Yankees vs Royals ALDS Game 4 Prop Bets: Man of Steal

Prop bet #1: Michael Wacha Over 14.5 outs recorded

+100 at BetMGM

I’ll admit, I do like the Over a lot in this game in part because I think the New York Yankees will once again get to Michael Wacha, who struggled to generate strikeouts and limit walks in Game 1 of this series.

With that said, he theoretically should stick around in this game. He enjoyed a 2.89 ERA in Kansas City this season as the many fly balls he yielded remained in the yard and were easily caught by one of the best outfield defenses in baseball.

Wacha allowed just four hits in Game 1, and three of them went for extra bases. We can expect a bit of better luck here, and while the Yankees have walked at a ridiculous pace in this series, it’s unlikely things get any worse in that area for Wacha as he’s done an excellent job of limiting free passes this year.

The biggest factor here could be the fact that this Kansas City Royals bullpen was worked to the bone in a contentious Game 3 just 24 hours ago. They were forced to use all but two of their arms in the stable, and that should afford Wacha a longer leash here as he expects a better performance this go-around.

Prop bet #2: Anthony Volpe 1+ stolen base

+550 at Caesars

Salvador Perez has been one of the best catchers in all of baseball for some time now, but it’s been clear that this season has been far from his best behind the dish.

Perez ranked just 23rd among all catchers in Caught Stealings Above Expected per throw this year despite sitting 10th in catching 29% of runners stealing at second base. We can call him an average backstop as a result, and that’s good enough for me to back Anthony Volpe to swipe a base here.

Volpe’s already stolen a base in this series, and has now swiped two in his past four games while running a total of four times.

Considering he’s gotten on base in half of his plate appearances this series and ranks third on the team with a .344 Expected Batting Average this postseason, I think the speedster — who topped the total from his rookie year with 28 stolen bases this season — will be off again and successfully grab a stolen base.

Prop bet #3: Maikel Garcia Over 0.5 hits

-165 at BetMGM

Finally, we’ll fire it up again here with Maikel Garcia to pick up a hit amidst what’s been a strong postseason.

Garcia ranks sixth among all the players in this series with a .312 xBA for the postseason, hitting .316 in all, and will go back to work against Gerrit Cole — whom he recorded a hit against in Game 1 in three at-bats.

The young infielder is now 4-for-7 in his career versus Cole with a .332 xBA, and while he’s left a lot to be desired when it comes to hitting for power both against Cole and in this postseason, I think managing one hit should be more than reasonable here.

Garcia, like many Royals, has also performed better at home, hitting 10 points better at .236. He comes into this one as arguably the most trustworthy bat to back in this order, finishing with a .266 xBA against right-handers in the final two months of the season, and is a proven fastball masher.

There are more than enough reasons to take advantage of this generous price.