Seattle Sounders vs LAFC Picks and Predictions: Home Field Advantage Reigns Supreme

Lumen Field always gives the Sounders an advantage when Seattle is at home, and we like that to play a major factor in Seattle getting the win on Saturday. Find out more in our Sounders vs. LAFC betting picks.

Last Updated: Jun 17, 2022 11:43 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Alex Roldan Seattle Sounders MLS
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The eyes of the MLS world will be on Lumen Field this Saturday when Western Conference leaders LAFC travel north to take on the Seattle Sounders. Seattle looks to win their fourth consecutive home match this season, while the Black and Gold play for the first time in three weeks and look to push their winning streak to three.

Following their 4-0 win over Vancouver on Tuesday night, the Sounders are in high spirits, and the return of many big names from international duty will be a boost. Los Angeles may be without their best player, but with 13 different goal scorers this season they’re a well-balanced side.

Can Seattle silence the league’s highest-scoring team? Find out in our Seattle Sounders vs LAFC picks and predictions for Saturday, June 18.

Seattle Sounders vs LAFC match odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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Seattle Sounders vs LAFC betting tips

Predictions made on 6/16/2022 at 6:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Seattle Sounders vs LAFC game info

Location: Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
Date: Saturday, June 18, 2022
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
TV: ABC, DAZN

Seattle Sounders vs LAFC betting preview

Weather

Rain could be an issue for the players on Saturday, with temperatures expected in the low 60s and better than a 50% chance for showers during the match. Wind impact should be minimal.

Injuries

Seattle Sounders: Joao Paulo M (Out), Stefan Cleveland GK (Out), Yeimar Gomez D (Out).
LAFC: Carlos Vela F (Questionable), Ismael Tajouri-Shradi F (Doubtful), Franco Escobar D (Questionable), Erik Duenas M (Out), Diego Palacios D (Out).

Seattle Sounders vs LAFC predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Side analysis

Despite multiple starters being out for international duty, the Sounders thumped their rivals Vancouver 4-0 at home behind a pair of goals from Raul Ruidiaz. Nicolas Lodeiro and Alex Roldan also found the scoresheet, as Seattle jumped ahead on a fifth-minute penalty and never looked back.

While the Sounders have conceded 16 goals already this season, Lumen Field has been a bit of a fortress for them. They’ve conceded just five times in seven home fixtures, and are surging after a rocky start as they balanced league play with their CONCACAF Champions League winning run.

They’ve now won four of their last five matches, and have outscored their opposition 9-2 in the past three at home. LAFC lead the league with 29 goals scored and are among the top teams in the league at outperforming their expected goal mark. Carlos Vela leads the team with six goals but could miss the match after suffering a thigh injury in their last outing on May 28th, a 3-2 comeback victory over San Jose.

They’ve also gotten four goals from defender Ryan Hollingshead, who scored a brace in the win. They lead MLS in shots on goal and progressive passes, while their possession percentage is fifth-highest in the league. Winners in four of their last six, Los Angeles have kept four clean sheets in their 14 matches this season, while scoring in all but one of their outings.

While they’ve won four of their six road fixtures this season, they’ve conceded multiple goals in three of those outings. They’ve trailed at the half in nearly every away match, leading just once at halftime, but have outscored their opponents after halftime in five of those six away matches, scoring eight while conceding none.

Seattle’s home-field advantage has always been strong, and in this series, that has held true. LAFC have lost each of their last four visits to Lumen Field, being outscored 11-2 in that span. Seattle have scored at least twice in each of those visits, and their lightning-fast counterattack will be foaming at the mouth to face the Black and Gold.

Only one team has allowed more successful dribbles this season than LAFC, while Seattle’s success rate on dribbles is seventh-best in MLS. The visitors thrive on touches in their opponents' area, but Seattle has allowed the fourth-fewest touches inside their 18.

They also have conceded the third-lowest success rate on shots, with just 27.2% of attempts finding the target. Sebastian Frei and company have held teams to 4.1 goals below expected on shots on goal, one of the top marks in the league.

If they can continue that on Saturday, they should frustrate the visitors and find enough space on the break to win their fourth straight at home.

Prediction: Seattle moneyline (+125 at DraftKings)

Over/Under analysis

Jordan Morris came off the bench Tuesday night for the United State men’s national team and scored a stoppage-time equalizer in their 1-1 draw against El Salvador, at the same time that his teammates were putting four of their eight shots on goal into the back of the net.

Seattle have now scored on six of their last 11 shots on frame, and Morris will simply add to that firepower when he returns on Saturday to partner with Ruidiaz, Lodeiro, and Cristian Roldan, who were also on international duty.

In their six home matches, Seattle have scored 14 goals and they've looked lethal since no longer having to split focus between two competitions. LAFC have conceded multiple goals to the Sounders in each of their last four visits, and Seattle’s style of play sets up to attack all of their weaknesses in defense.

I’ll be shocked if the Sounders don’t find the back of the net multiple times in this one.

Prediction: Seattle team total Over 1.5 (+100 at DraftKings)

Best bet

Many of LAFC’s points this season have come from losing positions, as they’ve been masters at making halftime adjustments. However, they’ve struggled out of the gate, especially on the road.

In their last five away matches, they've conceded seven times before the break and have also conceded before halftime in three of their last four visits to Seattle. The Sounders have struggled to score in the first half this season against teams that sit back and deny them space, but that won’t be the case here.

Much like they did against Vancouver, the Sounders will get plenty of chances to get out and run. Their trend of lethal finishing over the past few matches gives me every reason to believe they’ll take advantage of at least one of those opportunities in the first 45 minutes.

Pick: Seattle team total Over 0.5 goals 1H (-115 at FanDuel)

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