Shiners Children’s 500: Phoenix Picks, Betting Odds & Race Preview

Kyle Larson made good on last week's NASCAR odds, taking the checkered flag as a heavy favorite — can he do it two weeks in a row?

Larson again finds himself as a NASCAR Cup Series odds favorite for the Shiners Children's 500 at Phoenix Raceway on Sunday, March 10. With a crowded top tier of favorites, he'll have his work cut out for him.

But, luckily for bettors, we've got a full breakdown of the field and track, with our Shriners Children's 500 odds, and full card of NASCAR betting picks.

Odds to win 2024 Shiners Children’s 500

Driver
Kyle Larson	+600	+650	+550	+550
Ryan Blaney	+700	+750	+700	+700
William Byron	+750	+750	+750	+700
Ross Chastain	+850	+800	+1,000	+800
Denny Hamlin	+900	+900	+800	+800
Christopher Bell	+1,000	+1,000	+1,000	+1,000
Martin Truex Jr.	+1,000	+1,200	+1,100	+1,200
Kyle Busch	+1,200	+1,300	+1,100	+1,200
Joey Logano	+1,400	+1,300	+1,200	+1,200
Tyler Reddick	+1,600	+1,800	+1,200	+1,400
Ty Gibbs	+1,600	+1,800	+1,600	+1,800
Chase Elliott	+1,800	+1,800	+1,600	+1,800
Chris Buescher	+2,000	+2,200	+2,000	+2,000
Chase Briscoe	+2,000	+2,200	+2,000	+2,200
Brad Keselowski	+2,200	+2,200	+2,500	+2,000
Bubba Wallace	+3,000	+3,000	+3,000	+2,800
Alex Bowman	+3,500	+3,000	+4,000	+3,500
Josh Berry	+8,000	+6,000	+7,500	+8,000
Daniel Suarez	+8,000	+10,000	+7,500	+6,000
Ryan Preece	+10,000	+10,000	+10,000	+10,000

Odds as of March 6, 2024.

Shiners Children’s 500 field

Kyle Larson finds himself in a familiar position atop the NASCAR odds board, trading between +550 and +650 after winning last weekend's race and riding a hot streak in Phoenix, where he sealed the 2021 Cup Series Championship, and hasn't finished worse than ninth there since 2021's spring race.

Ryan Blaney headlines the second tier, coming off second and third-place finishes in the past two races. Blaney has, remarkably, finished runner-up in each of the past three Phoenix races, clinching the Cup Series championship here last fall despite not actually winning the race.

That honor went to Ross Chastain, who, in a classic Chastain style, fought Blaney off to claim the somewhat-ceremonial checkered flag. Chastain's logged numerous Top-10 finishes at Phoenix recently, and was seventh and fourth in this season's non-Daytona races. He's primed to contend.

Overall, the top tier of contenders is fairly crowded, with a robust seven drivers trading at or below 10:1 at most major books. As with last week's race, we're seeing a stark contrast between top contenders and extreme long-shots, with just a couple of drivers filling the chasm between the +3,000 and +8,000 range. 

After the introduction of the Gen-7 rides brought mass parity to NASCAR in 2022, last season saw the favorites begin to reestablish themselves in the Winner's Circle. We may be seeing odds continue to trend towards a polarizing split in 2024.

Shiners Children’s 500 expert picks and predictions

Odds listed below courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, March 6, 2024.

Shiners Children’s 500 pre-qualifying favorites

Kyle Larson (+600)
Phoenix didn’t used to be one of Larson’s better tracks. Now, it’s become one. Larson has five Top-5 finishes in his last eight starts there including being seventh and first, respectively, in 2021, 34th and ninth in 2022, and fourth and third a year ago. In this spring race, he was seventh and fifth in the pair of stages in 2022 but had an engine expire late.

A year ago, he started on the pole, led a race-high 201 laps in finishing second and first in the pair of stages and came away fourth. The thing is, while having nine Top-10 finishes in his last 10 Phoenix tries, Larson also has just one career win in 19 Phoenix starts in Cup as well. He is 0-for-1 in Trucks and 0-for-5 in the Xfinity Series.

William Byron (+750)
The defending race winner with 64 laps led and stage finishes of first and second, respectively, in his March 2023 win. He was on the pole and finished fourth last Fall after leading 95 of 312 laps. Byron has six Top-10 finishes in his last eight Phoenix tries.

Ross Chastain (+850)
Chastain won the race last fall after leading 157 laps and finishing third and second, respectively, in the pair of stages. He had stage points in both stages last spring but had a late race run-in with Denny Hamlin that relegated him to a 24th place result. In 2022, Chastain finished second and third. He’s trending towards a win, going from 21st in the season opening Daytona 500 to seventh in Atlanta to fourth last week in Las Vegas.

Shiners Children’s 500 sleepers

Tyler Reddick (+1,600)
Could be worth the risk. While he’s only had just two Top-5 finishes in eight Phoenix tries, both came the last two spring races, with a third-place finish in each. He’d led four career laps led here. His last two fall finishes were 23rd and 22nd, respectively. He’s entering on the heels of a runner-up finish last Sunday in Las Vegas. 

Chase Briscoe (+2,000)
Worth a look. He won this race in 2022 after leading 101 laps. He led 11 more laps that fall, with stage finishes of third and fourth, respectively, and a finish of fourth. Last spring, he came home seventh. That’s why the 24th place run last November doesn’t scare me off. 

Chris Buescher (+2,000)
There is value here. Fords have been quick in Phoenix and Buescher won the second stage last fall and finished fifth in the race. He’s had a pair of Top-10 finishes in his last four Phoenix starts. 

Josh Berry (+8,000)
Could be a perfect match. Berry finished 10th in his lone Cup Series start at Phoenix when he subbed for an injured Chase Elliott last spring. He takes over the car that Kevin Harvick excelled in. Since 2012, Harvick had seven wins alone to go along with 11 Top-2 finishes (24 tries). Furthermore, Harvick has finished worse than seventh in just three of those 24 starts too including a run of 21 consecutive Top-10 finishes from the fall race in 2013 until his final race last Fall. Now, Berry gets the keys.

Shiners Children’s 500 fades

Denny Hamlin (+900)
The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has 12 Top-10 finishes in his last 16 starts in the desert, including an eighth-place run last Fall. However, with this Next Gen car, he’s only finished 13th, eighth, 23rd and eighth respectively with 14 laps led in this span. Prior, Hamlin had five Top-5 finishes in a six-race time range. Two wins in 37 Phoenix starts makes me leery.

Martin Truex Jr. (+1,000)
He was at his best at Phoenix in 2021 with a win in this very race and a runner-up that Fall. Since? 35th, 15th, 17th, and sixth, respectively, with one lap led. He has three Top-5 finishes in his last 11 Phoenix starts.

Christopher Bell (+1,000) 
A solid, but not great track for him. Bell has four Top-10 finishes in his last six Phoenix starts. However, none of them were better than the sixth-place run he had last spring. He’s 0-for-8 in regards to Top-5 results on this track.

Joey Logano (+1,400)
He’s been feast or famine at this track. Coming into last season, Logano had seven Top-10 finishes in an eight-race Phoenix span, including a pair of wins (spring 2020, fall 2022) and a runner-up (Spring 2021). He had also led 612 laps in this span. However, a year ago, Logano failed to lead a lap, failed to score any stage points, and finished 11th and 18th, respectively. 

Shiners Children’s 500 prop pick

Ryan Blaney Top-3 finish

One of these years, Ryan Blaney (+700 win outright) is going to find victory lane in Phoenix. While he’s 0-for-16 in the NASCAR Cup Series on this track, he does have 10 Top-10 finishes in those 16 starts including seven consecutively.

Furthermore, he’s finished runner-up in each of his last three Phoenix tries and fourth in the two starts prior. He’s led 322 laps in this span. Blaney has finished second and third, respectively, the last two weeks.

I like the +700 number to win, but to get full value of other drivers too, a Top-3 finish is the safer play for Blaney. 

Pick: Blaney Top-3 finish (+200 at DraftKings)

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Phoenix Raceway track analysis

Nothing has changed in regards to this track in comparison to the last time out. The cars, though, are different, and once again, my eyes are on the body styles and how they perform. Chevy has no changes, but Ford and Toyota do. 

The Ford drivers led 89% (558 of 624 laps) in 2022 including 248 of the 312 in the spring race and 310 of the 312 in the fall. Hendrick Motorsports led 65 of the remaining 66 laps between the two races, with the only other driver to lead a lap in Phoenix last year being AJ Allmendinger (1 lap, fall race).

Last year, Chevrolet flipped the script. They led 532 of the 629 combined laps a year ago (84.5 percent), taking two of the Top 4 finishing positions in the spring race they led 280 of the 317 laps and three of the Top last Fall in an event where they led 252 of the 312 laps. 

Fords led 82 of the remaining 97 laps, with Toyota taking the other 15, all in the fall race. 

Does the new body style help the Fords regain their control? Can it help Toyota regain their strength that they had in the previous car? Does any of this hurt Chevy?

Plus, NASCAR has made some tweaks to the short-track package again, adding more potential variables. 

Shiners Children’s 500 trends

• Starting position matters so much in Phoenix. 12 of the last 13 Phoenix winners have come from a Top-10 starting spot. Last year, the winners started third and eighth, respectively.
  
  
• Nine of the last 10 Phoenix races saw the eventual race winner get a Top 5 in the opening stage, including the last four finishing second, first, first, and third, respectively. 
  
  
• Furthermore, nine of the last 10 race winners had a Top 2 in Stage 2 including the last three winners finishing second in the second stage.
  
  
• We’ve had five different organizations and seven different drivers win the spring race in the last seven years.

How to make Shiners Children’s 500 picks

NASCAR betting is a nuanced process that can take any number of factors into account, and spans several different types of bets. Fortunately, our How to Bet NASCAR guide walks you through the basics, including how to read odds, different markets that are available, and what to consider when making your bets. 

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