Bucks vs Heat Picks and Predictions: Deer Thrive in Warmer Climate

Two of the East's best teams lock horns (or antlers, I guess) Wednesday night as the Milwaukee Bucks take their talents to South Beach for a visit with the Miami Heat.

The Bucks have been cruising since getting Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton back, and the Heat will be hard-pressed to return serve, themselves missing their two best players. 

The books are predicting this game won't be on the closer side — let's break down where your money should be with our NBA picks and predictions for Bucks vs. Heat on Wednesday, December 8.

Bucks vs Heat odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The Bucks opened as -5.5 favorites, with the line being steadily bet up to -6.5. The total sits at 216.5, up from an opening of 214.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Bucks vs Heat predictions

• Prediction: Milwaukee -6.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 216.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Robinson Over 2.5 made threes (-115)

Predictions made on 12/8/2021 at 8:35 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Bucks vs Heat game info

• Location: FTX Arena, Miami, FL
• Date: Wednesday, December 8, 2021
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Bucks vs Heat betting preview

Injuries

Bucks: Brook Lopez C (Out), Donte DiVincenzo SG (Out), Semi Ojeleye SF (Out), George Hill PG (Questionable).
Heat: Jimmy Butler SF (Out), Bam Adebayo C (Out), Markieff Morris PF (Out), Victor Oladipo SG (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Bucks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a road favorite. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Heat.

Bucks vs Heat picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

That sound you hear behind you? It's a herd of angry deer rampaging their way up the Eastern Conference standings. The Bucks have gone 9-1 in their past ten games, leaping all the way up to third in the East, now within striking distance of the Nets' No. 1 spot. 

And the wins haven't been particularly close, either. The Bucks' average margin of victory in that stretch is 14.3, including a 22-point walloping of the Heat on December 4. Miami was missing both Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo for that game, which will be the case again tonight — a huge detriment facing Milwaukee. 

Not having Butler to harass Khris Middleton on the perimeter will be a huge minus, but the biggest loss comes with Adebayo unable to roam the paint and protect the rim against Giannis Antetokounmpo, who didn't even play in the Dec. 4 meeting. Miami will also be missing roughly 40 points per game on the offensive end without their first and third-leading scorers.

In addition to the considerable talent downgrade, Miami also just matches up poorly with the Bucks, who can counter Kyle Lowry with their own two-way pest in Jrue Holiday, and make the Heat pay for their defensive philosophy. 

Miami forces its opponents to take an astounding 48% of their shots from beyond the arc. Despite Giannis' presence, the Bucks shoot threes at the NBA's fourth-highest rate and hit them at the ninth-highest, which isn't a great profile for Miami's cause. Two Bucks starters (Grayson Allen, Bobby Portis) and their sixth man (Pat Connaughton) are all shooting above 40% from three, while Middleton can torch defenses from distance any given night.

Add to that Anteotkounmpo wreaking havoc on a Heat defense that will be woefully undermanned to wall off his drives and post-ups, and Milwaukee should be scoring at will in this matchup. All due respect to Lowry and Tyler Herro, but they're just not built to return fire in this fight.

Another double-digit Bucks win wouldn't be surprising.

Prediction: Milwaukee -6.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

This total sits at 216.5, and we're counting on the Bucks to help push the issue on the Over. 

Milwaukee's averaged 119.7 points in its last seven games, excluding a 93-point outlier against Toronto in which their two-time MVP sat out. The Bucks sport the NBA's fourth-best offensive rating in that span,  and as mentioned above, should be enabled by the Heat's defensive ethos and short-handed roster.

The Bucks won't eat as much clock with Butler and Adebayo sidelined, as they won't have to work as hard for quality looks. Miami will want to slow this game down to limit possessions and increase variance, but there's only so much it can do against a freight train of an opponent.

The Heat could struggle to hit 100 points in this game, but if they hit that mark, Milwaukee should do enough damage to push this Over the total. These two teams hit 226 last week with Giannis sidelined, so they're definitely capable of topping this number here.

Prediction: Over 216.5 (-110)

Best bet

Duncan Robinson should be seeing a lot of looks from beyond the arc tonight. With Miami so severely handicapped on offense without Butler, their resident sniper is liable to see both more minutes and higher usage, especially with Giannis playing free safety in the paint and deterring penetration. 

While the Heat lead in the NBA in opponent 3-point rate at 48%, the Bucks sit second at 45%, meaning they naturally concede the type of looks Robinson feeds off of. He nailed three triples in their game last week and is 5-3 against this total in his last eight games. 

Given the matchup and the potential for an increased role, we're backing the Over on 2.5 threes made.

Pick: Duncan Robinson Over 2.5 made threes (-115)

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