Martinsville carries unmatched sentiment and significance as the penultimate challenge of the NASCAR Cup season, where championship hopes hang by a thread and every lap at the historic short track demands perfection.
This week’s Xfinity 500 is the crossroads where dreams are made or shattered. Without a doubt, Sunday’s race in Ridgeway, VA, becomes the crucible for the year’s sharpest NASCAR race picks.
With the field tightening, contenders push harder than ever beneath the bright October lights. These final stops on the calendar are about legacies, heartbreak, and the kind of grit that defines a champion. On Sunday at 2:00 p.m. ET, NBC broadcasts not only 500 laps of close-quarters action, but the last chance for playoff drivers to seize their ticket to Phoenix.
Don't miss my free betting picks for October 26, headlined by Kyle Larson.
NASCAR prop picks for Xfinity 500
- Top 3 Finish: Kyle Larson (+180)
- Top 5 Finish: Bubba Wallace (+375)
- Top 10 Finish: Ty Gibbs (+200)
NASCAR Xfinity 500 props and best bets
Tip 3 Finish: Kyle Larson (+180 at bet365)
Kyle Larson arrives at Martinsville carrying a season’s worth of momentum and playoff determination, making him a standout for this week’s best NASCAR race picks. Here’s why:
- 🏁 Short-track specialist: Larson has recorded six straight top-six Martinsville finishes since 2023—including four podiums and a dominant victory. His ability to adapt and attack in traffic makes him a constant threat.
- 🎯 Playoff focus: Larson’s consistency at high-pressure moments keeps his championship chase alive, especially with Hendrick Motorsports providing elite setups when it counts.
- 🔥 Martinsville comfort: Larson’s recent form at short tracks makes his performance at +180 too strong to pass up.
Pending that he qualifies well, Larson is a threat to dominate this race.
Top 5 Finish: Bubba Wallace (+375 at bet365)
Bubba Wallace has matured into a reliable pick for prop bettors, especially at venues like Martinsville, where survival and timing are key.
- 👊 Resilience: Wallace scored a clutch fourth place here last spring, thriving through restarts and late-race chaos.
- 🚀 Momentum: With Top 5 runs at multiple big venues this year, Wallace consistently maximizes opportunities when it matters most.
- 🔄 Never quits: Wallace’s strategy and nerve in the playoffs make him a live sleeper for those seeking value at +375.
This number feels way too big for Wallace, a driver who has proven to be a big threat week in, week out.
Top 10 Finish: Ty Gibbs (+200 at bet365)
Ty Gibbs enters with underrated consistency and the maturity to handle short-track pressure, making him a solid play for this week’s free betting picks.
- 🔒 Steady performer: Gibbs has nine Top 10s in 2025 and nearly always completes races in the hunt, running 97%+ of all laps.
- 🏆 Breakthrough potential: Gibbs’s Top 10s at intense venues show he thrives when the pressure spikes—perfect for Martinsville’s playoff drama.
- ⏳ Consistency counts: Gibbs avoids trouble, and keeps his car clean, making +200 for a Top 10 finish one of the week’s best values.
Gibbs feels like a driver who's just about ready to become a top dawg in the series. Has many similar traits to William Byron's season in 2020. Does that translate into some cold, hard cash for bettors? Hopefully! 🤞
💡 Why these picks stick
Larson, Wallace, and Gibbs blend playoff urgency, short-track skill, and clutch late-season form for high-value NASCAR race picks at the sentimental crossroads of the season. Whether it’s strategy, recent stats, or pure finishing ability, these free betting picks are built for Martinsville’s intensity—and for prop bettors chasing one last big score.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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