Ambetter Health 400: Atlanta Picks, Betting Odds & Race Preview

Denny Hamlin's been a strong superspeedway driver for years, and despite a disappointing result at Daytona and slow starts the past couple of seasons, books are tabbing him as the Ambetter Health 400 odds leader.

Feb 25, 2024 • 14:55 ET • 4 min read
Denny Hamlin NASCAR
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The chaos of the NASCAR Cup Series odds debut subsided with a result many were familiar with.

After winning a NASCAR-high six races last year, William Byron took the checkered flag at the Daytona 500. He will look to stay hot this week with the circuit returning to a superspeedway, this time the Ambetter Health 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

Sitting among the favorites, can Byron go back-to-back to start the new campaign? Find out as we break down the field with our Ambetter Health 400 odds, and serve up Atlanta's best NASCAR betting picks.

Odds to win 2024 Ambetter Health 400

Driver DraftKings BetMGM Caesars FanDuel
Denny Hamlin +1,000 +1,100 +950 +900
Joey Logano +1,000 +1,000 +900 +1,200
Ryan Blaney +1,100 +1,000 +1,000 +1,000
Christopher Bell +1,100 +1,400 +1,000 +1,200
Brad Keselowski +1,100 +1,000 +1,000 +1,200
William Byron +1,200 +1,300 +1,200 +1,000
Chase Elliott +1,200 +1,300 +1,200 +1,000
Kyle Larson +1,400 +1,500 +1,200 +1,400
Kyle Busch +1,400 +1,500 +1,400 +1,400
Martin Truex Jr. +1,600 +1,700 +1,500 +1,600
Bubba Wallace +1,800 +2,200 +1,800 +2,000
Tyler Reddick +2,000 +2,500 +2,000 +2,000
Ross Chastain +2,000 +2,200 +2,000 +2,000
Erik Jones +2,200 +3,000 +2,200 +2,500
Chris Buescher +2,500 +1,800 +2,200 +2,500
Austin Cindric +2,500 +2,000 +2,800 +2,500
Alex Bowman +2,800 +2,500 +2,800 +2,500
Ty Gibbs +2,800 +3,000 +2,500 +3,000
Daniel Suarez +3,000 +3,500 +3,500 +3,000
Michael McDowell +3,500 +4,000 +3,300 +4,000

Odds as of February 25, 2024.

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Ambetter Health 400 field

With another superspeedway track on the docket at Atlanta this week, we're seeing more high-variance odds, with the entire field priced north of +1,000 at numerous major books. 

This indicates a consistent trend on the high-banking, special-package tracks, as drivers will often get bunched into packs in an all-out chase, resulting in more logjams and a greater likelihood of crashes. 

Still, some drivers are better suited to this chaotic style of racing than others, and Denny Hamlin — despite some recent up-and-down results on the tracks — has historically been one of the best. The three-time Daytona 500 winner is also a past Atlanta champ, and sits as a slim outright favorite at most books. 

Also among the top tier is William Byron, who won last week's Daytona 500, won the last race on this track, and won the Ambetter Health 400 in 2022. Not a bad recent pedigree.

Past Ambetter champs Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney also occupy the top tier, trading slightly north of +1,000.

Overall odds distribution for this event is very linear throughout the field, with a gradual decline through the ranks and no bottlenecks or huge odds dropoffs that we usually see at traditional oval tracks. 

Ambetter Health 400 expert picks and predictions

Odds listed below courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, February 21, 2024.

Ambetter Health 400 pre-qualifying favorites

Ryan Blaney (+1,100)

The Fords showed speed in Daytona, and with a similar package this weekend in Atlanta, Blaney poses to gain. Out of his last seven Atlanta starts, Blaney has six Top-10 finishes. He’s led at least a lap in seven of the last eight Atlanta races, including finishes of seventh and ninth, respectively, a year ago. He finished in the Top 4 in the stages in three of the four last season too. 

Brad Keselowski (+1,100)

Had a shot to win the Daytona 500 on Monday before a late race crash. For Atlanta, Keselowski was runner-up after leading 47 laps last spring and brought his No. 6 Ford home sixth in the rain-shortened summer race after leading 19 more laps. 

Chase Elliott (+1,200)

Was 13th in his lone Atlanta start a year ago, but he won the July 2022 race to go along with being sixth in the spring event that season. With this Next Gen car, Elliott has finished in the top two in three of the five stages, including a sweep in his 2022 win.

Ambetter Health 400 sleepers

Kyle Busch (+1,400)

He had a fast car in Daytona, won at a drafting track in Talladega last season, and has scored seven Top-10 finishes in his last nine Atlanta tries including finishes of 10th and fifth in his first season at Richard Childress Racing a year ago.

Ross Chastain (+2,000)

Worth the risk to me. Chastain was 13th and 35th here a year ago, but also runner-up in both races in 2022 and had a car capable of winning Monday’s Daytona 500. 

Austin Cindric (+2,500)

Fords were quick last year, Cindric was running in the Top-5 coming to the final lap at Daytona and has finished third, 11th and 12th, respectively, in his last three Atlanta tries.

Corey LaJoie (+4,000)

A Top-5 (fourth) in Daytona and a pair of Top-5 finishes in his last four Atlanta starts lands him here. 

Ambetter Health 400 fades

Joey Logano (+1,000)

Tough one here. On one hand, he had the fastest car at Daytona by winning the pole and leading the most laps. He also won the pole, led 140 laps and took home the win in this very race a year ago. On the other, that win is also his only Top-5 finish in his last 11 Atlanta starts including finishes on this drafting package of ninth, 26th and 17th, too. He also crashed with those accomplishments on Monday night in Daytona too. 

Denny Hamlin (+1,000)

Toyota has struggled in Atlanta and Hamlin was only 29th and 25th, respectively, in his pair of Atlanta starts in 2022, and sixth and 14th a year ago. Four of his last five Atlanta starts have seen him finish 13th or worse.

William Byron (+1,200)

Should be the favorite. He just won Daytona, won this race last year and has won two of the last four Atlanta races overall. However, three of his last five Atlanta finishes are also 20th or worse and the last time someone started the year off 2-for-2 in victories was Matt Kenseth in 2009.

Kyle Larson (+1400)

Now that this race shifted to a speedway type of racing package, that negates Kyle Larson’s advantage. Larson has never won a superspeedway race and has just one Top-5 in 41 starts on them, at that. For Atlanta, he’s finished 30th, 13th, 31st and 36th, respectively, with his package. 

Ambetter Health 400 prop pick

Daniel Suarez Top-5 finish

Daniel Suarez is +3,000 to win outright, and while it’s intriguing to bet, he’s also had just one career victory thus far and that came on a road course. The safe play is a Top-5 finish. Suarez is a sneaky sleeper here. He has three Top-6 finishes in his last four Atlanta starts, including a runner-up last July. I like him on a Top-5 play on Sunday.

Pick: Suarez Top-5 finish (+380 at DraftKings)

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Atlanta Motor Speedway track analysis

The Atlanta Motor Speedway remains the same as it was the last couple of years. A reconfigured drafting track that’s most comparable to Daytona International Speedway and Talladega Superspeedway. The only difference between Atlanta and those tracks is that it’s one mile shorter in length, meaning that a lot can happen in a hurry.

The spring race differs also from the summer race from the standpoint of ambient temperatures. A cool February day means less track temp and less track temp means more grip for these tires. A July race is a hotter air temp which means a hotter track temp and less grip allowing for a little more separation. 

This race is going to be another one for data in regards to the new body styles for Toyota and Ford. The Fords swept the front row in the Daytona 500, and the Toyotas swept the two 60-lap Duel races on Thursday night, but it was Chevrolet winning the Daytona 500. 

Toyotas looked stronger but they also led the fewest laps for Monday’s Daytona 500 among the three manufacturers. Also, the Toyota camp has won just twice in the Peachtree state and has failed to reach Victory Lane at the Atlanta Motor Speedway since 2014.

They’re 2-for-the-last-19 at Talladega and 1-for-the-last-9 at Daytona. They’re also winless on drafting tracks with this Next Gen (0-for-13). 
Hendrick Motorsports has won three of the four drafting styles races at Atlanta, while Team Penske won in the spring last year. HMS just went 1-2 in the Daytona 500. 

Chevrolet has won nine of the last 12 superspeedway events with this Next Gen. 

  • Among the four races with this drafting package, the eventual race winner won the opening stage on three occurrences (William Byron spring 2022, Chase Elliott summer 2022, Joey Logano spring 2023). Byron was fifth in the opening stage last summer and won the race in the end. 

Previous Ambetter Health 400 winners

The past three winners sit near the top of 2024's odds board, with Byron looking to double-down on Monday's Daytona 500 win.

Year Winner
2023 Joey Logano
2022 William Byron
2021 Ryan Blaney
2020 Kevin Harvick
2019 Brad Keselowski
2018 Kevin Harvick
2017 Brad Keselowski
2016 Jimmie Johnson
2015 Jimmie Johnson
2014 Kasey Kahne

How to make Ambetter Health 400 picks

NASCAR betting is a nuanced process that can take any number of factors into account, and spans several different types of bets. Fortunately, our How to Bet NASCAR guide walks you through the basics, including how to read odds, different markets that are available, and what to consider when making your bets. 

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