A marathon run of games continues for the New York Yankees, who are looking to snap a three-game losing streak as they start a series against the Baltimore Orioles.
New York has owned the O’s for a decent stretch, going 9-1 over the last 10 head-to-head matchups. My Yankees vs. Orioles predictions and MLB picks for Monday, May 11 expect this trend to continue.
Who will win Yankees vs Orioles today: Yankees -1.5 (+102)
This looks like a "get right spot" for the New York Yankees, and I’d play the run line to -120 with an obvious pitching advantage.
Baltimore Orioles hurler Brandon Young has a lot of room to grow. When he’s not inducing chase, he’s finding a lot of bats with a 42% hard-hit rate and slightly above average barrel rate. The Yankees enter this game with the fourth-lowest chase rate in baseball.
A pitcher who cannot generate swing-and-miss against a lineup that won't expand the zone has no path to surviving against a team with so much power.
COVERS INTEL: Young has no pitch outside of the fastball that is competitive, that’s best indicated by his Bottom 6th percentile off-speed run value.
Yankees vs Orioles Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-122)
The ball could be flying tonight.
Young is a chase-reliant pitcher who won’t get much chase. This will cause him to throw competitive pitches, and his Bottom 30th percentile hard-hit rate will be exposed against one of the best power lineups in baseball.
That should do the heavy lifting for this total. I suspect the O’s can chip in some, too.
Ryan Weathers' 94th percentile breaking ball is a genuine weapon, but his 14th percentile barrel rate is a real liability against a Baltimore lineup that has enough pop. Play to 9.
- ML/RL bets: 16-14, +2.16 units
- Over/Under bets: 20-11, +11.72 units
Yankees vs Orioles odds
- Moneyline: Yankees -155 | Orioles +140
- Run line: Yankees -1.5 | Orioles +1.5
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 | Under 9.5
Yankees vs Orioles trend
The Yankees have covered the run line in 15 of their last 22 games (+10.55 Units / 45% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Orioles.
How to watch Yankees vs Orioles and game info
| Location | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date | Monday, May 11, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:35 p.m. ET |
| TV | YES, MASN |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Ryan Weathers (2-2, 3.03 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher | Brandon Young (3-1, 4.35 ERA) |
Yankees vs Orioles latest injuries
Yankees vs Orioles weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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