The NASCAR Cup Series drivers are heading to Mexico to race in the Viva Mexico 250, which can be viewed on Amazon Prime tomorrow at 3:00 p.m. ET.
The track your favorite daredevils will be racing on for 100 laps is called Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, and its closest American resemblance would be Circuit of The Americas (COTA) in Texas. From how NASCAR is billing the race, this road course will reward the technical drivers and may punish the Ross Chastains of the world, who tend to burn through their "fuel loads" early.
This week's NASCAR race picks will be looking to back reliable and consistent road course drivers like Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, and Carson Hocevar. My free betting picks explain why below.
NASCAR prop picks for Viva Mexico 250
- Top 3 Finish: Chase Elliott (+220)
- Top 5 Finish: Kyle Larson (+160)
- Top 10 Finish: Carson Hocevar (+110)
NASCAR Viva Mexico 250 props and best bets
Top 3 Finish: Chase Elliott (+220 at bet365)
Chase Elliott leads all active Cup drivers in average road course finish (8.8) and has three Top 5s in his last four road course starts.
Yes, Nashville and Michigan didn't treat the driver of the No. 9 car well, and Elliott has been burning through his backers' cash like the fire will be burning through your old Mitch Marner jersey come July 1. That said, it's not like Elliott has been missing the mark this season.
Elliott has finished in the Top 10 seven times this season, if we count the All-Star Race. He won the Busch Clash and did well in the Duel leading up to the Daytona 500.
He finished in the Top 5 in the COTA spring race and had the juice to finish higher if it wasn't for Ross Chastain's goofball move in the first turn on the first lap of that race.
I understand that the oddsmakers favor Shane Van Gisbergen because he consistently excels on road courses, regardless of the series (Cup or Xfinity). Still, with the price being so tight on him, it loosens the odds up a bit for other capable drivers like Elliott.
If Elliott can stay out of trouble and avoid choking late like the Toronto Maple Leafs in Game 7s, +220 for him to finish in the Top 3 is highway robbery. I have him closer to +150, so you know this is one of my favorite bets of the weekend.
Top 5 Finish: Kyle Larson (+160 at bet365)
Kyle Larson, this. Kyle Larson, that. Everybody plays him. This is nothing original.
I know, we're touting the driver of the No. 5 car once again, but at this price, how can you not?
Larson has finished in the Top 5 nine times already this season. The guy is so freaking good that he's already clinched a playoff spot not even halfway through the season. Y'know, the thing we saw drivers literally crying over not making it in the "NASCAR: Full Speed" Netflix documentary series.
Now, you're telling me I can get him at +160 just to finish in the Top 5 on a road course that no one except a select few has raced on? We don't even need to go through the "Larson is NASCAR's Michael Jordan" sermon again. This is just straight up tomfoolery on the oddsmakers' part.
On road courses specifically, Larson’s track record is outstanding: he has six career road course wins, including recent victories at Sonoma and the Charlotte ROVAL. Plus, he consistently posts Top 5 results at technical circuits similar to Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez.
In recent years, he finished fourth at Sonoma in 2023 and won there in 2024, took fifth at the Charlotte ROVAL in 2022, and notched a victory at Watkins Glen in 2021, followed by a fourth in 2022. He also placed second at Circuit of The Americas in 2021.
Yes, most of these impressive finishes occurred during the adaptation of the Next Gen car, excluding Larson's 2021 Watkins Glen win.
The fact that Larson was upset about finishing fifth last week in Michigan, saying he was "junk all day long," has me wanting to bet him even more. How often do you see drivers get this upset about a fifth-place finish?
NASCAR's golden boy might be ready to pull off another one of his dominant performances.
Top 10 Finish: Carson Hocevar (+110 at bet365)
Carson Hocevar has been slowly starting to make a name for himself. At least, in my books.
This year, he’s already grabbed three Top 10s and two Top 5s. Plus, he notched a third-place finish at Watkins Glen last season, which gives me enough confidence to fancy him in this setting.
However, what really stands out to me are his advanced stats: Hocevar’s got the third-best Speed Rating in the Cup Series lately, and his Restart Rating is ranked seventh. In proper English, he’s not just fast but also great at making up spots on restarts. On road courses, restarts matter a lot more than on your typical 1/1.5 mile oval tracks.
Sure, his average finish (around 22) isn’t flashy yet, but with that kind of speed and restart ability, he’s just a bit of luck away from turning great runs into another Top 10.
If he weren't a young gun and more of an established veteran, I could see this being priced closer to -150. Since the kid is young, the bookies aren't afraid to throw a plus number up there, knowing that most casual bettors will overlook him, especially if he doesn't qualify well.
That said, once again, I'm happy to take a chance on the up-and-coming Chevy driver.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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