and Boston Celtics (+650) are the only other teams below +1,000.
The Denver Nuggets (+1,100) and Cleveland Cavaliers (+1,400) lead the second tier of contenders before the odds lengthen to +2,200 for the sixth-place New York Knicks.
