The Baltimore Orioles got the better of the New York Yankees on Monday night, winning a tight pitcher’s duel behind the arm of Grayson Rodriguez.
With the volatile Dean Kremer on the hill Tuesday, can we expect the same? Let's dive right into it with our Yankees vs. Orioles predictions and MLB picks for Tuesday, April 30.
Yankees vs Orioles prediction
My best bet
Over 9 (+102 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Dean Kremer, where to begin? The Baltimore Orioles right-hander has been one of the shakiest starters in the league for the duration of his five-year career, pitching to a high 9.4% barrel rate, 40.8% hard-hit rate, and a whole lot of fly balls. That doesn’t fair well when pitching in Baltimore, and it certainly doesn’t work when you’re struggling to strike out hitters.
Kremer has watched his fly-ball rate soar up to 35.8% in 2024, which puts him over 12 points higher than the league average. Against a New York Yankees lineup that tees off on fly ball pitchers and ranks near the top of the league in home run-to-fly ball ratio over the last couple of seasons, Kremer is in trouble tonight.
On the flip side, Nestor Cortes Jr. has his work cut out for him against an Orioles team that ranks third in wRC+ against southpaws. Expect an abundance of runs tonight at Camden Yards.
Yankees vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 9
Giancarlo Stanton to hit a home run
Jorge Mateo 2+ total bases
Giancarlo Stanton has homered six times against righties this year and also boasts one of the higher fly ball rates on the team against RHP (42.5%). Stanton also has Kremer's number, going 5-for-14 off of the Orioles starter.
I also like Jorge Mateo to continue mashing lefties. He’s hit .280 in that split this season and is 3-for-10 in his career against Cortes. Mateo has doubled five times to account for seven hits in 25 at-bats against lefties, and I expect his play to continue to impress down the stretch.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Orioles odds
Yankees vs Orioles live odds
Yankees vs Orioles opening odds
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+125) | Baltimore +1.5 (-150)
- Moneyline: New York -120 | Baltimore +100
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-115) | Under 9 (-105)
Yankees vs Orioles spread and Over/Under analysis
- New York has accounted for 62% of the bets and 66% of the handle on the moneyline at DraftKings.
- The total, meanwhile, has been a bit more in flux, rising up to 9.5 mid-day on Tuesday and settling back at nine with some juice on the Over.
Yankees vs Orioles trend
The Orioles have only hit the team total Under in 65 of their last 138 games (-18.18 Units / -11% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Orioles
Yankees vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Tuesday, 4-30-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | YES, MASN |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Nestor Cortes (1-1, 3.41 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Dean Kremer (0-2, 4.44 ERA) |
Yankees vs Orioles latest injuries
Yankees vs Orioles weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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