Last night was the start of this critical intra-division series, and the New York Yankees took care of business. The Tampa Bay Rays will look to get one back as the two teams continue this weekend battle.
My Yankees vs. Rays predictions like New York to start hot this afternoon as it looks to win its seventh game in eight tries. Meanwhile, the Rays are suddenly in the midst of a two-game losing streak after winning five straight before Friday.
What's the best bet here? Read on for my free MLB picks for Saturday, May 11th
Yankees vs Rays prediction
My best bet
Yankees first five innings moneyline (-120 at bet360)
My analysis
It's time for me to pump the breaks on fading the New York Yankees for a bit.
I've had some moderate success doing so, and most of the bets against New York were simply because I found them overvalued in the market. But now, the number has caught up to them, and they've also proven that they deserve to be favorites in most of their games. Today is one of those days, and I see the most value in the first five markets.
The Tampa Bay Rays have been quite bad this season — and for a few seasons now — early in games, owning the eighth-worst against-the-spread record in the first five innings. New York has bucked that trend with one of the better first five ATS marks, giving it a clear advantage.
The trends are lovely, but the real edge is from the pitching perspective.
Nestor Cortes Jr. will take the mound for the Yankees, and while he hasn't collected a gaudy win/loss record this season, he's been solid.
In this matchup, there is a decent advantage over the Rays lineup. Cortes will lean heavily on his cutter, an offering that has given the Rays issues. Yandy Diaz enters as Tampa's lone hitter with above-average numbers against the pitch. Most of Cortes' problems have been centered around the hard-hit ball, but this Rays offense hasn't barreled the ball much in 2024 with the third-lowest hard-hit rate in the league.
On the other hand, Zack Littell will take the mound for Tampa and has had some substantial success against the Yankees, but in a tiny sample. Today, he's facing a revamped lineup that has hit his primary pitch — the slider — well this season. This Yankees lineup will feature at least four players with a batting average above .240 against it and a wOBA over .300 against it. Forcing Littell to get off his primary pitch should cause him enough issues to allow a few early runs, which will be all it takes to cash this bet.
Yankees vs Rays same-game parlay (SGP)
Yankees F5 moneyline
Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 total bases
We're pairing our best bet with a non-correlated selection to maximize our same-game parlay's payout.
Diaz has been very strong against Cortes, with two home runs in seven plate appearances and a 1.09 OPS. When you look at the underlying metrics, it makes sense. As mentioned, Diaz has generally hit the pitches in Cortes' arsenal quite well. It doesn't get much more straightforward than that. It will be tough for him to make Diaz miss today, granted he's throwing stuff in the zone.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Rays odds
Yankees vs Rays live odds
Yankees vs Rays opening odds
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+126) | Tampa Bay +1.5 (-152)
- Moneyline: New York -126 | Tampa Bay +108
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Yankees vs Rays spread and Over/Under analysis
- Bettors are up +2.86 units in New York for the season.
- New York has now covered the run line in 15 of its last 20 road games.
- Tampa has been abysmal early in games, winning the F5 moneyline in just 35 of its last 91 games, suitable for -21.2 units.
- The total for each of these teams has leaned Under. Last night's game quickly finished that way, and five of the previous six meetings have also all gone Under.
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Yankees vs Rays trend
The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 away games (+8.40 Units / 35% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs Rays.
Yankees vs Rays game info
| Location: | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, 5-11-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | YES, BSSUN |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Nestor Cortes Jr. (1-3, 3.72 ERA) |
| Rays starting pitcher: | Zack Littel (1-2, 3.00 ERA) |
Yankees vs Rays latest injuries
Yankees vs Rays weather
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