Things may get weird when the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Austin, TX and the Circuit of the Americas for the 2026 DuraMax Texas Grand Prix.
Tyler Reddick has won each of the first two races of the season, but he's looking up at road course sharpie Shane Van Gisbergen in the betting this week.
My DuraMax Texas Grand Prix predictions and free betting picks dissect the odds for the first road race of the season, and tell you where the value lies on Sunday, March 1.
Odds to win 2026 DuraMax Texas Grand Prix
| Driver |  |
|---|---|
| Shane Van Gisbergen | +120 |
| Connor Zilisch | +350 |
| Christopher Bell | +900 |
| William Byron | +1000 |
| Tyler Reddick | +1500 |
| Kyle Larson | +1600 |
| Chase Briscoe | +2000 |
| Chase Elliott | +2200 |
| Chris Buescher | +2500 |
| Ross Chastain | +2800 |
| Kyle Busch | +2800 |
| AJ Allmendinger | +3000 |
| Ty Gibbs | +3500 |
| Alex Bowman | +3500 |
| Michael McDowell | +3500 |
| Ryan Blaney | +4500 |
| Joey Logano | +6000 |
| Denny Hamlin | +6000 |
| Daniel Suarez | +6500 |
| Carson Hocevar | +8000 |
Odds as of 2-28.
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DuraMax Texas Grand Prix expert picks and predictions
Odds listed below courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of 2-28.
DuraMax Texas Grand Prix pre-qualifying favorites
Shane Van Gisbergen (+120)
Implied odds: 45.5%
Shane Van Gisbergen won five of the six road races the Cup Series held last year, with COTA being the exception. But it's not like he was disgraced here in 2025, as he finished sixth and led 23 laps.
The odds are low, but they might be even lower following qualifying — SVG has an average start position of 3.8 over 12 road/street starts.
Connor Zilisch (+350)
Implied odds: 22.2%
Connor Zilisch's Cup Series debut couldn't have gone much worse, as he limped to a 37th-place finish at COTA last year. However, Zilisch has demonstrated road-course prowess in the O'Reilly Series, winning at COTA as well as Watkins Glen (twice), Portland, Sonoma, and the Charlotte Roval over the last two seasons.
DuraMax Texas Grand Prix sleepers
Christopher Bell (+900)
Implied odds: 10%
Christopher Bell is the most likely candidate to beat SVG in my eyes, and makes a great deal of sense as a Top 3 bet at +265.
Bell has a win and a second in consecutive appearances at COTA, and has six Top 5s in his last seven road/street course starts.
Chase Briscoe (+2000)
Implied odds: 4.8%
While Chase Briscoe has yet to win on a road/street course at the Cup level, he hasn't had many opportunities in the top-notch Joe Gibbs Racing equipment he has now.
Briscoe saw noticeable improvement in his road course efforts last season, leading laps at three separate ovals and scoring three Top 10s, including a second at Sonoma.
It's hard to bet against SVG, but you don't have to if you take Briscoe to score a Top 5 (+260) or Top 10 (-105).
DuraMax Texas Grand Prix fades
Ryan Blaney (+4500)
Implied odds: 2.2%
Ryan Blaney is 1-for-42 lifetime on road/street courses, with the victory coming way back in 2018. He has just one Top 5 in his last 30 starts over such tracks.
Denny Hamlin (+6000)
Implied odds: 1.6%
The price is this big on the best driver to never win a title for a reason. Denny Hamlin has only two Top 10s in his last 22 road/street races.
COTA track analysis
The Circuit of the Americas, located in Austin, TX, is a 3.426-mile, 20-turn road course known for a 133-foot elevation change. The layout is a highly technical one, and the racing surface is notably bumpy.
NASCAR is using the 2.4-mile, 15-turn National Course layout in 2026, as it did in 2025, where the trickier Turns 7-11 are omitted.
COTA trend to know
Youth has been served at Circuit of the Americas, as all five NASCAR Cup Series winners here have been 30 years old or younger.
How to watch the DuraMax Texas Grand Prix
| Location: | Circuit of the Americas, Austin, TX |
| Date: | Sunday, March 1, 2026 |
| Start time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
DuraMax Texas Grand Prix weather
Temperatures are expected to reach 82 degrees in Austin, TX this Sunday, with 13 mph winds and a low 20% chance of precipitation.
In the event of light rain, NASCAR has rain tires at the ready for road courses like COTA.
Previous DuraMax Texas Grand Prix winners
| Year | Winner | Manufacturer |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Christopher Bell | Toyota |
| 2024 | William Byron | Chevrolet |
| 2023 | Tyler Reddick | Toyota |
| 2022 | Ross Chastain | Chevrolet |
| 2021 | Chase Elliott | Chevrolet |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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