The testing sessions were saying Mercedes was the team to watch out for in the 2026 F1 season, and that was backed up in qualifying for the Australian Grand Prix.
George Russell blazed through the Albert Park Circuit, taking his first ever pole Down Under, and he’ll start alongside teammate Kimi Antonelli in Row 1.
Meanwhile, it was a nightmarish run for Max Verstappen, whose Red Bull landed in the barriers during Q1 qualifying. He’ll be at the back of the pack on Sunday.
Here are our free Australian GP predictions and analysis of the F1 odds for March 8.
2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix prediction and picks
- Russell to win (-350)
- LeClerc podium finish (-120)
2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix odds
| Driver |  |
|---|---|
 George Russell |
-350 |
| Kimi Antonelli |
+550 |
 Charles Leclerc |
+1200 |
 Oscar Piastri |
+2000 |
 Isack Hadjar |
+2500 |
| Lewis Hamilton |
+3300 |
| Lando Norris |
+4000 |
| Max Verstappen |
+6600 |
 Liam Lawson |
+10000 |
| Arvid Lindblad |
+10000 |
 Gabriel Bortoleto |
+15000 |
| Nico Hulkenberg |
+20000 |
 Esteban Ocon |
+25000 |
| Oliver Bearman |
+25000 |
 Pierre Gasly |
+50000 |
 Alex Albon |
+75000 |
| Franco Colapinto |
+100000 |
| Carlos Sainz |
+200000 |
 Fernando Alonso |
+200000 |
| Lance Stroll |
+300000 |
 Sergio Perez |
+300000 |
| Valtteri Bottas |
+300000 |
Odds as of 3-7.
F1 Australian Grand Prix 2026 post-qualifying picks
Race prediction: Russell to win (-105 at bet365)
It’s the eighth pole of the Brit’s career, and he was dominant on the track, finishing with a lap time of 1:18.58, with Antonelli the closest to him, trailing by 0.293 seconds.
Last season, he won the pole just one time, in Toronto, and came away with his only win of the campaign at the Canadian Grand Prix.
Russell has never finished better than third in Australia, but it feels like that will change in a big way come race day.
Best bet: LeClerc podium finish (-120 at bet365)
The other car that did really well in testing in the offseason was Ferrari, but that didn’t materialize as much in Australia. Charles LeClerc finished fourth, while teammate Lewis Hamilton could do no better than seventh.
LeClerc did look fast at some points of qualifying, and if the Ferrari is indeed in the same sphere of excellence as Mercedes, then taking him to move up a single spot at -120 odds seems worthy of a wager.
F1 Australian Grand Prix 2026 starting grid
| Position | Driver | Position | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | George Russell | 2 | Kimi Antonelli |
| 3 | Isack Hadjar | 4 | Charles Leclerc |
| 5 | Oscar Piastri | 6 | Lando Norris |
| 7 | Lewis Hamilton | 8 | Liam Lawson |
| 9 | Arvid Lindblad | 10 | Gabriel Bortoleto |
| 11 | Nico Hulkenberg | 12 | Oliver Bearman |
| 13 | Esteban Ocon | 14 | Pierre Gasly |
| 15 | Alex Albon | 16 | Franco Colapinto |
| 17 | Fernando Alonso | 18 | Sergio Perez |
| 19 | Valtteri Bottas | 20 | Max Verstappen |
| 21 | Carlos Sainz | 22 | Lance Stroll |
F1 Australian Grand Prix 2026 pre-qualifying favorites
The Australian GP odds essentially mirror the odds to win the championship, with George Russell favored over Max Verstappen, followed by Team Ferrari in Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton.
Defending race winner and 2025 Drivers' champion Lando Norris carries the sixth-shortest odds on the board, trailing Kimi Antonelli.
With so much uncertainty surrounding the new cars even following preseason testing, this is as wide-open a betting board as we've seen in a long time for an F1 race.
Previous F1 Australian Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Lando Norris | McLaren |
| 2024 | Carlos Sainz Jr. | Ferrari |
| 2023 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull |
| 2022 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari |
| 2021 | Race Not Held — COVID-19 | N/A |
| 2020 | Race Not Held — COVID-19 | N/A |
| 2019 | Valtteri Bottas | Mercedes |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
