Team Mercedes is not playing around.
George Russell and Kimi Antonelli each have a win under their belt to start the season, and it was an Antonelli-Russell 1-2 finish in qualifying in Japan.
Meanwhile, it will be the first time in five years that Max Verstappen and his Red Bull won’t be starting P1 at Suzuka. He failed to advance out of Q2 and will start 11th.
My Japanese GP predictions are looking beyond the Silver Arrows in the F1 odds for a best bet, landing on a Charles Leclerc prop in my free betting picks for March 29.
2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix prediction and picks
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2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix odds
| Driver |  |
|---|---|
 Kimi Antonelli |
-175 |
| George Russell |
+162 |
 Charles Leclerc |
+1400 |
| Lewis Hamilton |
+2200 |
 Oscar Piastri |
+2500 |
| Lando Norris |
+6600 |
 Max Verstappen |
+12500 |
 Pierre Gasly |
+12500 |
| Isack Hadjar |
+25000 |
 Gabriel Bortoleto |
+30000 |
 Arvid Lindblad |
+50000 |
| Nico Hulkenberg |
+100000 |
 Esteban Ocon |
+150000 |
| Oliver Bearman |
+150000 |
| Liam Lawson |
+250000 |
| Franco Colapinto |
+250000 |
 Carlos Sainz |
+250000 |
| Alex Albon |
+250000 |
 Fernando Alonso |
+400000 |
| Lance Stroll |
+400000 |
 Sergio Perez |
+400000 |
| Valtteri Bottas |
+400000 |
Odds as of 3-28.
F1 Japanese Grand Prix 2026 post-qualifying picks
Race prediction: Antonelli to win (-188 at bet365)
I'm not sure if Kimi Antonelli could have dreamed of a better start to the 2026 season.
He opened on the front line in second at Australia and finished second, following that up with a pole in China and the win.
Now, he’s at the front of the pack at Suzuka, the only figure-of-eight track on the F1 calendar. He blistered the track, finishing nearly three hundredths of a second faster than Russell.
The 19-year-old appears to have harnessed the power of the Mercedes engine and car the quickest, and that should show again Sunday.
Best bet: Leclerc podium finish (-175 at bet365)
If not for a slight hiccup down the home stretch in Q3, we could very well be talking about Charles LeClerc’s handling of the Ferrari to grab the pole in Japan.
Instead, he’s starting fourth, but the books are acknowledging his work, giving him the third-best podium odds.
McLaren’s Piastri may have grabbed third on the starting line, but Ferrari does have the better car (so far) on the season. Leclerc proves it at Suzuka.
F1 Japanese Grand Prix 2026 starting grid
| Position | Driver | Position | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kimi Antonelli | 2 | George Russell |
| 3 | Oscar Piastri | 4 | Charles Leclerc |
| 5 | Lando Norris | 6 | Lewis Hamilton |
| 7 | Pierre Gasly | 8 | Isack Hadjar |
| 9 | Gabriel Bortoleto | 10 | Arvid Lindblad |
| 11 | Max Verstappen | 12 | Esteban Ocon |
| 13 | Nico Hulkenberg | 14 | Liam Lawson |
| 15 | Franco Colapinto | 16 | Carlos Sainz |
| 17 | Alex Albon | 18 | Oliver Bearman |
| 19 | Sergio Perez | 20 | Valtteri Bottas |
| 21 | Fernando Alonso | 22 | Lance Stroll |
F1 Japanese Grand Prix 2026 pre-qualifying favorites
It's been all Mercedes early in the season, and oddsmakers do not see the Silver Arrows letting up off the throttle. George Russell opened as a commanding -175 favorite, with Kimi Antonelli next at +300.
The Ferrari camp of Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton sit at +1000 each, and Max Verstappen of Red Bull is at a lofty +2500. You can add a zero to the odds of his teammate, Isack Hadjar.
The McLaren drivers, Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, round out the betting options below 500-1.
Previous F1 Japanese Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-25 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull |
| 2020-21 | Race Not Held – COVID-19 | N/A |
| 2019 | Valtteri Bottas | Mercedes |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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