Yankees vs Rangers Picks and Predictions: Yanks Primed to Bomb Texas SP

May 18, 2021 |
Yankees vs Rangers Picks and Predictions: Yanks Primed to Bomb Texas SP
It's home run or bust for the Yankees offense so far this season, but they'll have plenty of chances to hit a few dingers tonight against Texas starter Mike Foltynewicz.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
It's home run or bust for the Yankees offense so far this season, but they'll have plenty of chances to hit a few dingers tonight against Texas starter Mike Foltynewicz.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

It continues to be an up-and-down season for the New York Yankees, who are coming off a shocking loss to the Texas Rangers despite Gerrit Cole being on the mound.

The Bronx Bombers will try to live up to their name when they go up against Rangers’ starter Mike Foltynewicz in Game 2 of this series. Are the Yankees worth the price as moderate favorites or is the value with the underdogs once again?

Check out our MLB free picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Rangers on Tuesday, May 18, with first pitch scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET.

Yankees vs Rangers game info

Location: Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX
Date: Tuesday, May 18, 2021
Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Yankees vs Rangers odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

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MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report

By Patrick Everson

After opening as a -170 favorite Monday afternoon, New York dropped off to -150 by early this afternoon at PointsBet USA. As of 5:30 p.m. ET, the Yankees remain -150, but not for lack of wagers. "Heavy action on the Yanks, as usual. They're currently attracting 77 percent of moneyline bets and 74 percent of moneyline handle," PointsBet sports analyst Mike Korn said. The total is down a full run, from 9.5 (Under -125) to 8.5 (Over -115), although the Over is seeing 64 percent of bets/62 percent of money.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Yankees vs Rangers betting preview

Starting pitchers

Jameson Taillon (1-3, 5.40 ERA): Taillon's tenure with the Yankees to this point could be described as meh. His ERA is not what he would like and he has only pitched more than five innings just once this season but he has a solid 1.20 WHIP and decent strikeout numbers. If he locates his fastball well, he can be effective.

Mike Foltynewicz (1-3, 4.60 ERA): It has been a shaky first season in Texas for Folty. The right-hander has given up at least six hits in each of his last six starts and he has been one of the hardest-hit starters in baseball this season. As a result, he is tied for the MLB lead in home runs allowed with 11.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Yankees: Giancarlo Stanton RF (Out), Gleyber Torres SS (Out), Aaron Hicks CF (Out), Darren O'Day RP (Out), Zack Britton RP (Out). 
Rangers: Brock Holt UTIL (Out), Kyle Cody RP (Out), Matt Bush RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 4-0 in Taillon's last four starts as a favorite and is 5-2 in the Rangers' last seven games versus a right-handed starter.  Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Rangers.

Moneyline pick

Want to hear a weird stat that epitomizes the Yankees’ inconsistent start to the season? The Bronx Bombers are tied for the second-most home runs swatted this season with 56... but are 22nd in scoring, plating just 4.0 runs per game. 

Luckily for the Yankees, they get to go up against Foltynewicz in this matchup. The Rangers’ right-hander has struggled giving up the long ball, getting taken deep already 11 times this season. 

The problem for the Yanks is that the likes of Aaron Judge, Gio Urshela, and D.J. LeMahieu will have to do the heavy lifting in this one, since the rest of their healthy hitters are struggling to hit over the Mendoza Line (.200). Fortunately, they are talented enough to get the job done in this one against Folty and a mediocre at best Rangers bullpen. 

All Taillon has to do is not get blown up so badly that he can’t make it five innings then hand the ball off to the best bullpen in baseball, which includes Aroldis Chapman, who has yet to give up a run this season. This price is still reasonable enough to side with the Yanks in this matchup.

PREDICTION: Yankees (-150)

Over/Under pick

The total for this game is an interesting one, considering it has already been bet down an entire run but that number now looks low enough to jump on the Over. 

As we already noted, the Yankees are struggling to score but the matchup with Foltynewicz is a good one for them. He ranks in the Bottom-12 percentile among starters when it comes to average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage and doesn’t miss a lot of bats, ranking in the bottom-seventh percentile in whiff percentage.

On the other side are an underrated Rangers offense that ranks 11th in average and OPS and 10th in home runs against right-handed pitchers this season. While Taillon has some decent advanced stats, he still tends to find too much of the plate with his fastball and when that happens he gets barreled up. Bet this one to go Over at the better number.

PREDICTION: Over 8.5 (-110)

Yankees vs Rangers betting card

  • Yankees (-150)
  • Over 8.5 (-110)

Picks made on 5/18/2021 at 12:27 p.m. ET

MLB parlays

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