NASCAR Straight Talk Wireless 500 Predictions, Odds & Race Preview — Phoenix Raceway

Robert Criscola - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Robert Criscola • Betting Analyst 11+ years betting experience
Updated: Mar 8, 2026 , 07:21 PM ET • 4 min read

Ryan Blaney won the Straight Talk Wireless 500, fending off Christopher Bell, who had won this race in back-to-back years when it was held in Miami.

NASCAR Cup Series Ryan Blaney
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Team Penske driver Ryan Blaney (12) during the Straight Talk Wireless 500 at Phoenix Raceway.

Tyler Reddick is human, after all.

The NASCAR Cup Series points leader finally finished outside the top spot and off the podium, after notching three straight wins to kick off the season.

Ryan Blaney drove an excellent Straight Talk Wireless 500 to end Reddick's streak on Sunday, March 8. Revisit my free betting picks below.

Odds to win 2026 Straight Talk Wireless 500

Driver DraftKings
Ryan Blaney +500
Denny Hamlin +550
Christopher Bell +650
Kyle Larson +650
William Byron +750
Tyler Reddick +1000
Joey Logano +1200
Chase Briscoe +1200
Chase Elliott +1400
Ross Chastain +2000
Chris Buescher +2800
Brad Keselowski +2800
Josh Berry +2800
Kyle Busch +3000
Carson Hocevar +3000
Connor Zilisch +3500
Bubba Wallace +4000
Austin Dillon +5000
Austin Cindric +5500
Ty Gibbs +6000

Odds as of 3-7.

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Who won the Straight Talk Wireless 500?

Pre-qualifying favorite Ryan Blaney lived up to his billing by winning his second straight race at Phoenix after winning here last November. It's his 18th career win.

Christopher Bell, who won the last two editions of the Straight Talk Wireless 400 in Miami, finished in second, while Kyle Larson rounded out the podium.

Tyler Reddick, who made history by winning the first three Cup Series races to open the season, finished in eighth.

Straight Talk Wireless 500 expert picks and predictions

Odds listed below courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of 3-7.

Straight Talk Wireless 500 pre-qualifying favorites

Ryan Blaney (+500)
Implied odds: 15.4%

Ryan Blaney took advantage of a late caution in last November's race here to score his first victory at Phoenix. He'd racked up four runner-ups in the previous seven trips to Avondale.

Blaney has gathered stage points in 21 of the last 22 stages here.

Denny Hamlin (+550)
Implied odds: 15.4%

Denny Hamlin ran too good to lose at Phoenix last November, leading 208 laps en route to a sixth-place finish. He faltered on the final restart and watched his first ever championship slip through his fingers.

Hamlin has led laps in four of his last five races on this course, and is a two-time winner here.

Christopher Bell (+650)
Implied odds: 13.3%

Christopher Bell has won each of the last two spring races held at Phoenix, leading a combined 298 laps over his last four trips. 

Bell collected stage points in six of the eight stages held in that span, all while qualifying no better than seventh. 

Straight Talk Wireless 500 sleepers

William Byron (+750)
Implied odds: 11.8%

A tire failure with only three laps remaining doomed William Byron to a 33rd-place finish here last November. However, he won Stage 1, placed third in Stage 2, and led 52 laps, so the result is not indicative of his overall performance.

Byron won at Phoenix in March of 2023 and has led laps in five of his last six appearances. 

Josh Berry (+2800)
Implied odds: 3.4%

Josh Berry ran quite well here last season, picking up a fourth and a seventh. Only Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin can boast two Top-7 finishes at Phoenix last year. 

Straight Talk Wireless 500 fade

Chase Briscoe (+1200)
Implied odds: 7.7%

Chase Briscoe shocked the NASCAR world when he won here as a triple-digit longshot in March of 2022. Since his win, in which he led 101 laps, he's only led 13 total laps and hit the Top 5 just once more from seven tries. 

Briscoe ran 35th and 18th at Phoenix in 2025.

Phoenix Raceway track analysis

Phoenix Raceway is a mostly flat, one-mile oval located in Avondale, AZ. Its frontstretch "dogleg" adds an interesting element to the racing, especially on restarts, as drivers search up and down the course for all the speed they can find.

The championship race was held at Phoenix Raceway from 2020-2025, and it is expected to return as part of a rotation with Homestead-Miami and possible other to-be-announced venues.

Of the 59 NASCAR Cup Series races held at Phoenix Raceway, 20 of them (33.9%) have been won by cars qualifying in the Top 3.

How to watch the Straight Talk Wireless 500

Location: Phoenix Raceway, Avondale, AZ
Date: Sunday, March 8, 2026
Start time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: FS1

Straight Talk Wireless 500 weather

There is some cloud cover expected on a 78-degree day in Avondale, AZ. Sunday's forecast also calls for 10 mph winds and only a 20% chance of precipitation. 

The track should not be all that hot or slick, and that should lead to qualifying results mattering more. Cooler temps and shade lead to less tire falloff and more grip, making it harder to pass.

Previous Straight Talk Wireless 500 winners

Year Winner Manufacturer
2026 Ryan Blaney Ford
2025 Christopher Bell Toyota
2024 Christopher Bell Toyota
2023 William Byron Chevrolet
2022 Chase Briscoe Ford
2021 Martin Truex Jr. Toyota

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Robert Criscola - Covers.com
Betting Analyst

Robert M. Criscola’s road to becoming a Covers publishing editor began with an internship at Metro New York, which eventually turned into a freelance job at MetroBet covering many sports from a wagering angle, including horse racing. He continued to focus on “The Sport of Kings” by writing for shapperdacapper.com, danonymousracing.com, and informer.fanxt.com before joining the team at the TwinSpires Edge in 2019 as a regular contributor and weekend editor. “Crisco” began writing game previews for Covers in 2022 and joined the editing team in 2023.

His best advice for sports bettors? Bet with your head, not over it.

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