🏁Dollar Tree 301: Key takeaways
- Best pre-qualifying prediction: Christopher Bell to win (15%) — two-time winner here can nab first checkered flag of '26.
- Best pre-qualifying value: Chase Briscoe to win (9%) — hard to knock his recent form.
- Best pre-qualifying prop: Ross Chastain Top 10 (36%) — showing improved speed of late, price more than fair.
- Track: Don't abuse the brakes or the tires.
- Weather: Cool and cloudy, chance of rain late.
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Dollar Tree 301 odds: Favorites & full field
Check out the full Dollar Tree 301 field.
| Driver Name |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Ryan Blaney | 20% |
| Christopher Bell | 15% |
| Denny Hamlin | 13% |
| Joey Logano | 12% |
| Chase Briscoe | 9% |
| Ty Gibbs | 7% |
| Josh Berry | 6% |
| Kyle Larson | 6% |
| Chase Elliott | 5% |
| Tyler Reddick | 4% |
Odds as of 8-22. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0-100%), representing the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring.
Dollar Tree 301 predictions (updated Saturday)
- Outright: Christopher Bell to win (15%)
- Outright: Chase Briscoe to win (9%)
- Top 10: Ross Chastain (36%)
- Top 10: Josh Berry (54%)
Who's hot? Who's not?
- 🔥 Denny Hamlin — Four straight Top 5s entering Sunday.
- ❄️ Erik Jones — No Top 20s in last four efforts.
Track breakdown: What wins at New Hampshire Motor Speedway?
- Due to the nearly-flat banking in the turns at New Hampshire, heavy braking is required. The key is not to abuse the brakes, or the rear tires will pay the price.
- The preferred racing line will gradually migrate to the bottom. Running the apron too early can chew up tires quickly.
Key stats & driver profiles to target
- Chevrolet last won at New Hampshire in 2012 (Kasey Kahne).
- Qualifying is not as crucial here as it is at some other venues. Over 44% of prior winners have come from outside the Top 10 starting spots.
Drivers to watch
- Joe Gibbs Racing has the most wins at New Hampshire (14), and has taken three of the last four checkered flags here.
Odds movement & market notes
- I can't imagine Carson Hocevar still sitting at 1% on race day. He typically qualifies well (sixth-best in the Cup Series) and has hovered at 7% for the majority of races on ovals in 2026.
- Hendrick Motorsports hasn't won here since 2012 and has been in poor form overall. Don't expect much support for Kyle Larson, William Byron, or Chase Elliott this weekend.
Outright picks: Winner predictions
Pick 1: Christopher Bell to win (15%)
Can No. 20 finally get first win of the season?
- Track Fit: Two-time winner here, including dominant '24 run.
- Recent Form: Second in four of last six overall.
- Market Value: 16% is the limit.
Risk: Buy-in is on the expensive side.
Pick made on Saturday, 8-22.
Pick 2: Chase Briscoe to win (9%)
Enters New Hampshire in razor-sharp form.
- Track Fit: Three straight Top 10s here.
- Recent Form: Sixth or better in four straight.
- Market Value: 12% is as far as I go.
Risk: 6-for-204 all-time in Cup Series action.
Pick made on Saturday, 8-22.
Best top finish predictions
Pick 1: Ross Chastain to finish Top 10 (36%)
Getting overlooked during a "down" year.
- Track Fit: Top 10 in four of last five visits.
- Recent Form: Seventh with 40 laps led at Iowa, better-than-it-looks 12th at Richmond.
- Market Value: Cutoff point is 43%.
Risk: Only five Top 10s in 24 races in '26.
Pick made on Saturday, 8-22.
Pick 2: Josh Berry to finish Top 10 (54%)
Another week, another track in Berry's wheelhouse.
- Track Fit: Top 3 in both prior Cup Series tries at this oval.
- Recent Form: Rides season-long three-race Top 10 streak.
- Market Value: Not much flexibility here; cap at 56%.
Risk: Steep price is biggest knock.
Pick made on Saturday, 8-22.
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How to watch the Dollar Tree 301
| Location: | New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Loudon, NH |
| Date: | Sunday, August 23, 2026 |
| Start time: | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV: | USA |
Check out the full weekend schedule for the 2026 Dollar Tree 301.
New Hampshire Motor Speedway weather
Temperatures are expected to peak at just 71F on Sunday, with overcast skies. There's a 65% chance of precipitation starting at 6 p.m. ET. If that holds, NASCAR may consider moving the green flag time ahead. Team are expected to have four sets of wet-weather tires at their disposal in the event of light rain.
Previous Dollar Tree 301 winners
| Year | Winner | Manufacturer |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Ryan Blaney | Ford |
| 2024 | Christopher Bell | Toyota |
| 2023 | Martin Truex Jr. | Toyota |
| 2022 | Christopher Bell | Toyota |
| 2021 | Aric Almirola | Ford |
Dollar Tree 301 FAQs
When is the 2026 Dollar Tree 301?
The Dollar Tree 301 will go green just after 3 p.m. ET on Sunday, Aug. 23.
Where will the 2026 Dollar Tree 301 be held?
New Hampshire Motor Speedway in Loudon, NH will host the Dollar Tree 301.
Who is the 2026 Dollar Tree 301 favorite?
Ryan Blaney is favored to win the Dollar Tree 301.
Who won the Dollar Tree 301 last year?
Ryan Blaney is the defending race winner.
How do Dollar Tree 301 props work?
You don't just have to pick outright winners. Top 3, 5, and 10 markets are also available.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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