F1 Japanese Grand Prix Prediction, Picks & Odds – Suzuka Circuit 2026

Robert Criscola - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Robert Criscola • Betting Analyst 11+ years betting experience
Updated: Mar 25, 2026 , 02:18 PM ET • 4 min read

Are we in for more Mercedes dominance in the Japanese GP? The early betting odds seem to think so. Let's take a look at the F1 odds and make some race predictions.

George Russell Kimi Antonelli Mercedes F1
Photo By - Reuters Connect. F1 drivers George Russell and Kimi Antonelli.

Max Verstappen is the four-time defending winner of the Japanese Grand Prix, but the F1 odds expect his reign to come to an end on Sunday.

George Russell and Kimi Antonelli of Mercedes top the board for the Japanese GP as the Silver Arrows look to keep firing on all cylinders early in the season.

Our free betting picks for March 29 will come after qualifying results go final.

2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix odds

Driver bet365
Mercedes George Russell -175
Mercedes Kimi Antonelli +300
Ferrari Charles Leclerc +1000
Ferrari Lewis Hamilton +1000
Red Bull Max Verstappen +2500
McLaren Lando Norris +3300
McLaren Oscar Piastri +3300
Red Bull Isack Hadjar +25000
Williams Carlos Sainz +50000
Williams Alex Albon +50000
Aston Martin Fernando Alonso +50000
Aston Martin Lance Stroll +50000
Haas Esteban Ocon +50000
Haas Oliver Bearman +50000
VCARB Liam Lawson +50000
VCARB Arvid Lindblad +50000
Audi Nico Hulkenberg +50000
Audi Gabriel Bortoleto +50000
Alpine Pierre Gasly +50000
Alpine Franco Colapinto +50000
Cadillac Sergio Perez +50000
Cadillac Valtteri Bottas +50000

Odds as of 3-25.

F1 Japanese Grand Prix 2026 pre-qualifying favorites

It's been all Mercedes early in the season, and oddsmakers do not see the Silver Arrows letting up off the throttle. George Russell opened as a commanding -175 favorite, with Kimi Antonelli next at +300. 

The Ferrari camp of Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton sit at +1000 each, and Max Verstappen of Red Bull is at a lofty +2500. You can add a zero to the odds of his teammate, Isack Hadjar.

The McLaren drivers, Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, round out the betting options below 500-1.

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Previous F1 Japanese Grand Prix winners

Year Driver Team
2022-25 Max Verstappen Red Bull
2020-21 Race Not Held – COVID-19 N/A
2019 Valtteri Bottas Mercedes

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Robert Criscola - Covers.com
Betting Analyst

Robert M. Criscola’s road to becoming a Covers publishing editor began with an internship at Metro New York, which eventually turned into a freelance job at MetroBet covering many sports from a wagering angle, including horse racing. He continued to focus on “The Sport of Kings” by writing for shapperdacapper.com, danonymousracing.com, and informer.fanxt.com before joining the team at the TwinSpires Edge in 2019 as a regular contributor and weekend editor. “Crisco” began writing game previews for Covers in 2022 and joined the editing team in 2023.

His best advice for sports bettors? Bet with your head, not over it.

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