NASCAR Pennzoil 400 Predictions, Odds & Picks — Las Vegas Motor Speedway

Robert Criscola - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Robert Criscola • Betting Analyst 11+ years betting experience
Updated: Mar 11, 2026 , 12:46 PM ET • 5 min read

Check out our latest Pennzoil 400 picks, props, and analysis for Sunday's NASCAR Cup Series race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway!

Kyle Larson NASCAR
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Hendrick Motorsports driver Kyle Larson (5) leads at Phoenix.

🏁Pennzoil 400: Key takeaways

  • Best pre-qualifying bet: Kyle Larson (+500) — tops in average rating here over last three seasons.

  • Best pre-qualifying value: Chase Briscoe (+1100) — five Top 5s (one win) in last six intermediate track starts.

  • Track: Proficiency at Kansas, Charlotte translates to success in Las Vegas.

  • Weather: Hot with some cloud cover.

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Pennzoil 400 odds: Favorites & full field

The Pennzoil 400 runs at 4:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, March 15. Below are the latest outright odds, followed by the picks and market-by-market best bets we like this week.

Driver DraftKings
Kyle Larson +500
Denny Hamlin +700
Christopher Bell +700
William Byron +850
Ryan Blaney +900
Tyler Reddick +900
Joey Logano +1100
Chase Elliott +1100
Chase Briscoe +1100
Ross Chastain +1600
Bubba Wallace +2200
Chris Buescher +2800
Carson Hocevar +2800
Ty Gibbs +3000
Josh Berry +4000
Kyle Busch +4500
Alex Bowman +4500
Ryan Preece +5500
Connor Zilisch +6000
Austin Cindric +6500

Odds as of 3-11.

Check out the full Pennzoil 400 field here. 


Best bets card (updated Wednesday)

  • Outright: Kyle Larson (+500) — has a Cup Series-leading six wins at intermediate tracks over the last three years.

  • Top 5: Chase Briscoe (+325) — brought a strong car here last year, finishing fourth and gathering stage points twice.

  • Matchup: Tyler Reddick (-115) over Ryan Blaney — Blaney has just two Top 10s in his last eight races here.

Who's hot? Who's not?

  • 🔥 Tyler Reddick — while his historic win streak may be over, he still ran a solid eighth last week.
  • 🔥 Ty Gibbs — one of only three drivers with multiple Top 5s this year, he's run fourth in consecutive weeks. 
  • ❄️ Austin Cindric — has finished no better than 26th through four races, wrecking out twice.
  • ❄️ Connor Zilisch — his lone finish better than 29th came at COTA, though he was expected to run better than 13th.

Track breakdown: What wins at Las Vegas Motor Speedway?

Las Vegas Motor Speedway is one of the bread-and-butter 1.5-mile tracks in the NASCAR Cup Series. Success at similar venues like Kansas and Charlotte often transfers to the desert.

  • The last repave of this surface came in 2006, so tire management is important.
  • Restarts matter for track position, as the leaders can get away in the clean air.

Key stats & driver profiles to target

  • Kyle Larson is the only driver with multiple wins at Las Vegas over the last three seasons.
  • Larson and Denny Hamlin have also won at Kansas (similar in layout to Las Vegas) at least once since February 2023.

Drivers to watch

  • Ross Chastain has never won at Vegas, but owns victories at Kansas and Charlotte over the last three years.
  • Bubba Wallace led laps and gathered stage points in both races at Vegas last year yet ran outside the Top 20. He is a Kansas winner from 2022.

Odds movement & market notes

Odds have only been posted recently, but I expect Kyle Larson (+500) to take more action closer to race day, especially if he qualifies well. 

Larson is typically loved by NASCAR bettors, and he's qualified Top 10 in all but one of his last 11 starts here.


Outright picks: Winners to bet

Pick 1: Kyle Larson to win (+500)

Larson knows what it takes to win at 1.5-mile circuits.

  • Track Fit: He's arguably NASCAR's best on these types of ovals.
  • Recent Form: Exits a season-best third-place finish at Phoenix.
  • Market Value: He's closed as low as +250 to win similar races in recent years.

Risk: Larson's "checkers or wreckers" mentality can sometimes bite backers.

Pick 2: Chase Briscoe to win (+1100)

Briscoe is being slept on after a slow start to 2026.

  • Track Fit: Briscoe has been no worse than fourth in three straight intermediate tries.
  • Recent Form: Mechanical issues and wrecks have muddied his form.
  • Market Value: Fantastic, for now. He's qualified pole position in three of the last five intermediates.

Risk: There's always a chance that mechanical issues snowball.


How to watch the Pennzoil 400

Location: Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Las Vegas, NV
Date: Sunday, March 15, 2026
Start time: 4:00 p.m. ET
TV: FS1

Check out the full weekend schedule for the 2026 Pennzoil 400.


Las Vegas Motor Speedway weather

As you might expect in the desert, there's virtually no chance of rain interrupting Sunday's Pennzoil 400. Temperatures will be a race weekend-high 85 degrees, but fans in the stands won't be roasting, with mostly cloudy skies expected. 


Previous Pennzoil 400 winners

Year Winner Manufacturer
2025 Josh Berry Ford
2024 Kyle Larson Chevrolet
2023 William Byron Chevrolet
2022 Alex Bowman Chevrolet
2021 Kyle Larson Chevrolet

Pennzoil 400 betting FAQ

When is the 2026 Pennzoil 400?

The 2026 Pennzoil 400 is set for Sunday, March 15, at 4:00 p.m. ET on FS1.

Where will the 2026 Pennzoil 400 be held?

The 2026 Pennzoil 400 will be held at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

Who is the 2026 Pennzoil 400 favorite?

Kyle Laron is the current Pennzoil 400 favorite at +500.

Who won the Pennzoil 400 last year?

Josh Berry won last year's edition of the Pennzoil 400.

How do Pennzoil 400 prop bets work?

There are various Pennzoil 400 prop bets to consider. You can wager on a driver to finish in the Top 3, 5, or 10. You can also consider head-to-head driver prop bets, which vary from book-to-book. 

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Robert Criscola - Covers.com
Betting Analyst

Robert M. Criscola’s road to becoming a Covers publishing editor began with an internship at Metro New York, which eventually turned into a freelance job at MetroBet covering many sports from a wagering angle, including horse racing. He continued to focus on “The Sport of Kings” by writing for shapperdacapper.com, danonymousracing.com, and informer.fanxt.com before joining the team at the TwinSpires Edge in 2019 as a regular contributor and weekend editor. “Crisco” began writing game previews for Covers in 2022 and joined the editing team in 2023.

His best advice for sports bettors? Bet with your head, not over it.

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