World Cup Picks

I'm getting plus-odds against this poor Tunisian defense? Sign me up.

They've conceded 11 big chances in their last three matches, with Belgium and Sweden both dropping a fiver on them. Changing managers won't fix the mental miscues and incohesion at the back. 

Japan needs to score goals to keep up with Sweden in the Group F tiebreakers, and this is a great spot to back a more ruthless attack given the circumstances without laying juice. 

Tunisia created just two shots for themselves from open play against Sweden, and that won't get the job done against this compact, low-block Japanese defense. 

Japan held the Netherlands to just 0.78 xG while playing in a low block for half the match. Their counter-attack is primed to punish this poor Tunisian defense that lacks all confidence after a 5-1 thrashing and firing of their manager. 

They'll play patiently, wait for Tunisia to make the mistakes that plagued their opener, and hit on the break as they take an easy three points by multiple goals. 

Yamal came on in the 71st minute against Cape Verde and still managed two shots. He's Spains star man and by far their most dangerous attacking talent. 

Spain have a point to prove here. Combine that with the return of two star players, and the conditions in the dome, and we should see goals.

Spain have the return of Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal that should give them real speed and finishing in attacking positions.

Unbeaten in 14 international matches since March 2025, Belgium enters this clash looking to defeat Iran and secure a spot in the World Cup knockout stages. The Red Devils hold a decisive midfield advantage, where the creativity and physicality of Kevin De Bruyne, Youri Tielemans, and Amadou Onana should allow them to dominate possession. While Iran will look to exploit Belgium on the counterattack, the superior Belgians are unlikely to be as wasteful in front of goal as they were against Egypt.

Despite coming off a quiet club season, Romelu Lukaku looked sharp and motivated off the bench against Egypt, immediately revitalizing Belgium's attack. Having registered at least two shots in each of his last four international appearances, the striker is expected to return to the starting lineup against Iran. Given Belgium's need for a win and Lukaku's high involvement, he is well-positioned to test the vulnerable Iranian defense on multiple occasions.

Belgium's lethal attack has fired four or more goals in five of their last eight matches, making them a massive threat to an Iran side whose games consistently feature over 2.5 goals. Iran’s defensive vulnerabilities were heavily exposed during their opening 2-2 draw against New Zealand. Consequently, it is difficult to see a star-studded Belgian frontline being kept quiet by a struggling Iranian backline. I expect plenty of goals in the Belgium vs Iran clash, with Belgium likely to do most of the damage.

There were enough encouraging signs in the Uruguayans’ livelier second half effort on Monday to suggest that they’ll be bringing their shooting boots here, and they could likely sacrifice some midfield grit to juice up the attack if Cape Verde’s compact defensive structure is holding firm.

This prop feels like great value – and an overreaction to the first round of results in Group H. If the Uruguayans can repeat their double-digit attempts on target from their first outing, this Over will stay in play.

Uruguay were slow out of the blocks in Monday’s 1-1 draw with Saudi Arabia, but the numbers paint a more positive picture. La Celeste had a 1.72 to 0.66 xG edge that night while racking up 67% of the possession.

Pencil in the Uruguayans for a similar share of the ball against a defensive-minded Cape Verde squad, and I like these plus odds for a breakout effort. It’s a pick that feels playable up to +120.

Chris Wood remains New Zealand's biggest attacking threat after recording four shots, including two on target, against Iran. In what projects as a competitive match, Wood offers better scoring value than Egypt's shorter-priced stars.

World Cup matches have averaged 3.18 goals through 28 games, while these teams combined for six goals in their openers. With attacking trends continuing, Over 2.5 goals offers value at plus-money odds.

New Zealand impressed in a 2-2 draw with Iran and looks undervalued against Egypt. With both teams level on one point and draws common early in this tournament, the draw offers the best value.

Argentina can carry this total on their own. They will put away the kind of chances that Jordan couldn't if Austria allows the same space, especially with Lionel Messi and Lautaro Martinez on the pitch.

Austria's relentless press could also lead to a cheap goal for them, as Argentina struggled with turnovers at times against Algeria. 

This should be a match where both teams go for the win, and that will lead to chances and goals. 

I wasn't that impressed with an Austria side that allowed Jordan attackers to get into dangerous areas, while wasting three of their four big chances.

Argentina on the other hand surprised me with how efficient and ruthless they were. Lionel Messi carried the day, scoring three goals for a team that managed just 12 touches inside the penalty area.

But it was Argentina's defense, not allowing a single shot on target, that carried the day. I'm backing them to stand tall as Messi carries them to another win. 

France can beat this line on their own, but both teams are capable of contributing to a high goal count. Their opening game against Senegal contained four goals, Iraq’s (vs. Norway) five. France scored three times, Iraq once. Iraq lacked accuracy in their opening game vs. Norway, but still managed to score (1-4). Knowing that a second consecutive defeat may end their interest in the tournament, Iraq will be drawn into taking risks, and that is likely to lead to more chances. I'd play this to -105.

France have unrivalled depth in attack. They can add top-class technicians such as Rayan Cherki from the sidelines, ensuring their performance level stays high when their opponents fade in the closing stages. Iraq look like a team that may tire. They conceded twice in the final 25 minutes of their 4-1 opening-game defeat vs. Norway. If they wilt similarly in this match, they'll be vulnerable against late French attacks. Back France -2.5 at anything up to -135.